21 resultados para 150602 Tourism Forecasting
Resumo:
Tourism is one of important livelihoods in Lapland. Christmas tourism was launched in the early 1980s and it became a success story - being labelled as the most epochal tourism product in Finland. Hence, today Christmas tourists are one of the most significant foreign groups arriving to Lapland during the winter season and contributing considerably to the economics of the northeastern periphery of the EU. Christmas tourism concentrates around Father Christmas who uses reindeer for transportation. The Sämi are the only indigenous people in the EU. They are all stereotypically perceived to be reindeer herders. Somehow these three, that is, Santa Claus, reindeer and the Sämi, have been incorporated into same fairytale dominion. In practice, this has happened by using the most visible cultural but also significant identity marker of the Sämi, the Sämi costume. This, in turn, has created controversy over authenticity due to manners in which the costume is used in tourism - often in imitational, mismatched forms by non-Sämi. In this thesis, after relevant literature review I intend to establish how the Sâmi are represented in Christmas tourism through visual data consisting of ten images from three foreign sources. Then I clarify why and to whom it matters of how the Sâmi are represented in Christmas tourism with the aid of 65 questionnaires and nineteen expert interviews collected mainly in the Finnish Sâmi Home Region in October 2009. Through the multiplicity of the voices of various interest and ethnic groups and by using critical discourse analysis I attempt to give an overview of the respondents' opinions and look at some preliminary solutions to the controversy. Based on my data, the non-Sami appear to accept the Sami costume usage in Christmas tourism most readily. Consequently, respect and attitudinal changes have become the respondents' propositions in addition to common set of rules of how the Sami image could be appropriated without violating the integrity of the Sami people, or a similar system of S¿m¡ Duodji trademark guaranteeing the authenticity of the tourism products. Additionally, though half of the interviewees explicate Sami presence in Christmas tourism by adding local flavour to otherwise commercial enterprise, the other half see no rationale to connect facts with fiction, that is, the Sami with Santa Claus.
Resumo:
In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).
Resumo:
Tämän pro gradu-tutkielman tarkoitus on tutkia, miten reilun kaupan banaania tuottavan El Guabon pienten banaaninviljelijöiden järjestön Asoguabon reilun turismin projekti on rakennettu. Projektin muotoutumista tutkitaan tässä työssä kahdesta eri näkökulmasta: siitä, miksi ja miten Asoguabo on monipuolistanut viljelystä turismiin, sekä siitä, millainen kuva projektista on rakennettu markkinoinnin kautta ja miten reilun kaupan mainonnasta tuttuja ilmiöitä on hyödynnetty reilun turismin rakentamisessa. Tutkielman teoreettisena taustana on maaseudun muutoksia tarkasteleva uuden ruraliteetin käsite. Turismi on viime vuosikymmenten aikana muuttunut, ja matkailijat etsivät yhä enemmän aitoja ja autenttisia matkailukokemuksia. Samanaikaisesti turismia on tuotteistettu korostamalla sen tiettyjä, kestävän kehityksen mukaisia piirteitä, ja erityisesti kehittyvissä maissa turismia markkinoidaan usein vaihtoehtoisena, yhteisöpohjaisena tai ekoturismina. Reilu turismi on uutena käsitteenä tullut mukaan tähän laajaan kirjoon, ja tämä tutkielma käsitteleekin Asoguabon projektia nimenomaan reilun turismin näkökulmasta. Tämä tutkielma on tapaustutkimus Asoguabon turismiprojektista, ja pohjautuu kuukauden pituiseen kenttätyöhön Ecuadorissa tammikussa 2010 sekä kirjoittajan aiempiin kokemuksiin Asoguabosta. Aineisto koostuu 21 puoli-strukturoidusta laadullisesta haastattelusta kuudentoista informantin kanssa, joista suurin osa oli hyvin läheisesti tekemisissä projektin kanssa. Tämän lisäksi aineistonkeruussa on käytetty havainnointia sekä projektin markkinointimateriaalien sisällönanalyysia. Tutkielma osoittaa reilun turismin projektin sisältävän monia haasteita ennen kuin se voi saavuttaa tavoitteensa tuottaa lisätuloja Asoguabon toimintaan. Tutkimushetkellä projekti hyödytti suoraan pääasiassa muutamia järjestön viljelijöitä, lähinnä niitä, jotka toimivat projektissa oppaina. Nämä oppaat hyötyvät projektista saamalla pieniä lisätuloja, kasvattamalla sosiaalista pääomaansa, sekä saamalla mahdollisuuden oppia muun muassa osallistumalla kursseille. Tutkimuksen keskeiset tulokset osoittavat myös, kuinka vuorovaikutus-ongelmat projektin eri toimijoiden välillä vaikeuttavat tiedonkulkua ja täten reilun turismin toimintaa. Nämä ongelmat myös lisäävät epätietoisuutta Asoguabon muiden viljelijöiden parissa. Lisäksi tutkimus osoittaa, kuinka reilun turismin projektin mainonnassa käytetään osittain samoja keinoja kuin reilun kaupan tuotteiden mainonnassa, joskin tuottajia on kuvattu mainosmateriaaleissa yllättävän vähän ja pääosassa ovat usein eurooppalaiset turistit.
Resumo:
Tourism is one of important livelihoods in Lapland. Christmas tourism was launched in the early 1980s and it became a success story - being labelled as the most epochal tourism product in Finland. Hence, today Christmas tourists are one of the most significant foreign groups arriving to Lapland during the winter season and contributing considerably to the economics of the northeastern periphery of the EU. Christmas tourism concentrates around Father Christmas who uses reindeer for transportation. The Sämi are the only indigenous people in the EU. They are all stereotypically perceived to be reindeer herders. Somehow these three, that is, Santa Claus, reindeer and the Sämi, have been incorporated into same fairytale dominion. In practice, this has happened by using the most visible cultural but also significant identity marker of the Sämi, the Sämi costume. This, in turn, has created controversy over authenticity due to manners in which the costume is used in tourism - often in imitational, mismatched forms by non-Sämi. In this thesis, after relevant literature review I intend to establish how the Sâmi are represented in Christmas tourism through visual data consisting of ten images from three foreign sources. Then I clarify why and to whom it matters of how the Sâmi are represented in Christmas tourism with the aid of 65 questionnaires and nineteen expert interviews collected mainly in the Finnish Sâmi Home Region in October 2009. Through the multiplicity of the voices of various interest and ethnic groups and by using critical discourse analysis I attempt to give an overview of the respondents' opinions and look at some preliminary solutions to the controversy. Based on my data, the non-Sami appear to accept the Sami costume usage in Christmas tourism most readily. Consequently, respect and attitudinal changes have become the respondents' propositions in addition to common set of rules of how the Sami image could be appropriated without violating the integrity of the Sami people, or a similar system of S¿m¡ Duodji trademark guaranteeing the authenticity of the tourism products. Additionally, though half of the interviewees explicate Sami presence in Christmas tourism by adding local flavour to otherwise commercial enterprise, the other half see no rationale to connect facts with fiction, that is, the Sami with Santa Claus.
Resumo:
The tourism development nexus in southern Africa involves highly topical issues related to tourism planning, power relations, community participation, and natural resources. Namibia offers a particularly interesting context for the study of these issues due to its colonial legacy, vast tourism potential, recently adopted tourism policy and community-based approaches to tourism and natural resource management. This study is an interdisciplinary endeavour to analyse the role of tourism in Namibia s post-apartheid transformation process by focusing on Namibian tourism policy and local tourism enterprises' policy knowledge. Major attention is paid to how the tourism policy's national development objectives are understood and conceptualised by the representatives of different tourism enterprises and the ways in which they relate to the practical needs of the enterprises. Through such local policy knowledge the study explores various opportunities, challenges and constraints related to the promotion of tourism as a development strategy. The study utilises a political economy approach to tourism and development through three current and interrelated discourses which are relevant in the Namibian context. These are tourism, power and inequality, tourism and sustainable development, and tourism and poverty reduction. The qualitative research material was gathered in Namibia in 2006-2007 and 2008. This material consists of 34 semi-structured interviews in 16 tourism enterprises, including private trophy hunting farms and private lodges, small tour operators and community-based tourism enterprises. In addition, the research material consists of observations in the enterprises, and 37 informal and 23 expert interviews. The findings indicate that in the light of local tourism enterprises the tourism policy objectives appear more complex and ambiguous. Furthermore, they involve multiple meanings and interpretations which reflect the socio-economic stratification of the informants and Namibian society, together with the professional stratification of the tourism enterprises and restrictions on the capacity of tourism to address the development objectives. In the light of such findings it is obvious that aspects of power and inequality affect the tourism development nexus in Namibia. The study concludes that, as in the case of other southern African countries, in order to promote sustainable development and reduce poverty, Namibia should not only target tourism growth but pay attention to who benefits from that growth and how. From a political economy point of view, it is important that prevailing structural challenges are addressed equally in the planning of tourism, development and natural resource management. Such approach would help the Namibian majority to enjoy the benefits of increasing tourism in the country.