Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

Visual completion in an illusory figure

The visual systems of humans and animals represent physical reality in a modified way, depending on the specific demands that the species in question has for survival. The ability to perceive visual illusions is found in independently evolved visual systems, from honeybees to humans. In humans, the ability emerges early, at the age of four months. Thus the perception of illusion is likely to reflect visual processes of fundamental importance for object perception in natural vision. The experiments reported in this thesis employed various modifications of the Kanizsa triangle, a drawn configuration composed of three black disks with missing sectors on a white background. The sectors appear to form the tips of a triangle. The visual system completes the physically empty area between the disks, generally called inducers, with giving the perception of an illusory triangle. The illusory triangle consists of an illusory surface bounded by illusory contours; the triangle appears brighter than and to lie above the background. If the sectors are coloured, the colour fills the illusory area, a phenomenon known as neon colour spreading . We investigated spatial limitations on the perception of Kanizsa-type illusions and how other stimuli and viewing parameters affected these limitations. We also studied complex configurations thick, bent, mobile and chromatic inducers - to determine whether illusions combining several attributes can be perceived. The results suggest that the visual system is highly effective in completing a percept. The perception of an illusory figure is spatially scale invariant when perceived at threshold. The processing time and the number of fixations modify the percept, making the perception of the illusion more probable in various viewing conditions. Furthermore, the fact that the illusion can be perceived when only one inducer is physically present at any given moment indicates the potential of single inducers. Apparently, modelling illusory figure perception will require a combination of low-level, local processes and higher-level integrative processes. Our studies with stimuli combining several attributes relevant to object perception demonstrate that the perception of an illusory figure is flexible and is maintained also when it contains colour and volume and when shown in movement. All in all, the results confirm the assumed importance of the visual processes related with the perception of illusory figures in everyday viewing. This is indicated by the variety of inducer modifications that can be made without destroying the percept. Furthermore, the illusion can acquire additional attributes from such modifications. Due to individual differences in the perception of illusory figures, universal values for absolute performance are not always meaningful, but stable trends and general relations do exist.

Arresting occlusal enamel caries lesions with pit and fissure sealants

The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of pit and fissure sealants and the effectiveness of the two sealant methods applied in every-day practice in public dental health care in Finland. Two sealant methods were evaluated according to their effectiveness in preventing dentin caries and sealant retention. Application time with these sealant methods was compared. The survival rate of sealed first and second molars was followed for nine and 13 year periods, respectively. Caries risk evaluation and observed increased caries risk were the basis for considering sealant application. A questionnaire, sent to all public dental health centers in Finland, monitored the attitudes of the dental profession towards sealant application and explored the current policies used as well as changes noted in the sealant application protocol. DMFT (Decayed, Missing or Filled Teeth) index values collected from the health centers were evaluated. The difference in caries rate between two methods investigated was highly significant. When compared to the glass ionomer sealant method (GIC), the effectiveness of the resin-based method (RB) in preventing dentin caries was 74% and the rate difference 3%. The relative risk for RB-sealed surfaces vs. GIC-sealed surfaces of having detectable dentin caries was 0.3 (95% CI 0.12, 0.57). The retention rate of sealants was higher with RB than GIC (P<0.001). Application of RB sealant material was less time-consuming than application of GIC sealant. Occlusal dentin caries lesions were found in 4% and proximal caries in less than 2% of sealed teeth. The majority of respondents reported application of sealants on a systematic basis along with caries-risk evaluation. Those health centers sealing over suspected or detected enamel caries had lower average DMFT index values (1.0) when compared to DMFT values (1.2) of health centers applying sealants by alternative criteria. It is concluded that the RB sealant method is more effective than the GIC sealant method in preventing dentin caries. Sealant maintenance may increase the costs of a sealant program. Occlusal caries management may be improved if the applied sealant policies are changed towards an interceptive approach i.e. applying the sealants over detected or suspected enamel caries lesions instead of sealing sound teeth in a preventive manner.

Oral Health among Young Adults and the Middle-aged in Iran

The aim of the present study was to assess oral health and treatment needs among adult Iranians according to socio-demographic status, smoking, and oral hygiene, and to investigate the relationships between these determinants and oral health. Data for 4448 young adult (aged 18) and 8301 middle-aged (aged 35 to 44) Iranians were collected in 2002 as part of a national survey using the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for sampling and clinical diagnoses, across 28 provinces by 33 calibrated examiners. Gender, age, place of residence, and level of education served as socio-demographic information, smoking as behavioural and modified plaque index (PI) as the biological risk indicator for oral hygiene. Number of teeth, decayed teeth (DT), filled teeth (FT), decayed, missing, filled teeth (DMFT), community periodontal index (CPI), and prosthodontic rehabilitation served as outcome variables of oral health. Mean number of DMFT was 4.3 (Standard deviation (SD) = 3.7) in young adults and 11.0 (SD = 6.4) among middle-aged individuals. Among young adults the D-component (DT = 70%), and among middle-aged individuals the M-component (60%) dominated in the DMFT index. Among young adults, visible plaque was found in nearly all subjects. Maximum (max) PI was associated with higher mean number of DT, and higher periodontal treatment needs. A healthy periodontium was a rare condition, with 8% of young adults and 1% of middle-aged individuals having a max CPI = 0. The majority of the CPI findings among young adults consisted of calculus (48%) and deepened periodontal pockets (21%). Respective values for middle-aged individuals were 40% and 53%. Having a deep pocket (max CPI = 4) was more likely among young adults with a low level of education (Odds ratio (OR) = 2.7, 95% Confidence interval (CI) = 1.9–4.0) than it was among well-educated individuals. Among middle-aged individuals, having calculus or a periodontal pocket was more likely in men (OR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.6–2.0) and in illiterate subjects (OR = 6.3, 95% CI = 5.1–7.8) than it was for their counterparts. Among young adults, having 28 teeth was more (p < 0.05) prevalent among men (72% vs. 68% for women), urban residents (71% vs. 67% for rural residents), and those with a high level of education (73% vs. 60% for those with a low level). Among middle-aged individuals, having a functional dentition was associated with younger age (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.7−2.5) and higher level of education (OR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.6−2.1). Of middle-aged individuals, 2% of 35- to 39-year-olds and 5% of those aged 40 to 44 were edentulous. Among the dentate subjects (n = 7,925), prosthodontic rehabilitation was more prevalent (p < 0.001) among women, urban residents, and those with a high level of education than it was among their counterparts. Among those having 1 to 19 teeth, a removable denture was the most common type of prosthodontic rehabilitation. Middle-aged individuals lacking a functional dentition were more likely (OR = 6.0, 95% CI = 4.8−7.6) to have prosthodontic rehabilitation than were those having a functional dentition. In total, 81% of all reported being non-smokers, and 32% of men and 5% of women were current smokers. Heavy smokers were the most likely to have deepened periodontal pockets (max CPI ≥ 3, OR = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.8−4.7) and to have less than 20 teeth (OR = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.5−3.6). The findings indicate impaired oral health status in adult Iranians, particularly those of low socio-economic status and educational level. The high prevalence of dental plaque and calculus and considerable unmet treatment needs call for a preventive population strategy with special emphasis on the improvement of oral self-care and smoking cessation to tackle the underlying risk factors for oral diseases in the Iranian adult population.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

A Soul for Europe? : Contributions of European Churches to the Forum of the Convention on the Future of Europe

The aim of this research was to study how European churches contributed to the shaping of the Constitutional Treaty during the work of the Convention on the future of Europe through the public discussion forum, established by the Convention for this specific purpose in the years 2002 2003. In particular, this study sought to uncover the areas of interest brought up by the churches in their contributions, the objectives they pursued, and the approaches and arguments they employed to reach those objectives. The data for this study comprised all official submissions by European churches and church alliances to the Forum, totalling 21 contributions. A central criterion for inclusion of the data was that the organization can reasonably be assumed to represent the official position of one or more Christian churches within the European Union before the 2004 expansion. The contributing churches and organizations represent the vast majority of Christians in Europe. The data was analyzed using primarily qualitative content analysis. The research approach was a combination of abductive and inductive inference. Based on the analysis a two-fold theoretical framework was adopted, focusing on theories of public religion, secularization and deprivatization of religion, and of legitimation and collective identity. The main areas of interest found in the contributions of the churches were the value foundation of the European Union, which is demanded to coherently permeate all policies and actions of the EU, and the social dimension of Europe, which must be given equal status to the political and economic dimensions. In both areas the churches claim significant experience and expertise, which they want to see recognized in the Constituional Treaty through a formally guaranteed status for churches and religious communities in the EU. In their contributions the churches show a strong determination to secure a significant role for both religion and religious communities in the public life of Europe. As for the role of religion, they point out to its potential as a motivating and cohesive force in society and as a building block for a collective European identity, which is still missing. Churches also pursue a substantial public role for themselves beyond the spiritual dimension, permeating the secular areas of the social, political and economic dimensions. The arguments in suppport of such role are embedded in their interest and expertise in spiritual and other fundamental values and their broad involvement in providing social services. In this context churches use expressions inclusive of all religions and convictions, albeit clearly advocating the primacy of Europe's Christian heritage. Based on their historical role, their social involvement and their spiritual mission they use the public debate on the Constitutional Treaty to gain formal legitimacy for the public status of religion and religious communities, both nationally and on a European level, through appropriate provisions in the constitutional text. In return they offer the European Union ways of improving its own legitimacy by reducing the democratic and ideological deficit of the EU and advancing the development a collective European identity.

Missing-In-Metastasis (MIM) regulates cell morphology by promoting plasma membrane and actin cytoskeleton dynamics

The cells of multicellular organisms have differentiated to carry out specific functions that are often accompanied by distinct cell morphology. The actin cytoskeleton is one of the key regulators of cell shape subsequently controlling multiple cellular events including cell migration, cell division, endo- and exocytosis. A large set of actin regulating proteins has evolved to achieve and tightly coordinate this wide range of functions. Some actin regulator proteins have so-called house keeping roles and are essential for all eukaryotic cells, but some have evolved to meet the requirements of more specialized cell-types found in higher organisms enabling complex functions of differentiated organs, such as liver, kidney and brain. Often processes mediated by the actin cytoskeleton, like formation of cellular protrusions during cell migration, are intimately linked to plasma membrane remodeling. Thus, a close cooperation between these two cellular compartments is necessary, yet not much is known about the underlying molecular mechanisms. This study focused on a vertebrate-specific protein called missing-in-metastasis (MIM), which was originally characterized as a metastasis suppressor of bladder cancer. We demonstrated that MIM regulates the dynamics of actin cytoskeleton via its WH2 domain, and is expressed in a cell-type specific manner. Interestingly, further examination showed that the IM-domain of MIM displays a novel membrane tubulation activity, which induces formation of filopodia in cells. Following studies demonstrated that this membrane deformation activity is crucial for cell protrusions driven by MIM. In mammals, there are five members of IM-domain protein family. Functions and expression patterns of these family members have remained poorly characterized. To understand the physiological functions of MIM, we generated MIM knockout mice. MIM-deficient mice display no apparent developmental defects, but instead suffer from progressive renal disease and increased susceptibility to tumors. This indicates that MIM plays a role in the maintenance of specific physiological functions associated with distinct cell morphologies. Taken together, these studies implicate MIM both in the regulation of the actin cytoskeleton and the plasma membrane. Our results thus suggest that members of MIM/IRSp53 protein family coordinate the actin cytoskeleton:plasma membrane interface to control cell and tissue morphogenesis in multicellular organisms.

Basic Human Values in the Workplace

Työntekijöiden henkilökohtaisia arvoja ja niiden yhteyksiä asenteisiin ei ole juuri tutkittu. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, onko suomalaisessa metalliteollisuuden yrityksen henkilöstön (N=1314) arvojen rakenne S. H. Schwartzin arvoteorian mukainen. Lisäksi tutkittiin arvojen yhteyksiä organisaatiomuutosta koskeviin asenteisiin ja tiedon jakamiseen työyhteisössä. Arvomittarina käytettiin uutta 40-osioista Portrait Value Questionnairea (PVQ). Mittarin validiteetti osoitettiin ver-taamalla nyt kerätyn aineiston arvorakennetta aikaisemmalla mittarilla kerättyihin arvoteorian mukaisiin yliopisto-opiskelijoiden vastauksiin. Organisaatiomuutosta koskevien asenteiden ja tiedonjakamisen mittarit luotiin laadullisissa esitutkimuksissa. Tilastolliset analyysit osoittivat, että toimihenkilöiden ja työntekijöiden arvojen rakenteet noudattivat pääosin Schwartzin teoriaa, mutta turvallisuusarvot sijaitsivat molemmissa ryhmissä universalismin ja hyväntahtoisuuden joukossa. Universalismi ja hyväntahtoisuus ennustivat myönteistä asennetta organisaatiomuutoksia kohtaan, mutta perinteiden ja mielihyvän arvostaminen liittyivät kielteisiin muutosasenteisiin. Sosiaalisia normeja kunnioittavien eli yhdenmukaisuutta arvostavien henkilöiden muut arvot vaikuttivat muutosasenteisiin vähemmän kuin niillä, joille yhdenmukaisuus ei ollut tärkeää. Lisäksi suoriutumisarvon yhteys muutosasenteisiin oli yhdenmukaisuutta arvostavilla henkilöillä positiivinen, mutta niillä, jotka eivät arvostaneet yhdenmukaisuutta, yhteys oli negatiivinen. Itseohjautuvuutta arvostavat henkilöt pitivät työyhteisönsä tiedon jakamista heikompana, kun taas hyväntahtoisuutta ja yhdenmukaisuutta arvostavat pitivät sitä muihin nähden parempana. Suoriutumisarvo oli yhteydessä tiedonjakamiseen vain silloin, kun yhdenmukaisuus oli tärkeää. Työpaikkojen (N=19) keskiarvoja vertailtaessa havaittiin, että ne työpaikat, joissa arvostettiin paljon universalismia, hyväntahtoisuutta ja yhdenmukaisuutta sekä vähän valtaa ja suoriutumista saivat henkilöstöltään parhaat arvioinnit tiedon jakamisesta. Tutkimukseen osallistuneet henkilöt jaettiin työtehtäviensä perusteella kolmeen ammatilliseen ympäristöön: konven-tionaaliseen (mm. taloushallinto), realistiseen (mm. tuotanto) ja yrittäjämäiseen (mm. myynti). Yrittäjämäisessä ammatillisessa ympäristössä toimivat arvostivat enemmän kuin konventionaalisessa ympäristössä toimivat valtaa, itseohjautuvuutta ja suoriutumista. Realistisessa ympäristössä arvostettiin enemmän perinteitä ja mielihyvää kuin yrittäjämäisessä ympäristössä. Ryhmien väliset erot arvoissa johtuivat koulutuksesta, iästä ja sukupuolijakaumasta.

The sources of moral motivation : studies on empathy, guilt, shame and values

The goals of this study were to analyze the forms of emotional tendencies that are likely to motivate moral behaviors, and to find correlates for these tendencies. In study 1, students narratives of their own guilt or shame experiences were analyzed. The results showed that pure shame was more likely to motivate avoidance than reparation, whereas guilt and combination of guilt and shame were likely to motivate reparation. However, all types of emotion could lead to chronic rumination if the person was not clearly responsible for the situation. In study 2, the relations of empathy with two measures of guilt were examined in a sample of 13- to 16-year-olds (N=113). Empathy was measured using Davis s IRI and guilt by Tangney s TOSCA and Hoffman s semi-projective story completion method that includes two different scenarios, guilt over cheating and guilt over inaction. Empathy correlated more strongly with both measures of guilt than the two measures correlated with each other. Hoffman s guilt over inaction was more strongly associated with empathy measures in girls than in boys, whereas for guilt over cheating the pattern was the opposite. Girls and boys who describe themselves as empathetic may emphasize different aspect of morality and feel guilty in different contexts. In study 3, cultural and gender differences in guilt and shame (TOSCA) and value priorities (the Schwartz Value Survey) were studied in samples of Finnish (N=156) and Peruvian (N=159) adolescents. Gender differences were found to be larger and more stereotypical among the Finns than among the Peruvians. Finnish girls were more prone to guilt and shame than boys were, whereas among the Peruvians there was no gender difference in guilt, and boys were more shame-prone than girls. The results support the view that psychological gender differences are largest individualistic societies. In study 4, the relations of value priorities to guilt, shame and empathy were examined in two samples, one of 15 19-year-old high school students (N = 207), and the other of military conscripts (N = 503). Guilt was, in both samples, positively related to valuing universalism, benevolence, tradition, and conformity, and negatively related to valuing power, hedonism, stimulation, and self-direction. The results for empathy were similar, but the relation to the openness conservation value dimension was weaker. Shame and personal distress were weakly related to values. In sum, shame without guilt and the TOSCA shame scale are tendencies that are unlikely to motivate moral behavior in Finnish cultural context. Guilt is likely to be connected to positive social behaviors, but excessive guilt can cause psychological problems. Moral emotional tendencies are related to culture, cultural conceptions of gender and to individual value priorities.

Search for single top quark production in pp̅ collisions at √s=1.96 TeV in the missing transverse energy plus jets topology

We report a search for single top quark production with the CDF II detector using 2.1 fb-1 of integrated luminosity of pbar p collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV. The data selected consist of events characterized by large energy imbalance in the transverse plane and hadronic jets, and no identified electrons and muons, so the sample is enriched in W -> tau nu decays. In order to suppress backgrounds, additional kinematic and topological requirements are imposed through a neural network, and at least one of the jets must be identified as a b-quark jet. We measure an excess of signal-like events in agreement with the standard model prediction, but inconsistent with a model without single top quark production by 2.1 standard deviations (sigma), with a median expected sensitivity of 1.4 sigma. Assuming a top quark mass of 175 GeV/c2 and ascribing the excess to single top quark production, the cross section is measured to be 4.9+2.5-2.2(stat+syst)pb, consistent with measurements performed in independent datasets and with the standard model prediction.

Search for Supersymmetry with Gauge-Mediated Breaking in Diphoton Events with Missing Transverse Energy at CDF II

We present the results of a search for supersymmetry with gauge-mediated breaking and $\NONE\to\gamma\Gravitino$ in the $\gamma\gamma$+missing transverse energy final state. In 2.6$\pm$0.2 \invfb of $p{\bar p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$$=$1.96 TeV recorded by the CDF II detector we observe no candidate events, consistent with a standard model background expectation of 1.4$\pm$0.4 events. We set limits on the cross section at the 95% C.L. and place the world's best limit of 149\gevc on the \none mass at $\tau_{\tilde{\chi}_1^0}$$

Search for WW and WZ Resonances Decaying to Electron, Missing ET, and Two Jets in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV.

Using data from 2.9  fb-1 of integrated luminosity collected with the CDF II detector at the Tevatron, we search for resonances decaying into a pair of on-shell gauge bosons, WW or WZ, where one W decays into an electron and a neutrino, and the other boson decays into two jets. We observed no statistically significant excess above the expected standard model background, and we set cross section limits at 95% confidence level on G* (Randall-Sundrum graviton), Z′, and W′ bosons. By comparing these limits to theoretical cross sections, mass exclusion regions for the three particles are derived. The mass exclusion regions for Z′ and W′ are further evaluated as a function of their gauge coupling strength.

Search for WW and WZ Resonances Decaying to Electron, Missing ET, and Two Jets in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV.

Using data from 2.9/fb of integrated luminosity collected with the CDF II detector at the Tevatron, we search for resonances decaying into a pair of on-shell gauge bosons, WW or WZ, where one W decays into an electron and a neutrino, and the other boson decays into two jets. We observed no statistically significant excess above the expected standard model background, and we set cross section limits at 95% confidence level on G*(Randall-Sundrum graviton), Z', and W' bosons. By comparing these limits to theoretical cross sections, mass exclusion regions for the three particles are derived. The mass exclusion regions for Z' and W' are further evaluated as a function of their gauge coupling strength.

Search for the Higgs Boson Using Neural Networks in Events with Missing Energy and b-Quark Jets in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

We report on a search for the standard model Higgs boson produced in association with a $W$ or $Z$ boson in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 1.96$ TeV recorded by the CDF II experiment at the Tevatron in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.1 fb$^{-1}$. We consider events which have no identified charged leptons, an imbalance in transverse momentum, and two or three jets where at least one jet is consistent with originating from the decay of a $b$ hadron. We find good agreement between data and predictions. We place 95% confidence level upper limits on the production cross section for several Higgs boson masses ranging from 110$\gevm$ to 150$\gevm$. For a mass of 115$\gevm$ the observed (expected) limit is 6.9 (5.6) times the standard model prediction.