Methods matter: computational modelling in public health policy and planning

This work is aimed at understanding and unifying information on epidemiological modelling methods and how those methods relate to public policy addressing human health, specifically in the context of infectious disease prevention, pandemic planning, and health behaviour change. This thesis employs multiple qualitative and quantitative methods, and presents as a manuscript of several individual, data-driven projects that are combined in a narrative arc. The first chapter introduces the scope and complexity of this interdisciplinary undertaking, describing several topical intersections of importance. The second chapter begins the presentation of original data, and describes in detail two exercises in computational epidemiological modelling pertinent to pandemic influenza planning and policy, and progresses in the next chapter to present additional original data on how the confidence of the public in modelling methodology may have an effect on their planned health behaviour change as recommended in public health policy. The thesis narrative continues in the final data-driven chapter to describe how health policymakers use modelling methods and scientific evidence to inform and construct health policies for the prevention of infectious diseases, and concludes with a narrative chapter that evaluates the breadth of this data and recommends strategies for the optimal use of modelling methodologies when informing public health policy in applied public health scenarios.

Volunteering for the Commonwealth Games: what can realist synthesis contribute to health policy making?

The aim of this thesis was to investigate, using the real-time test case of the 2014 Commonwealth Games, whether the realist synthesis methodology could contribute to the making of health policy in a meaningful way. This was done by looking at two distinct research questions: first, whether realist synthesis could contribute new insights to the health policymaking process, and second, whether the 2014 Commonwealth Games volunteer programme was likely to have any significant, measurable, impact on health inequalities experienced by large sections of the host population. The 2014 Commonwealth Games legacy laid out ambitious plans for the event, in which it was anticipated that it would provide explicit opportunities to impact positively on health inequalities. By using realist synthesis to unpick the theories underpinning the volunteer programme, the review identifies the population subgroups for whom the programme was likely to be successful, how this could be achieved and in what contexts. In answer to the first research question, the review found that while realist methods were able to provide a more nuanced exposition of the impacts of the Games volunteer programme on health inequalities than previous traditional reviews had been able to provide, there were several drawbacks to using the method. It was found to be resource-intensive and complex, encouraging the exploration of a much wider set of literatures at the expense of an in-depth grasp of the complexities of those literatures. In answer to the second research question, the review found that the Games were, if anything, likely to exacerbate health inequalities because the programme was designed in such a way that individuals recruited to it were most likely to be those in least need of the additional mental and physical health benefits that Games volunteering was designed to provide. The following thesis details the approach taken to investigate both the realist approach to evidence synthesis and the likelihood that the 2014 Games volunteer programme would yield the expected results.

Tackling health inequalities in primary care: an exploration of GPs’ experience at the frontline

In Scotland, life expectancy and health outcomes are strongly tied to socioeconomic status. Specifically, socioeconomically deprived areas suffer disproportionately from high levels of premature multimorbidity and mortality. To tackle these inequalities in health, challenges in the most deprived areas must be addressed. One avenue that merits attention is the potential role of general medical practitioners (GPs) in helping to address health inequalities, particularly due to their long-term presence in deprived communities, their role in improving patient and population health, and their potential advocacy role on behalf of their patients. GPs can be seen as what Lipsky calls ‘street-level bureaucrats’ due to their considerable autonomy in the decisions they make surrounding individual patient needs, yet practising under the bureaucratic structure of the NHS. While previous research has examined the applicability of Lipsky’s framework to the role of GPs, there has been very little research exploring how GPs negotiate between the multiple identities in their work, how GPs ‘socially construct’ their patients, how GPs view their potential role as ‘advocate’, and what this means in terms of the contribution of GPs to addressing existing inequalities in health. Using semi-structured interviews, this study explored the experience and views of 24 GPs working in some of Scotland’s most deprived practices to understand how they might combat this growing health divide via the mitigation (and potential prevention) of existing health inequalities. Participants were selected based on several criteria including practice deprivation level and their individual involvement in the Deep End project, which is an informal network comprising the 100 most deprived general practices in Scotland. The research focused on understanding GPs’ perceptions of their work including its broader implications, within their practice, the communities within which they practise, and the health system as a whole. The concept of street-level bureaucracy proved to be useful in understanding GPs’ frontline work and how they negotiate dilemmas. However, this research demonstrated the need to look beyond Lipsky’s framework in order to understand how GPs reconcile their multiple identities, including advocate and manager. As a result, the term ‘street-level professional’ is offered to capture more fully the multiple identities which GPs inhabit and to explain how GPs’ elite status positions them to engage in political and policy advocacy. This study also provides evidence that GPs’ social constructions of patients are linked not only to how GPs conceptualise the causes of health inequalities, but also to how they view their role in tackling them. In line with this, the interviews established that many GPs felt they could make a difference through advocacy efforts at individual, community and policy/political levels. Furthermore, the study draws attention to the importance of practitioner-led groups—such as the Deep End project—in supporting GPs’ efforts and providing a platform for their advocacy. Within this study, a range of GPs’ views have been explored based on the sample. While it is unclear how common these views are amongst GPs in general, the study revealed that there is considerable scope for ‘political GPs’ who choose to exercise discretion in their communities and beyond. Consequently, GPs working in deprived areas should be encouraged to use their professional status and political clout not only to strengthen local communities, but also to advocate for policy change that might potentially affect the degree of disadvantage of their patients, and levels of social and health inequalities more generally.