Trajectory prediction uncertainty modelling for Air Traffic Management

The anticipated growth of air traffic worldwide requires enhanced Air Traffic Management (ATM) technologies and procedures to increase the system capacity, efficiency, and resilience, while reducing environmental impact and maintaining operational safety. To deal with these challenges, new automation and information exchange capabilities are being developed through different modernisation initiatives toward a new global operational concept called Trajectory Based Operations (TBO), in which aircraft trajectory information becomes the cornerstone of advanced ATM applications. This transformation will lead to higher levels of system complexity requiring enhanced Decision Support Tools (DST) to aid humans in the decision making processes. These will rely on accurate predicted aircraft trajectories, provided by advanced Trajectory Predictors (TP). The trajectory prediction process is subject to stochastic effects that introduce uncertainty into the predictions. Regardless of the assumptions that define the aircraft motion model underpinning the TP, deviations between predicted and actual trajectories are unavoidable. This thesis proposes an innovative method to characterise the uncertainty associated with a trajectory prediction based on the mathematical theory of Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE). Assuming univariate PCEs of the trajectory prediction inputs, the method describes how to generate multivariate PCEs of the prediction outputs that quantify their associated uncertainty. Arbitrary PCE (aPCE) was chosen because it allows a higher degree of flexibility to model input uncertainty. The obtained polynomial description can be used in subsequent prediction sensitivity analyses thanks to the relationship between polynomial coefficients and Sobol indices. The Sobol indices enable ranking the input parameters according to their influence on trajectory prediction uncertainty. The applicability of the aPCE-based uncertainty quantification detailed herein is analysed through a study case. This study case represents a typical aircraft trajectory prediction problem in ATM, in which uncertain parameters regarding aircraft performance, aircraft intent description, weather forecast, and initial conditions are considered simultaneously. Numerical results are compared to those obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating the advantages of the proposed method. The thesis includes two examples of DSTs (Demand and Capacity Balancing tool, and Arrival Manager) to illustrate the potential benefits of exploiting the proposed uncertainty quantification method.

The analysis and detection of new psychoactive substances in biological matrices

New psychoactive substances (NPSs) have appeared on the recreational drug market at an unprecedented rate in recent years. Many are not new drugs but failed products of the pharmaceutical industry. The speed and variety of drugs entering the market poses a new complex challenge for the forensic toxicology community. The detection of these substances in biological matrices can be difficult as the exact compounds of interest may not be known. Many NPS are sold under the same brand name and therefore users themselves may not know what substances they have ingested. The majority of analytical methods for the detection of NPSs tend to focus on a specific class of compounds rather than a wide variety. In response to this, a robust and sensitive method was developed for the analysis of various NPS by solid phase extraction (SPE) with gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS). Sample preparation and derivatisation were optimised testing a range of SPE cartridges and derivatising agents, as well as derivatisation incubation time and temperature. The final gas chromatography mass spectrometry method was validated in accordance with SWGTOX 2013 guidelines over a wide concentration range for both blood and urine for 23 and 25 analytes respectively. This included the validation of 8 NBOMe compounds in blood and 10 NBOMe compounds in urine. This GC-MS method was then applied to 8 authentic samples with concentrations compared to those originally identified by NMS laboratories. The rapid influx of NPSs has resulted in the re-analysis of samples and thus, the stability of these substances is crucial information. The stability of mephedrone was investigated, examining the effect that storage temperatures and preservatives had on analyte stability daily for 1 week and then weekly for 10 weeks. Several laboratories identified NPSs use through the cross-reactivity of these substances with existing screening protocols such as ELISA. The application of Immunalysis ketamine, methamphetamine and amphetamine ELISA kits for the detection of NPS was evaluated. The aim of this work was to determine if any cross-reactivity from NPS substances was observed, and to determine whether these existing kits would identify NPS use within biological samples. The cross- reactivity of methoxetamine, 3-MeO-PCE and 3-MeO-PCP for different commercially point of care test (POCT) was also assessed for urine. One of the newest groups of compounds to appear on the NPS market is the NBOMe series. These drugs pose a serious threat to public health due to their high potency, with fatalities already reported in the literature. These compounds are falsely marketed as LSD which increases the chance of adverse effects due to the potency differences between these 2 substances. A liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method was validated in accordance with SWGTOX 2013 guidelines for the detection for 25B, 25C and 25I-NBOMe in urine and hair. Long-Evans rats were administered 25B-, 25C- and 25I-NBOMe at doses ranging from 30-300 µg/kg over a period of 10 days. Tail flick tests were then carried out on the rats in order to determine whether any analgesic effects were observed as a result of dosing. Rats were also shaved prior to their first dose and reshaved after the 10-day period. Hair was separated by colour (black and white) and analysed using the validated LC-MS/MS method, assessing the impact hair colour has on the incorporation of these drugs. Urine was collected from the rats, analysed using the validated LC-MS/MS method and screened for potential metabolites using both LC-MS/MS and quadrupole time of flight (QToF) instrumentation.

Every nation under heaven: the importance of the biblical concept of nations for contemporary mission practice

Is there a concept of nationhood in the Bible that can provide us with a framework for cross-cultural Christian mission? This thesis argues that current evangelical missiology has accepted too willingly the categories of the secular Enlightenment understanding of ethnicity and nationhood, and that it needs to rethink its understanding of nations from a biblical standpoint. While the pressures of globalisation are seen by some as rapidly eclipsing the nation-state, this thesis will argue that we need to move beyond the narrower secular categories of citizenship, political power and the boundaries of the state to recover a more biblical understanding of nationhood. By reference to Genesis 10-11, Acts 2:1-11 and those passages in the Book of Revelation that discuss the destiny of the nations, it will show that the biblical understanding of nations includes deeper ideas of shared history, culture and language as the essential components of nationhood. It will explain how nations are part of the created order, and explore the impact of the Babel narrative on our understanding of nations in relation to God. It will demonstrate that Pentecost did not reverse the curse of Babel, but served rather to honour the dignity and value of nations and their languages. It will also argue that nations have a destiny in the New Creation according to the Book of Revelation. This biblical concept of nationhood has significant implications in several areas: the development of a public theology; a Christian response to nationalism; the question of how urban mission fits within mission to the nations; and the importance of indigenous languages in cross-cultural mission, especially in the multicultural cities of Europe.