'Expanding Horizons': investigating the Glasgow 2014 legacy for young people in the East End of Glasgow

The recent staging of Glasgow 2014 drew universal praise as the ‘Best Games Ever’. Yet the substantial undertaking of hosting the Commonwealth Games (CWG) was sold to the nation as more than just eleven days of sporting spectacle and cultural entertainment. Indeed, the primary strategic justification offered by policymakers and city leaders was the delivery of a bundle of positive and enduring benefits, so-called ‘legacy’. This ubiquitous and amorphous concept has evolved over time to become the central focus of contemporary hosting bids, reflecting a general public policy shift towards using major sporting mega events as a catalyst to generate benefits across economic, environmental and social dimensions, on a scale intended to be truly transformative. At the same time, the academy has drawn attention to the absence of evidence in support of the prevailing legacy rhetoric and raised a number of sociological concerns, not least the socially unequitable distribution of purported benefits. This study investigated how young people living in the core hosting zone related to, and were impacted upon, by the CWG and its associated developments and activities with reference to their socio-spatial horizons, the primary outcome of interest. An ‘ideal world’ Logic Model hypothesised that four mechanisms, identified from official legacy documents and social theories, would alter young people’s subjective readings of the world by virtue of broadening their social networks, extending their spatial boundaries and altering their mind sets. A qualitative methodology facilitated the gathering of situated and contextualised accounts of young people’s attitudes, perceptions, beliefs and behaviours relating to Glasgow 2014. In-depth interviews and focus groups were conducted before and after the Games with 26 young people, aged 14-16 years, at two schools in the East End. This approach was instrumental in privileging the interests of people ‘on the ground’ over those of city-wide and national stakeholders. The findings showed that young people perceived the dominant legacy benefit to be an improved reputation and image for Glasgow and the East End. Primary beneficiaries were identified by them as those with vested business interests e.g. retailers, restaurateurs, and hoteliers, as well as national and local government, with low expectations of personal dividends or ‘trickle down’ benefits. Support for Glasgow 2014 did not necessarily translate into individual engagement with the various cultural and sporting activities leading up to the CWG, including the event itself. The study found that young people who engaged most were those who had the ability to ‘read’ the opportunities available to them and who had the social, cultural and economic capital necessary to grasp them, with the corollary that those who might have gained most were the least likely to have engaged with the CWG. Doubts articulated by research participants about the social sustainability of Glasgow 2014 underscored inherent tensions between the short-lived thrill of the spectacle and the anticipated longevity of its impacts. The headline message is that hosting sporting mega events might not be an effective means of delivering social change. Aspirant host cities should consider more socially equitable alternatives to sporting mega events prior to bidding; and future host cities should endeavour to engage more purposefully with more young people over longer time frames.

Essays in asset price bubbles

This thesis studies the field of asset price bubbles. It is comprised of three independent chapters. Each of these chapters either directly or indirectly analyse the existence or implications of asset price bubbles. The type of bubbles assumed in each of these chapters is consistent with rational expectations. Thus, the kind of price bubbles investigated here are known as rational bubbles in the literature. The following describes the three chapters. Chapter 1: This chapter attempts to explain the recent US housing price bubble by developing a heterogeneous agent endowment economy asset pricing model with risky housing, endogenous collateral and defaults. Investment in housing is subject to an idiosyncratic risk and some mortgages are defaulted in equilibrium. We analytically derive the leverage or the endogenous loan to value ratio. This variable comes from a limited participation constraint in a one period mortgage contract with monitoring costs. Our results show that low values of housing investment risk produces a credit easing effect encouraging excess leverage and generates credit driven rational price bubbles in the housing good. Conversely, high values of housing investment risk produces a credit crunch characterized by tight borrowing constraints, low leverage and low house prices. Furthermore, the leverage ratio was found to be procyclical and the rate of defaults countercyclical consistent with empirical evidence. Chapter 2: It is widely believed that financial assets have considerable persistence and are susceptible to bubbles. However, identification of this persistence and potential bubbles is not straightforward. This chapter tests for price bubbles in the United States housing market accounting for long memory and structural breaks. The intuition is that the presence of long memory negates price bubbles while the presence of breaks could artificially induce bubble behaviour. Hence, we use procedures namely semi-parametric Whittle and parametric ARFIMA procedures that are consistent for a variety of residual biases to estimate the value of the long memory parameter, d, of the log rent-price ratio. We find that the semi-parametric estimation procedures robust to non-normality and heteroskedasticity errors found far more bubble regions than parametric ones. A structural break was identified in the mean and trend of all the series which when accounted for removed bubble behaviour in a number of regions. Importantly, the United States housing market showed evidence for rational bubbles at both the aggregate and regional levels. In the third and final chapter, we attempt to answer the following question: To what extend should individuals participate in the stock market and hold risky assets over their lifecycle? We answer this question by employing a lifecycle consumption-portfolio choice model with housing, labour income and time varying predictable returns where the agents are constrained in the level of their borrowing. We first analytically characterize and then numerically solve for the optimal asset allocation on the risky asset comparing the return predictability case with that of IID returns. We successfully resolve the puzzles and find equity holding and participation rates close to the data. We also find that return predictability substantially alter both the level of risky portfolio allocation and the rate of stock market participation. High factor (dividend-price ratio) realization and high persistence of factor process indicative of stock market bubbles raise the amount of wealth invested in risky assets and the level of stock market participation, respectively. Conversely, rare disasters were found to bring down these rates, the change being severe for investors in the later years of the life-cycle. Furthermore, investors following time varying returns (return predictability) hedged background risks significantly better than the IID ones.