3 resultados para fate and effect modelling
em Glasgow Theses Service
Resumo:
Topography is often thought as exclusively linked to mountain ranges formed by plates collision. It is now, however, known that apart from compression, uplift and denudation of rocks may be triggered by rifting, like it happens at elevated passive margins, and away from plate boundaries by both intra-plate stress causing reactivation of older structures, and by epeirogenic movements driven by mantle dynamics and initiating long-wavelength uplift. In the Cenozoic, central west Britain and other parts of the North Atlantic margins experienced multiple episodes of rock uplift and denudation that have been variable both at spatial and temporal scales. The origin of topography in central west Britain is enigmatic, and because of its location, it may be related to any of the processes mentioned above. In this study, three low temperature thermochronometers, the apatite fission track (AFT) and apatite and zircon (U-Th-Sm)/He (AHe and ZHe, respectively) methods were used to establish the rock cooling history from 200◦C to 30◦C. The samples were collected from the intrusive rocks in the high elevation, high relief regions of the Lake District (NW England), southern Scotland and northern Wales. AFT ages from the region are youngest (55–70 Ma) in the Lake District and increase northwards into southern Scotland and southwards in north Wales (>200 Ma). AHe and ZHe ages show no systematic pattern; the former range from 50 to 80 Ma and the latter tend to record the post-emplacement cooling of the intrusions (200–400 Ma). The complex, multi-thermochronometric inverse modelling suggests a ubiquitous, rapid Late Cretaceous/early Palaeogene cooling event that is particularly marked in Lake District and Criffell. The timing and rate of cooling in southern Scotland and in northern Wales is poorly resolved as the amount of cooling was less than 60◦C. The Lake District plutons were at >110◦C prior to the early Palaeogene; cooling due to a combined effect of high heat flow, from the heat producing granite batholith, and the blanketing effect of the overlying low conductivity Late Mesozoic limestones and mudstones. Modelling of the heat transfer suggests that this combination produced an elevated geothermal gradient within the sedimentary rocks (50–70◦C/km) that was about two times higher than at the present day. Inverse modelling of the AFT and AHe data taking the crustal structure into consideration suggests that denudation was the highest, 2.0–2.5 km, in the coastal areas of the Lake District and southern Scotland, gradually decreasing to less than 1 km in the northern Southern Uplands and northern Wales. Both the rift-related uplift and the intra-plate compression poorly correlate with the timing, location and spatial distribution of the early Palaeogene denudation. The pattern of early Palaeogene denudation correlates with the thickness of magmatic underplating, if the changes of mean topography, Late Cretaceous water depth and eroded rock density are taken into consideration. However, the uplift due to underplating alone cannot fully justify the total early Palaeogene denudation. The amount that is not ex- plained by underplating is, however, roughly spatially constant across the study area and can be referred to the transient thermal uplift induced by the mantle plume arrival. No other mechanisms are required to explain the observed pattern of denudation. The onset of denudation across the region is not uniform. Denudation started at 70–75 Ma in the central part of the Lake District whereas the coastal areas the rapid erosion appears to have initiated later (65–60 Ma). This is ~10 Ma earlier than the first vol- canic manifestation of the proto-Iceland plume and favours the hypothesis of the short period of plume incubation below the lithosphere before the volcanism. In most of the localities, the rocks had cooled to temperatures lower than 30◦C by the end of the Palaeogene, suggesting that the total Neogene denudation was, at a maximum, several hundreds of metres. Rapid cooling in the last 3 million years is resolved in some places in southern Scotland, where it could be explained by glacial erosion and post-glacial isostatic uplift.
Resumo:
The problem: Around 300 million people worldwide have asthma and prevalence is increasing. Support for optimal self-management can be effective in improving a range of outcomes and is cost effective, but is underutilised as a treatment strategy. Supporting optimum self-management using digital technology shows promise, but how best to do this is not clear. Aim: The purpose of this project was to explore the potential role of a digital intervention in promoting optimum self-management in adults with asthma. Methods: Following the MRC Guidance on the Development and Evaluation of Complex Interventions which advocates using theory, evidence, user testing and appropriate modelling and piloting, this project had 3 phases. Phase 1: Examination of the literature to inform phases 2 and 3, using systematic review methods and focussed literature searching. Phase 2: Developing the Living Well with Asthma website. A prototype (paper-based) version of the website was developed iteratively with input from a multidisciplinary expert panel, empirical evidence from the literature (from phase 1), and potential end users via focus groups (adults with asthma and practice nurses). Implementation and behaviour change theories informed this process. The paper-based designs were converted to the website through an iterative user centred process (think aloud studies with adults with asthma). Participants considered contents, layout, and navigation. Development was agile using feedback from the think aloud sessions immediately to inform design and subsequent think aloud sessions. Phase 3: A pilot randomised controlled trial over 12 weeks to evaluate the feasibility of a Phase 3 trial of Living Well with Asthma to support self-management. Primary outcomes were 1) recruitment & retention; 2) website use; 3) Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) score change from baseline; 4) Mini Asthma Quality of Life (AQLQ) score change from baseline. Secondary outcomes were patient activation, adherence, lung function, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), generic quality of life measure (EQ-5D), medication use, prescribing and health services contacts. Results: Phase1: Demonstrated that while digital interventions show promise, with some evidence of effectiveness in certain outcomes, participants were poorly characterised, telling us little about the reach of these interventions. The interventions themselves were poorly described making drawing definitive conclusions about what worked and what did not impossible. Phase 2: The literature indicated that important aspects to cover in any self-management intervention (digital or not) included: asthma action plans, regular health professional review, trigger avoidance, psychological functioning, self-monitoring, inhaler technique, and goal setting. The website asked users to aim to be symptom free. Key behaviours targeted to achieve this include: optimising medication use (including inhaler technique); attending primary care asthma reviews; using asthma action plans; increasing physical activity levels; and stopping smoking. The website had 11 sections, plus email reminders, which promoted these behaviours. Feedback during think aloud studies was mainly positive with most changes focussing on clarification of language, order of pages and usability issues mainly relating to navigation difficulties. Phase 3: To achieve our recruitment target 5383 potential participants were invited, leading to 51 participants randomised (25 to intervention group). Age range 16-78 years; 75% female; 28% from most deprived quintile. Nineteen (76%) of the intervention group used the website for an average of 23 minutes. Non-significant improvements in favour of the intervention group observed in the ACQ score (-0.36; 95% confidence interval: -0.96, 0.23; p=0.225), and mini-AQLQ scores (0.38; -0.13, 0.89; p=0.136). A significant improvement was observed in the activity limitation domain of the mini-AQLQ (0.60; 0.05 to 1.15; p = 0.034). Secondary outcomes showed increased patient activation and reduced reliance on reliever medication. There was no significant difference in the remaining secondary outcomes. There were no adverse events. Conclusion: Living Well with Asthma has been shown to be acceptable to potential end users, and has potential for effectiveness. This intervention merits further development, and subsequent evaluation in a Phase III full scale RCT.
Resumo:
The thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of the characterisation of two of the major figures in the Aeneid, Aeneas and Turnus. Particular attention is paid to their direct speeches, all of which are examined and, where relevant, compared to Homeric models and parallels. To this purpose considerable use is made of the indices in Knauer's Die Aeneis und Homer. A more general comparison is made between the dramatic (direct speech) role of Aeneas and those of Homer's Achilles (Iliad) and Odysseus (Odyssey). An appraisal is made (from the viewpoint of depiction of character) of the relationship between the direct and indirect speeches in the Aeneid. Reasons are given to suggest that it is not mere chance, or for the sake of variety, that certain speeches of Aeneas and Turnus are expressed in oratio obliqua. In addition, the narrative portrayal of Aeneas and Turnus is considered in apposition to that of the speeches. A distinction is drawn between Vergil's direct method of characterisation (direct speeches) and his indirect methods (narrative/oratio obliqua). Inevitably, the analysis involves major consideration of the Roman values which pervade the work. All speeches, thoughts and actions of Aeneas and Turnus are assessed in terms of pietas, impietas, furor, virtus, ratio, clementia, humanitas (etc.). It is shown that individual concepts (such as pietas and impietas) are reflected in Vergil's direct and indirect methods of characterisation. The workings of fate and their relevance to the pietas concept are discussed throughout.