Essays on firm behaviour in the euro area

This thesis examines firms' real decisions using a large panel of unquoted euro area firms over the period 2003-2011. To this end, this thesis is composed of five chapters in which three are the main empirical chapters. They assess the dimensions of firm behaviour across different specifications. Each of these chapters provide a detailed discussion on the contribution, theoretical and empirical background as well as the panel data techniques which are implemented. Chapter 1 describes the introduction and outline of the thesis. Chapter 2 presents an empirical analysis on the link between financial pressure and firms' employment level. In this set-up, it is explored the strength of financial pressure during the financial crisis. It is also tested whether this effect has a different impact for financially constrained and unconstrained firms in the periphery and non-periphery regions. The results of this chapter denote that financial pressure exerts a negative impact on firms' employment decisions and that this effect is stronger during the crisis for financially constrained firms in the periphery. Chapter 3 analyses the cash policies of private and public firms. Controlling for firm size and other standard variables in the literature of cash holdings, empirical findings suggest that private firms hold higher cash reserves than their public counterparts indicating a greater precautionary demand for cash by the former. The relative difference between these two type of firms decreases (increases) the higher (lower) is the the level of financial pressure. The findings are robust to various model specifications and over different sub-samples. Overall, this chapter shows the relevance of firms' size. Taken together, the findings of Chapter 3 are in line with the early literature on cash holdings and contradict the recent studies, which find that the precautionary motive to hold cash is less pronounced for private firms than for public ones. Chapter 4 undertakes an investigation on the relation between firms' stocks of inventories and trade credit (i.e. extended and taken) whilst controlling for the firms' size, the characteristics of the goods transacted, the recent financial crisis and the development of the banking system. The main findings provide evidence of a trade-off between trade credit extended and firms' stock of inventories. In other words, firms' prefer to extend credit in the form of stocks to their financially constrained customers to avoid holdings costly inventories and to increase their sales levels. The provision of trade credit by the firms also depends on the characteristics of the goods transacted. This impact is stronger during the crisis. Larger and liquid banking systems reduce the trade-off between the volume of stocks of inventories and the amount sold on credit. Trade credit taken is not affected by firms' stock of inventories. Chapter 5 presents the conclusions of the thesis. It provides the main contributions, implications and future research of each empirical chapter.

Essays in corporate finance

China has been growing rapidly over the last decades. The private sector is the driving force of this growth. This thesis focuses on firm-level investment and cash holdings in China, and the chapters are structured around the following issues. 1. Why do private firms grow so fast when they are more financially constrained? In Chapter 3, we use a panel of over 600,000 firms of different ownership types from 1998 to 2007 to find the link between investment opportunities and financial constraints. The main finding indicates that private firms, which are more likely to be financially constrained, have high investment-investment opportunity sensitivity. Furthermore, this sensitivity is relatively lower for state-owned firms in China. This shows that constrained firms value investment opportunities more than unconstrained firms. To better measure investment opportunities, we attempt to improve the Q model by considering supply and demand sides simultaneously. When we capture q from the supply side and the demand side, we find that various types of firms respond differently towards different opportunity shocks. 2. In China, there are many firms whose cash flow is far greater than their fixed capital investment. Why is their investment still sensitive to cash flow? To explain this, in Chapter 4, we attempt to introduce a new channel to find how cash flow affects firm-level investment. We use a dynamic structural model and take uncertainty and ambiguity aversion into consideration. We find that uncertainty and ambiguity aversion will make investment less sensitive to investment opportunities. However, investment-cash flow sensitivity will increase when uncertainty is high. This suggests that investment cash flow sensitivities could still be high even when the firms are not financially constrained. 3. Why do firms in China hold so much cash? How can managers’ confidence affect corporate cash holdings? In Chapter 5, we analyse corporate cash holdings in China. Firms hold cash for precautionary reasons, to hedge frictions such as financing constraints and uncertainty. In addition, firms may act differently if they are confident or not. In order to determine how confidence shocks affect precautionary savings, we develop a dynamic model taking financing constraints, uncertainty, adjustment costs and confidence shocks into consideration. We find that without confidence shocks, firms will save money in bad times and invest in good times to maximise their value. However, if managers lose their confidence, they tend to save money in good times to use in bad times, to hedge risks and financing constraint problems. This can help explain why people find different results on the cash flow sensitivity of cash. Empirically, we use a panel of Chinese listed firms. The results show that firms in China save more money in good times, and the confidence shock channel can significantly affect firms’ cash holdings policy.

A study on the effect of functional distribution of income on aggregate demand

In this thesis, we study the causal relationship between functional distribution of income and economic growth. In particular, we focus on some of the aspects that might alter the effect of the profit share on growth. After a brief introduction and literature review, the empirical contributions will be presented in Chapters 3,4 and 5. Chapter 3 analyses the effect of a contemporaneous decrease in the wage share among countries that are major trade partners. Falling wage share and wage moderation are a global phenomenon which are hardly opposed by governments. This is because lower wages are associated with lower export prices and, therefore, have a positive effect on net-exports. There is, however, a fallacy of composition problem: not all countries can improve their balance of payments contemporaneously. Studying the country members of the North America Free Trade Agreement, we find that the effect on export of a contemporaneous decrease in the wage share in Mexico, Canada and the United States, is negative in all countries. In other words, the competitive advantage that each country gains because of a reduction in its wage share (to which is associated a decrease in export prices), is offset by a contemporaneous increase in competitiveness in the other two countries. Moreover, we find that NAFTA is overall wage-led: the profit share has a negative effect on aggregate demand. Chapter 4 tests whether it is possible that the effect of the profit share on growth is different in the long run and in the short run. Following Blecker (2014) our hypothesis is that in the short run the growth regime is less wage-led than it is in the long run. The results of our empirical investigation support this hypothesis, at least for the United States over the period 1950-2014. The effect of wages on consumption increases more than proportionally compared to the effect of profits on consumption from the short to the long run. Moreover, consumer debt seem to have only a short-run effect on consumption indicating that in the long run, when debt has to be repaid, consumption depends more on the level of income and on how it is distributed. Regarding investment, the effect of capacity utilization is always larger than the effect of the profit share and that the difference between the two effects is higher in the long run than in the short run. This confirms the hypothesis that in the long run, unless there is an increase in demand, it is likely that firms are not going to increase investments even in the presence of high profits. In addition, the rentier share of profits – that comprises dividends and interest payments – has a long-run negative effect on investment. In the long run rentiers divert firms’ profits from investment and, therefore, it weakens the effect of profits on investment. Finally, Chapter 5 studies the possibility of structural breaks in the relationship between functional distribution of income and growth. We argue that, from the 1980s, financialization and the European exchange rate agreements weakened the positive effect of the profit share on growth in Italy. The growth regime is therefore becoming less profit-led and more wage-led. Our results confirm this hypothesis and also shed light on the concept of cooperative and conflictual regimes as defined by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990).