Perceptions of climate change, environmental variability and the role of agricultural adaptation strategies by small-scale farmers in Africa: the case of Mwanga district in Northern Tanzania

Abstract The potential impacts of climate change and environmental variability are already evident in most parts of the world, which is witnessing increasing temperature rates and prolonged flood or drought conditions that affect agriculture activities and nature-dependent livelihoods. This study was conducted in Mwanga District in the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania to assess the nature and impacts of climate change and environmental variability on agriculture-dependent livelihoods and the adaptation strategies adopted by small-scale rural farmers. To attain its objective, the study employed a mixed methods approach in which both qualitative and quantitative techniques were used. The study shows that farmers are highly aware of their local environment and are conscious of the ways environmental changes affect their livelihoods. Farmers perceived that changes in climatic variables such as rainfall and temperature had occurred in their area over the period of three decades, and associated these changes with climate change and environmental variability. Farmers’ perceptions were confirmed by the evidence from rainfall and temperature data obtained from local and national weather stations, which showed that temperature and rainfall in the study area had become more variable over the past three decades. Farmers’ knowledge and perceptions of climate change vary depending on the location, age and gender of the respondents. The findings show that the farmers have limited understanding of the causes of climatic conditions and environmental variability, as some respondents associated climate change and environmental variability with social, cultural and religious factors. This study suggests that, despite the changing climatic conditions and environmental variability, farmers have developed and implemented a number of agriculture adaptation strategies that enable them to reduce their vulnerability to the changing conditions. The findings show that agriculture adaptation strategies employ both planned and autonomous adaptation strategies. However, the study shows that increasing drought conditions, rainfall variability, declining soil fertility and use of cheap farming technology are among the challenges that limit effective implementation of agriculture adaptation strategies. This study recommends further research on the varieties of drought-resilient crops, the development of small-scale irrigation schemes to reduce dependence on rain-fed agriculture, and the improvement of crop production in a given plot of land. In respect of the development of adaptation strategies, the study recommends the involvement of the local farmers and consideration of their knowledge and experience in the farming activities as well as the conditions of their local environment. Thus, the findings of this study may be helpful at various levels of decision making with regard to the development of climate change and environmental variability policies and strategies towards reducing farmers’ vulnerability to current and expected future changes.

Developing an index of dietary estimation of fermentable carbohydrate to allow dietary analysis for epidemiological studies

It has been proposed that long-term consumption of diets rich in non-digestible carbohydrates (NDCs), such as cereals, fruit and vegetables might protect against several chronic diseases, however, it has been difficult to fully establish their impact on health in epidemiology studies. The wide range properties of the different NDCs may dilution their impact when they are combined in one category for statistical comparisons in correlations or multivariate analysis. Several mechanisms have been suggested to explain the protective effects of NDCs, including increased stool bulk, dilution of carcinogens in the colonic lumen, reduced transit time, lowering pH, and bacterial fermentation to short chain fatty acids (SCFA) in the colon. However, it is very difficult to measure SCFA in humans in vivo with any accuracy, so epidemiological studies on the impact of SCFA are not feasible. Most studies use dietary fibre (DF) or Non-Starch Polysaccharides (NSP) intake to estimate the levels, but not all fibres or NSP are equally fermentable. It has been proposed that long-term consumption of diets rich in non-digestible carbohydrates (NDCs), such as cereals, fruit and vegetables might protect against several chronic diseases, however, it has been difficult to fully establish their impact on health in epidemiology studies. The wide range properties of the different NDCs may dilution their impact when they are combined in one category for statistical comparisons in correlations or multivariate analysis. Several mechanisms have been suggested to explain the protective effects of NDCs, including increased stool bulk, dilution of carcinogens in the colonic lumen, reduced transit time, lowering pH, and bacterial fermentation to short chain fatty acids (SCFA) in the colon. However, it is very difficult to measure SCFA in humans in vivo with any accuracy, so epidemiological studies on the impact of SCFA are not feasible. Most studies use dietary fibre (DF) or Non-Starch Polysaccharides (NSP) intake to estimate the levels, but not all fibres or NSP are equally fermentable. The first aim of this thesis was the development of the equations used to estimate the amount of FC that reaches the human colon and is fermented fully to SCFA by the colonic bacteria. Therefore, several studies were examined for evidence to determine the different percentages of each type of NDCs that should be included in the final model, based on how much NDCs entered the colon intact and also to what extent they were fermented to SCFA in vivo. Our model equations are FC-DF or NSP$ 1: 100 % Soluble + 10 % insoluble + 100 % NDOs¥ + 5 % TS** FC-DF or NSP 2: 100 % Soluble + 50 % insoluble + 100 % NDOs + 5 % TS FC-DF* or NSP 3: 100 % Soluble + 10 % insoluble + 100 % NDOs + 10 % TS FC-DF or NSP 4: 100 % Soluble + 50 % insoluble + 100 % NDOs + 10 % TS *DF: Dietary fibre; **TS: Total starch; $NSP: non-starch polysaccharide; ¥NDOs: non-digestible oligosaccharide The second study of this thesis aimed to examine all four predicted FC-DF and FC-NSP equations developed, to estimate FC from dietary records against urinary colonic NDCs fermentation biomarkers. The main finding of a cross-sectional comparison of habitual diet with urinary excretion of SCFA products, showed weak but significant correlation between the 24 h urinary excretion of SCFA and acetate with the estimated FC-DF 4 and FC-NSP 4 when considering all of the study participants (n = 122). Similar correlations were observed with the data for valid participants (n = 78). It was also observed that FC-DF and FC-NSP had positive correlations with 24 h urinary acetate and SCFA compared with DF and NSP alone. Hence, it could be hypothesised that using the developed index to estimate FC in the diet form dietary records, might predict SCFA production in the colon in vivo in humans. The next study in this thesis aimed to validate the FC equations developed using in vitro models of small intestinal digestion and human colon fermentation. The main findings in these in vitro studies were that there were several strong agreements between the amounts of SCFA produced after actual in vitro fermentation of single fibre and different mixtures of NDCs, and those predicted by the estimated FC from our developed equation FC-DF 4. These results which demonstrated a strong relationship between SCFA production in vitro from a range of fermentations of single fibres and mixtures of NDCs and that from the predicted FC equation, support the use of the FC equation for estimation of FC from dietary records. Therefore, we can conclude that the newly developed predicted equations have been deemed a valid and practical tool to assess SCFA productions for in vitro fermentation.