Essays on Risk Modeling. Applications to Portfolio and Risk Management (summary section only)

In this thesis we deal with the concept of risk. The objective is to bring together and conclude on some normative information regarding quantitative portfolio management and risk assessment. The first essay concentrates on return dependency. We propose an algorithm for classifying markets into rising and falling. Given the algorithm, we derive a statistic: the Trend Switch Probability, for detection of long-term return dependency in the first moment. The empirical results suggest that the Trend Switch Probability is robust over various volatility specifications. The serial dependency in bear and bull markets behaves however differently. It is strongly positive in rising market whereas in bear markets it is closer to a random walk. Realized volatility, a technique for estimating volatility from high frequency data, is investigated in essays two and three. In the second essay we find, when measuring realized variance on a set of German stocks, that the second moment dependency structure is highly unstable and changes randomly. Results also suggest that volatility is non-stationary from time to time. In the third essay we examine the impact from market microstructure on the error between estimated realized volatility and the volatility of the underlying process. With simulation-based techniques we show that autocorrelation in returns leads to biased variance estimates and that lower sampling frequency and non-constant volatility increases the error variation between the estimated variance and the variance of the underlying process. From these essays we can conclude that volatility is not easily estimated, even from high frequency data. It is neither very well behaved in terms of stability nor dependency over time. Based on these observations, we would recommend the use of simple, transparent methods that are likely to be more robust over differing volatility regimes than models with a complex parameter universe. In analyzing long-term return dependency in the first moment we find that the Trend Switch Probability is a robust estimator. This is an interesting area for further research, with important implications for active asset allocation.

Functional limitations and quality of life in schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders

There is substantial evidence of the decreased functional capacity, especially everyday functioning, of people with psychotic disorder in clinical settings, but little research about it in the general population. The aim of the present study was to provide information on the magnitude of functional capacity problems in persons with psychotic disorder compared with the general population. It estimated the prevalence and severity of limitations in vision, mobility, everyday functioning and quality of life of persons with psychotic disorder in the Finnish population and determined the factors affecting them. This study is based on the Health 2000 Survey, which is a nationally representative survey of 8028 Finns aged 30 and older. The psychotic diagnoses of the participants were assessed in the Psychoses of Finland survey, a substudy of Health 2000. The everyday functioning of people with schizophrenia is studied widely, but one important factor, mobility has been neglected. Persons with schizophrenia and other non-affective psychotic disorders, but not affective psychoses had a significantly increased risk of having both self-reported and test-based mobility limitations as well as weak handgrip strength. Schizophrenia was associated independently with mobility limitations even after controlling for lifestyle-related factors and chronic medical conditions. Another significant factor associated with problems in everyday functioning in participants with schizophrenia was reduced visual acuity. Their vision was examined significantly less often during the five years before the visual acuity measurement than the general population. In general, persons with schizophrenia and other non-affective psychotic disorder had significantly more limitations in everyday functioning, deficits in verbal fluency and in memory than the general population. More severe negative symptoms, depression, older age, verbal memory deficits, worse expressive speech and reduced distance vision were associated with limitations in everyday functioning. Of all the psychotic disorders, schizoaffective disorder was associated with the largest losses of quality of life, and bipolar I disorder with equal or smaller losses than schizophrenia. However, the subjective loss of qualify of life associated with psychotic disorders may be smaller than objective disability, which warrants attention. Depressive symptoms were the most important determinant of poor quality of life in all psychotic disorders. In conclusion, subjects with psychotic disorders need regular somatic health monitoring. Also, health care workers should evaluate the overall quality of life and depression of subjects with psychotic disorders in order to provide them with the basic necessities of life.