“Enjoy your baby” Internet-based CBT for mothers with babies: a feasibility randomised control trial

Background: Postnatal depression is a global health problem with lasting effects on the family. Government policy is focussed on early intervention and increasing access to psychological therapies. There is a growing evidence base for the use of computerised CBT packages and this study investigated the feasibility of a CBT-based self-help internet intervention for new mothers. Objective: To assess the ability to recruit mothers, deliver an internet course, obtain follow-up data and evaluate what mothers think of the course. Design: A feasibility randomised control design was used to compare a waiting list control group (delayed access= DA) to the Enjoy Your Baby course (immediate access= IA). Measures were administered at baseline and 8 week follow-up. Methods: Adverts were placed in the Metro freesheet, on charity web pages, on social media, posters were put up in the community, and leaflets were handed out at mother and baby groups. Participants had to be 18 years old or over with a child less than 18 months old. The IA arm was given access to the course straight away. After 8 weeks all participants were asked to recomplete the original measures and those in the IA arm also gave feedback on the course. Participants in the DA arm were given access after recompleting the questionnaires. Due to a lack of follow-up data a small discussion group was conducted. Intervention: The course contains 4 core modules including helping mothers understand why they feel the way they do and helping them build closeness to their babies. Additional modules, worksheets and homework tasks were available. The DA group were given a list of additional support resources and services, and encouraged to seek additional help if required. All participants received weekly automated emails for 12 weeks as they worked through the course. It was not possible to deliver individualised support. 34 Results: Despite using a number of recruitment strategies, recruitment was lower and slower than anticipated, and attrition was high. 41 women, primarily recruited via the internet, were randomised (IA n=21, DA n=20). No significant differences were observed between participants in either arm at baseline and no statistically significant differences were identified when the demographics and baseline measures of participants who logged-on to the course were compared to those who did not, or when participants who completed follow-up measures were compared to those who did not. Pre and post intervention scores on the EPDS approached statistical significance (P=.059, r=.444) favouring the intervention arm. The discussion group suggested strengths of the course and recommended areas for improvement, including making the course more mobile friendly. Conclusion: Internet interventions show promise; however it is difficult to recruit mothers, engagement is low and attrition high. A number of recommendations are made and a further pilot or an internal pilot of a larger substantive study should be conducted to confirm recruitment and retention. Trial ID: ISRCTN90927910.

Autonomous formation flying: unified control and collision avoidance methods for close manoeuvring spacecraft

The idea of spacecraft formations, flying in tight configurations with maximum baselines of a few hundred meters in low-Earth orbits, has generated widespread interest over the last several years. Nevertheless, controlling the movement of spacecraft in formation poses difficulties, such as in-orbit high-computing demand and collision avoidance capabilities, which escalate as the number of units in the formation is increased and complicated nonlinear effects are imposed to the dynamics, together with uncertainty which may arise from the lack of knowledge of system parameters. These requirements have led to the need of reliable linear and nonlinear controllers in terms of relative and absolute dynamics. The objective of this thesis is, therefore, to introduce new control methods to allow spacecraft in formation, with circular/elliptical reference orbits, to efficiently execute safe autonomous manoeuvres. These controllers distinguish from the bulk of literature in that they merge guidance laws never applied before to spacecraft formation flying and collision avoidance capacities into a single control strategy. For this purpose, three control schemes are presented: linear optimal regulation, linear optimal estimation and adaptive nonlinear control. In general terms, the proposed control approaches command the dynamical performance of one or several followers with respect to a leader to asymptotically track a time-varying nominal trajectory (TVNT), while the threat of collision between the followers is reduced by repelling accelerations obtained from the collision avoidance scheme during the periods of closest proximity. Linear optimal regulation is achieved through a Riccati-based tracking controller. Within this control strategy, the controller provides guidance and tracking toward a desired TVNT, optimizing fuel consumption by Riccati procedure using a non-infinite cost function defined in terms of the desired TVNT, while repelling accelerations generated from the CAS will ensure evasive actions between the elements of the formation. The relative dynamics model, suitable for circular and eccentric low-Earth reference orbits, is based on the Tschauner and Hempel equations, and includes a control input and a nonlinear term corresponding to the CAS repelling accelerations. Linear optimal estimation is built on the forward-in-time separation principle. This controller encompasses two stages: regulation and estimation. The first stage requires the design of a full state feedback controller using the state vector reconstructed by means of the estimator. The second stage requires the design of an additional dynamical system, the estimator, to obtain the states which cannot be measured in order to approximately reconstruct the full state vector. Then, the separation principle states that an observer built for a known input can also be used to estimate the state of the system and to generate the control input. This allows the design of the observer and the feedback independently, by exploiting the advantages of linear quadratic regulator theory, in order to estimate the states of a dynamical system with model and sensor uncertainty. The relative dynamics is described with the linear system used in the previous controller, with a control input and nonlinearities entering via the repelling accelerations from the CAS during collision avoidance events. Moreover, sensor uncertainty is added to the control process by considering carrier-phase differential GPS (CDGPS) velocity measurement error. An adaptive control law capable of delivering superior closed-loop performance when compared to the certainty-equivalence (CE) adaptive controllers is finally presented. A novel noncertainty-equivalence controller based on the Immersion and Invariance paradigm for close-manoeuvring spacecraft formation flying in both circular and elliptical low-Earth reference orbits is introduced. The proposed control scheme achieves stabilization by immersing the plant dynamics into a target dynamical system (or manifold) that captures the desired dynamical behaviour. They key feature of this methodology is the addition of a new term to the classical certainty-equivalence control approach that, in conjunction with the parameter update law, is designed to achieve adaptive stabilization. This parameter has the ultimate task of shaping the manifold into which the adaptive system is immersed. The performance of the controller is proven stable via a Lyapunov-based analysis and Barbalat’s lemma. In order to evaluate the design of the controllers, test cases based on the physical and orbital features of the Prototype Research Instruments and Space Mission Technology Advancement (PRISMA) are implemented, extending the number of elements in the formation into scenarios with reconfigurations and on-orbit position switching in elliptical low-Earth reference orbits. An extensive analysis and comparison of the performance of the controllers in terms of total Δv and fuel consumption, with and without the effects of the CAS, is presented. These results show that the three proposed controllers allow the followers to asymptotically track the desired nominal trajectory and, additionally, those simulations including CAS show an effective decrease of collision risk during the performance of the manoeuvre.

Essays on robust mechanism design

Chapter 1: Under the average common value function, we select almost uniquely the mechanism that gives the seller the largest portion of the true value in the worst situation among all the direct mechanisms that are feasible, ex-post implementable and individually rational. Chapter 2: Strategy-proof, budget balanced, anonymous, envy-free linear mechanisms assign p identical objects to n agents. The efficiency loss is the largest ratio of surplus loss to efficient surplus, over all profiles of non-negative valuations. The smallest efficiency loss is uniquely achieved by the following simple allocation rule: assigns one object to each of the p−1 agents with the highest valuation, a large probability to the agent with the pth highest valuation, and the remaining probability to the agent with the (p+1)th highest valuation. When “envy freeness” is replaced by the weaker condition “voluntary participation”, the optimal mechanism differs only when p is much less than n. Chapter 3: One group is to be selected among a set of agents. Agents have preferences over the size of the group if they are selected; and preferences over size as well as the “stand-outside” option are single-peaked. We take a mechanism design approach and search for group selection mechanisms that are efficient, strategy-proof and individually rational. Two classes of such mechanisms are presented. The proposing mechanism allows agents to either maintain or shrink the group size following a fixed priority, and is characterized by group strategy-proofness. The voting mechanism enlarges the group size in each voting round, and achieves at least half of the maximum group size compatible with individual rationality.

Optimal static and sequential design : a critical review

The aim of this thesis is to review and augment the theory and methods of optimal experimental design. In Chapter I the scene is set by considering the possible aims of an experimenter prior to an experiment, the statistical methods one might use to achieve those aims and how experimental design might aid this procedure. It is indicated that, given a criterion for design, a priori optimal design will only be possible in certain instances and, otherwise, some form of sequential procedure would seem to be indicated. In Chapter 2 an exact experimental design problem is formulated mathematically and is compared with its continuous analogue. Motivation is provided for the solution of this continuous problem, and the remainder of the chapter concerns this problem. A necessary and sufficient condition for optimality of a design measure is given. Problems which might arise in testing this condition are discussed, in particular with respect to possible non-differentiability of the criterion function at the design being tested. Several examples are given of optimal designs which may be found analytically and which illustrate the points discussed earlier in the chapter. In Chapter 3 numerical methods of solution of the continuous optimal design problem are reviewed. A new algorithm is presented with illustrations of how it should be used in practice. It is shown that, for reasonably large sample size, continuously optimal designs may be approximated to well by an exact design. In situations where this is not satisfactory algorithms for improvement of this design are reviewed. Chapter 4 consists of a discussion of sequentially designed experiments, with regard to both the philosophies underlying, and the application of the methods of, statistical inference. In Chapter 5 we criticise constructively previous suggestions for fully sequential design procedures. Alternative suggestions are made along with conjectures as to how these might improve performance. Chapter 6 presents a simulation study, the aim of which is to investigate the conjectures of Chapter 5. The results of this study provide empirical support for these conjectures. In Chapter 7 examples are analysed. These suggest aids to sequential experimentation by means of reduction of the dimension of the design space and the possibility of experimenting semi-sequentially. Further examples are considered which stress the importance of the use of prior information in situations of this type. Finally we consider the design of experiments when semi-sequential experimentation is mandatory because of the necessity of taking batches of observations at the same time. In Chapter 8 we look at some of the assumptions which have been made and indicate what may go wrong where these assumptions no longer hold.