Perceptions of climate change, environmental variability and the role of agricultural adaptation strategies by small-scale farmers in Africa: the case of Mwanga district in Northern Tanzania

Abstract The potential impacts of climate change and environmental variability are already evident in most parts of the world, which is witnessing increasing temperature rates and prolonged flood or drought conditions that affect agriculture activities and nature-dependent livelihoods. This study was conducted in Mwanga District in the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania to assess the nature and impacts of climate change and environmental variability on agriculture-dependent livelihoods and the adaptation strategies adopted by small-scale rural farmers. To attain its objective, the study employed a mixed methods approach in which both qualitative and quantitative techniques were used. The study shows that farmers are highly aware of their local environment and are conscious of the ways environmental changes affect their livelihoods. Farmers perceived that changes in climatic variables such as rainfall and temperature had occurred in their area over the period of three decades, and associated these changes with climate change and environmental variability. Farmers’ perceptions were confirmed by the evidence from rainfall and temperature data obtained from local and national weather stations, which showed that temperature and rainfall in the study area had become more variable over the past three decades. Farmers’ knowledge and perceptions of climate change vary depending on the location, age and gender of the respondents. The findings show that the farmers have limited understanding of the causes of climatic conditions and environmental variability, as some respondents associated climate change and environmental variability with social, cultural and religious factors. This study suggests that, despite the changing climatic conditions and environmental variability, farmers have developed and implemented a number of agriculture adaptation strategies that enable them to reduce their vulnerability to the changing conditions. The findings show that agriculture adaptation strategies employ both planned and autonomous adaptation strategies. However, the study shows that increasing drought conditions, rainfall variability, declining soil fertility and use of cheap farming technology are among the challenges that limit effective implementation of agriculture adaptation strategies. This study recommends further research on the varieties of drought-resilient crops, the development of small-scale irrigation schemes to reduce dependence on rain-fed agriculture, and the improvement of crop production in a given plot of land. In respect of the development of adaptation strategies, the study recommends the involvement of the local farmers and consideration of their knowledge and experience in the farming activities as well as the conditions of their local environment. Thus, the findings of this study may be helpful at various levels of decision making with regard to the development of climate change and environmental variability policies and strategies towards reducing farmers’ vulnerability to current and expected future changes.

Small strain elastic behaviour of unsaturated soil investigated by bender/extender element testing

The aim of this project was to investigate very small strain elastic behaviour of soils under unsaturated conditions, using bender/extender element (BEE) testing. The behaviour of soils at very small strains has been widely studied under saturated conditions, whereas much less work has been performed on very small strain behaviour under unsaturated conditions. A suction-controlled double wall triaxial apparatus for unsaturated soil testing was modified to incorporate three pairs of BEEs transmitting both shear and compression waves with vertical and horizontal directions of wave transmission and wave polarisation. Various different techniques for measuring wave travel time were investigated in both the time domain and the frequency domain and it was concluded that, at least for the current experimental testing programme, peak-to-first-peak in the time domain was the most reliable technique for determining wave travel time. An experimental test programme was performed on samples of compacted speswhite kaolin clay. Two different forms of compaction were employed (i.e. isotropic and anisotropic). Compacted kaolin soil samples were subjected to constant suction loading and unloading stages at three different values of suction, covering both unsaturated conditions (s= 50kPa and s= 300kPa) and saturated conditions (s=0). Loading and unloading stages were performed at three different values of stress ratio (η=0, η=1 and η=-1 ). In some tests a wetting-drying cycle was performed before or within the loading stage, with the wetting-drying cycles including both wetting-induced swelling and wetting-induced collapse compression. BEE tests were performed at regular intervals throughout all test stages, to measure shear wave velocity Vs and compression wave velocity Vp and hence to determine values of shear modulus G and constrained modulus M. The experimental test programme was designed to investigate how very small strain shear modulus G and constrained modulus M varied with unsaturated state variables, including how anisotropy of these parameters developed either with stress state (stress-induced anisotropy) or with previous straining (strain-induced anisotropy). A new expression has been proposed for the very small strain shear modulus G of an isotropic soil under saturated and unsaturated conditions. This expression relates the variation of G to only mean Bishop’s stress p* and specific volume v, and it converges to a well-established expression for saturated soils as degree of saturation approaches 1. The proposed expression for G is able to predict the variation of G under saturated and unsaturated conditions at least as well as existing expressions from the literature and it is considerably simpler (employing fewer state variables and fewer soil constants). In addition, unlike existing expressions from the literature, the values of soil constants in the proposed new expression can be determined from a saturated test. It appeared that, in the current project at least, any strain-induced anisotropy of very small strain elastic behaviour was relatively modest, with the possible exception of loading in triaxial extension. It was therefore difficult to draw any firm conclusion about evolution of strain-induced anisotropy and whether it depended upon the same aspects of soil fabric as evolution of anisotropy of large strain plastic behaviour. Stress-induced anisotropy of very small strain elastic behaviour was apparent in the experimental test programme. An attempt was made to extend the proposed expression for G to include the effect of stress-induced anisotropy. Interpretation of the experimental results indicated that the value of shear modulus was affected by the values of all three principal Bishop’s stresses (in the direction of wave transmission, the direction of wave polarisation and the third mutually perpendicular direction). However, prediction of stress-induced anisotropy was only partially successful, and it was concluded that the effect of Lode angle was also significant.