33 resultados para Rare event probability


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We report a measurement of the top quark mass $M_t$ in the dilepton decay channel $t\bar{t}\to b\ell'^{+}\nu'_\ell\bar{b}\ell^{-}\bar{\nu}_{\ell}$. Events are selected with a neural network which has been directly optimized for statistical precision in top quark mass using neuroevolution, a technique modeled on biological evolution. The top quark mass is extracted from per-event probability densities that are formed by the convolution of leading order matrix elements and detector resolution functions. The joint probability is the product of the probability densities from 344 candidate events in 2.0 fb$^{-1}$ of $p\bar{p}$ collisions collected with the CDF II detector, yielding a measurement of $M_t= 171.2\pm 2.7(\textrm{stat.})\pm 2.9(\textrm{syst.})\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$.

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We present a measurement of the top quark mass in the all-hadronic channel (\tt $\to$ \bb$q_{1}\bar{q_{2}}q_{3}\bar{q_{4}}$) using 943 pb$^{-1}$ of \ppbar collisions at $\sqrt {s} = 1.96$ TeV collected at the CDF II detector at Fermilab (CDF). We apply the standard model production and decay matrix-element (ME) to $\ttbar$ candidate events. We calculate per-event probability densities according to the ME calculation and construct template models of signal and background. The scale of the jet energy is calibrated using additional templates formed with the invariant mass of pairs of jets. These templates form an overall likelihood function that depends on the top quark mass and on the jet energy scale (JES). We estimate both by maximizing this function. Given 72 observed events, we measure a top quark mass of 171.1 $\pm$ 3.7 (stat.+JES) $\pm$ 2.1 (syst.) GeV/$c^{2}$. The combined uncertainty on the top quark mass is 4.3 GeV/$c^{2}$.

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We report a measurement of the top quark mass $M_t$ in the dilepton decay channel $t\bar{t}\to b\ell'^{+}\nu'_\ell\bar{b}\ell^{-}\bar{\nu}_{\ell}$. Events are selected with a neural network which has been directly optimized for statistical precision in top quark mass using neuroevolution, a technique modeled on biological evolution. The top quark mass is extracted from per-event probability densities that are formed by the convolution of leading order matrix elements and detector resolution functions. The joint probability is the product of the probability densities from 344 candidate events in 2.0 fb$^{-1}$ of $p\bar{p}$ collisions collected with the CDF II detector, yielding a measurement of $M_t= 171.2\pm 2.7(\textrm{stat.})\pm 2.9(\textrm{syst.})\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$.

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It has been suggested that semantic information processing is modularized according to the input form (e.g., visual, verbal, non-verbal sound). A great deal of research has concentrated on detecting a separate verbal module. Also, it has traditionally been assumed in linguistics that the meaning of a single clause is computed before integration to a wider context. Recent research has called these views into question. The present study explored whether it is reasonable to assume separate verbal and nonverbal semantic systems in the light of the evidence from event-related potentials (ERPs). The study also provided information on whether the context influences processing of a single clause before the local meaning is computed. The focus was on an ERP called N400. Its amplitude is assumed to reflect the effort required to integrate an item to the preceding context. For instance, if a word is anomalous in its context, it will elicit a larger N400. N400 has been observed in experiments using both verbal and nonverbal stimuli. Contents of a single sentence were not hypothesized to influence the N400 amplitude. Only the combined contents of the sentence and the picture were hypothesized to influence the N400. The subjects (n = 17) viewed pictures on a computer screen while hearing sentences through headphones. Their task was to judge the congruency of the picture and the sentence. There were four conditions: 1) the picture and the sentence were congruent and sensible, 2) the sentence and the picture were congruent, but the sentence ended anomalously, 3) the picture and the sentence were incongruent but sensible, 4) the picture and the sentence were incongruent and anomalous. Stimuli from the four conditions were presented in a semi-randomized sequence. Their electroencephalography was simultaneously recorded. ERPs were computed for the four conditions. The amplitude of the N400 effect was largest in the incongruent sentence-picture -pairs. The anomalously ending sentences did not elicit a larger N400 than the sensible sentences. The results suggest that there is no separate verbal semantic system, and that the meaning of a single clause is not processed independent of the context.

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The role of the immune system is to protect an organism against pathogens while maintaining tolerance against self. T cells are an essential component of the immune system and they develop in the thymus. The AIRE (autoimmune regulator) gene product plays an important role in T cell development, as it promotes expression of peripheral tissue antigens in the thymus. Developing T cells, thymocytes, which recognize self-antigens with high affinity are deleted. However, this deletion process is not perfect and not all autoreactive T cells are destroyed. When the distinction between self and non-self fails, tolerance breaks and the immune system attacks the host s own tissues. This results in autoimmunity. Regulatory T cells contribute to the maintenance of self-tolerance. They can actively suppress the function of autoreactive cells. Several populations of cells with regulatory properties have been described, but the best characterized population is the natural regulatory T cells (Treg cells), which develop in the thymus and express the transcription factor FOXP3. The thymic development of Treg cells in humans is the subject of this thesis. Thymocytes at different developmental stages were analyzed using flow cytometry. The CD4-CD8- double-negative (DN) thymocytes are the earliest T cell precursors in the T cell lineage. My results show that the Treg cell marker FOXP3 is up-regulated already in a subset of these DN thymocytes. FOXP3+ cells were also found among the more mature CD4+CD8+ double-positive (DP) cells and among the CD4+ and CD8+ single-positive (SP) thymocytes. The different developmental stages of the FOXP3+ thymocytes were isolated and their gene expression examined by quantitative PCR. T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire analysis was used to compare these different thymocyte populations. My data show that in humans commitment to the Treg cell lineage is an early event and suggest that the development of Treg cells follows a linear developmental pathway, FOXP3+ DN precursors evolving through the DP stage to become mature CD4+ Treg cells. Most T cells have only one kind of TCR on their cell surface, but a small fraction of cells expresses two different TCRs. My results show that the expression of two different TCRs is enriched among Treg cells. Furthermore, both receptors were capable of transmitting signals when bound by a ligand. By extrapolating flow cytometric data, it was estimated that the majority of peripheral blood Treg cells are indeed dual-specific. The high frequency of dual-specific cells among human Treg cells suggests that dual-specificity has a role in directing these cells to the Treg cell lineage. It is known that both genetic predisposition and environmental factors influence the development of autoimmunity. It is also known that the dysfunction or absence of Treg cells leads to the development of autoimmune manifestations. APECED (autoimmune polyendocrinopathy-candidiasis-ectodermal dystrophy) is a rare monogenic autoimmune disease, caused by mutations in the AIRE gene. In the absence of AIRE gene product, deletion of self-specific T cells is presumably disturbed and autoreactive T cells escape to the periphery. I examined whether Treg cells are also affected in APECED. I found that the frequency of FOXP3+ Treg cells and the level of FOXP3 expression were significantly lower in APECED patients than in controls. Additionally, when studied in cell cultures, the suppressive capacity of the patients' Treg cells was impaired. Additionally, repertoire analysis showed that the TCR repertoire of Treg cells was altered. These results suggest that AIRE contributes to the development of Treg cells in humans and the selection of Treg cells is impaired in APECED patients. In conclusion, my thesis elucidates the developmental pathway of Treg cells in humans. The differentiation of Tregs begins early during thymic development and both the cells dual-specificity and AIRE probably affect the final commitment of Treg cells.

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Rare-gas chemistry is of growing interest, and the recent advances include the "insertion" of a Xe atom into OH and water in the rare-gas hydrides HXeO and HXeOH. The insertion of Xe atoms into the H-C bonds of hydrocarbons was also demonstrated for HXeCC, HXeCCH and HXeCCXeH, the last of which was the first rare-gas hydride containing two rare-gas atoms. We describe the preparation and characterization of a new rare-gas compound, HXeOXeH. HXeOXeH was prepared in solid xenon by photolysis of a suitable precursor, for example water, and subsequent mobilization of the photoproducts. The experimental identification was carried out by FTIR spectroscopy, isotopic substitution and by use of various precursors. The photolytical and thermal stability of the new rare-gas hydride was also studied. The experimental work was supported by extensive quantum chemical calculations provided by our co-workers. HXeOXeH forms in a cryogenic xenon matrix from neutral O and H atoms in a two-step diffusion-controlled process involving HXeO as an intermediate [reactions (1) and (2)]. This formation mechanism is unique in that a rare-gas hydride is formed from another rare-gas hydride. H + Xe + O → HXeO (1) HXeO + Xe + H → HXeOXeH (2) Similarly to other rare-gas hydrides, HXeOXeH has a strongly IR-active H-Xe stretching vibration, allowing its spectral detection at 1379.3 cm-1. HXeOXeH is a very high-energy metastable species, yet thermally more stable than many other rare-gas hydrides. The calculated bending barrier of 0.57 eV, is not enough to explain the observed stability, and HXeOXeH might be affected by additional stabilization from the solid xenon environment. Chemical bonding between xenon and environmentally abundant species like water is of particular importance due to the “missing-xenon” problem. The relatively high thermal stability of HXeOXeH compared to other oxygen containing rare-gas compounds is relevant in this respect. Our work also raises the possibility of polymeric (–Xe–O)n networks, similarly to the computationally studied (XeCC)n polymers.

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Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

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Human actions cause destruction and fragmentation of natural habitats, predisposing populations to loss of genetic diversity and inbreeding, which may further decrease their fitness and survival. Understanding these processes is a main concern in conservation genetics. Yet data from natural populations is scarce, particularly on invertebrates, owing to difficulties in measuring both fitness and inbreeding in the wild. Ants are social insects, and a prime example of an ecologically important group for which the effects of inbreeding remain largely unstudied. Social insects serve key roles in all terrestrial ecosystems, and the division of labor between the females in the colonies queens reproduce, workers tend to the developing brood probably is central to their ecological success. Sociality also has important implications for the effects of inbreeding. Despite their relative abundance, the effective population sizes of social insects tend to be small, owing to the low numbers of reproductive individuals relative to the numbers of sterile workers. This may subject social insects to loss of genetic diversity and subsequent inbreeding depression. Moreover, both the workers and queens can be inbred, with different and possibly multiplicative consequences. The aim of this study was to investigate causes and consequences of inbreeding in a natural population of ants. I used a combination of long-term field and genetic data from colonies of the narrow-headed ant Formica exsecta to examine dispersal, mating behavior and the occurrence of inbreeding, and its consequences on individual and colony traits. Mating in this species takes place in nuptial flights that have been assumed to be population-wide and panmictic. My results, however, show that dispersal is local, with queens establishing new colonies as close as 60 meters from their natal colony. Even though actual sib-mating was rare, individuals from different but related colonies pair, which causes the population to be inbred. Furthermore, multiple mates of queens were related to each other, which also indicates localized mating flights. Hence, known mechanisms of inbreeding avoidance, dispersal and multiple mating, were not effective in this population, as neither reduced inbreeding level of the future colony. Inbreeding had negative consequences both at the individual and colony level. A queen that has mated with a related male produces inbred workers, which impairs the colony s reproductive success. The inbred colonies were less productive and, specifically, produced fewer new queens, possibly owing to effects of inbreeding on the caste determination of female larvae. A striking finding was that males raised in colonies with inbred workers were smaller, which reflects an effect of the social environment as males, being haploid, cannot be inbred themselves. The queens produced in the inbred colonies, in contrast, were not smaller, but their immune response was up-regulated. Inbreeding had no effect on queen dispersal, but inbred queens had a lower probability of successfully founding a new colony. Ultimately, queens that survived through the colony founding phase had a shorter lifespan. This supports the idea that inbreeding imposes a genetic stress, leading to inbreeding depression on both the queen and the colony level. My results show that inbreeding can have profound consequences on insects in the wild, and that in social species the effects of inbreeding may be multiplicative and mediated through the diversity of the social environment, as well as the genetic makeup of the individuals themselves. This emphasizes the need to take into account all levels of organization when assessing the effects of genetic diversity in social animals.

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Most of the diseases affecting public health, like hypertension, are multifactorial by etiology. Hypertension is influenced by genetic, life style and environmental factors. Estimation of the influence of genes to the risk of essential hypertension varies from 30 to 50%. It is plausible that in most of the cases susceptibility to hypertension is determined by the action of more than one gene. Although the exact molecular mechanism underlying essential hypertension remains obscure, several monogenic forms of hypertension have been identified. Since common genetic variations may predict, not only to susceptibility to hypertension, but also response to antihypertensive drug therapy, pharmacogenetic approaches may provide useful markers in finding relations between candidate genes and phenotypes of hypertension. The aim of this study was to identify genetic mutations and polymorphisms contributing to human hypertension, and examine their relationships to intermediate phenotypes of hypertension, such as blood pressure (BP) responses to antihypertensive drugs or biochemical laboratory values. Two groups of patients were investigated in the present study. The first group was collected from the database of patients investigated in the Hypertension Outpatient Ward, Helsinki University Central Hospital, and consisted of 399 subjects considered to have essential hypertension. Frequncies of the mutant or variant alleles were compared with those in two reference groups, healthy blood donors (n = 301) and normotensive males (n = 175). The second group of subjects with hypertension was collected prospectively. The study subjects (n=313) underwent a protocol lasting eight months, including four one-month drug treatment periods with antihypertensive medications (thiazide diuretic, β-blocker, calcium channel antagonist, and an angiotensin II receptor antagonist). BP responses and laboratory values were related to polymorphims of several candidate genes of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS). In addition, two patients with typical features of Liddle’s syndrome were screened for mutations in kidney epithelial sodium channel (ENaC) subunits. Two novel mutations causing Liddle’s syndrome were identified. The first mutation identified located in the beta-subunit of ENaC and the second mutation found located in the gamma-subunit, constituting the first identified Liddle mutation locating in the extracellular domain. This mutation showed 2-fold increase in channel activity in vitro. Three gene variants, of which two are novel, were identified in ENaC subunits. The prevalence of the variants was three times higher in hypertensive patients (9%) than in reference groups (3%). The variant carriers had increased daily urinary potassium excretion rate in relation to their renin levels compared with controls suggesting increased ENaC activity, although in vitro they did not show increased channel activity. Of the common polymorphisms of the RAS studied, angiotensin II receptor type I (AGTR1) 1166 A/C polymorphism was associated with modest changes in RAS activity. Thus, patients homozygous for the C allele tended to have increased aldosterone and decreased renin levels. In vitro functional studies using transfected HEK293 cells provided additional evidence that the AGTR1 1166 C allele may be associated with increased expression of the AGTR1. Common polymorphisms of the alpha-adducin and the RAS genes did not significantly predict BP responses to one-month monotherapies with hydroclorothiazide, bisoprolol, amlodipin, or losartan. In conclusion, two novel mutations of ENaC subunits causing Liddle’s syndrome were identified. In addition, three common ENaC polymorphisms were shown to be associated with occurrence of essential hypertension, but their exact functional and clinical consequences remain to be explored. The AGTR1 1166 C allele may modify the endocrine phenotype of hypertensive patients, when present in homozygous form. Certain widely studied polymorphisms of the ACE, angiotensinogen, AGTR1 and alpha-adducin genes did not significantly affect responses to a thiazide, β-blocker, calcium channel antagonist, and angiotensin II receptor antagonist.