Econometric models in foreign exchange market

According to the significance of the econometric models in foreign exchange market, the purpose of this research is to give a closer examination on some important issues in this area. The research covers exchange rate pass-through into import prices, liquidity risk and expected returns in the currency market, and the common risk factors in currency markets. Firstly, with the significant of the exchange rate pass-through in financial economics, the first empirical chapter studies on the degree of exchange rate pass-through into import in emerging economies and developed countries in panel evidences for comparison covering the time period of 1970-2009. The pooled mean group estimation (PMGE) is used for the estimation to investigate the short run coefficients and error variance. In general, the results present that the import prices are affected positively, though incompletely, by the exchange rate. Secondly, the following study addresses the question whether there is a relationship between cross-sectional differences in foreign exchange returns and the sensitivities of the returns to fluctuations in liquidity, known as liquidity beta, by using a unique dataset of weekly order flow. Finally, the last study is in keeping with the study of Lustig, Roussanov and Verdelhan (2011), which shows that the large co-movement among exchange rates of different currencies can explain a risk-based view of exchange rate determination. The exploration on identifying a slope factor in exchange rate changes is brought up. The study initially constructs monthly portfolios of currencies, which are sorted on the basis of their forward discounts. The lowest interest rate currencies are contained in the first portfolio and the highest interest rate currencies are in the last. The results performs that portfolios with higher forward discounts incline to contain higher real interest rates in overall by considering the first portfolio and the last portfolio though the fluctuation occurs.

Essays on cultural and institutional dynamics in economic development using spatial analysis

This thesis seeks to research patterns of economic growth and development from a number of perspectives often resonated in the growth literature. By addressing themes about history, geography, institutions and culture the thesis is able to bring to bear a wide range of inter-related literatures and methodologies within a single content. Additionally, by targeting different administrative levels in its research design and approach, this thesis is also able to provide a comprehensive treatment of the economic growth dilemma from both cross-national and sub-national perspectives. The three chapters herein discuss economic development from two broad dimensions. The first of these chapters takes on the economic growth inquiry by attempting to incorporate cultural geography within a cross-country formal spatial econometric growth framework. By introducing the global cultural dynamics of languages and ethnic groups as spatial network mechanisms, this chapter is able to distinguish economic growth effects accruing from own-country productive efforts from those accruing from interconnections within a global productive network chain. From this, discussions and deductions about the implications for both developed and developing countries are made as regards potentials for gains and losses from such types and levels of productive integration. The second and third chapters take a different spin to the economic development inquiry. They both focus on economic activity in Africa, tackling the relevant issues from a geo-intersected dimension involving historic regional tribal homelands and modern national and subnational administrative territories. The second chapter specifically focuses on attempting to adopt historical channels to investigate the connection between national institutional quality and economic development in demarcated tribal homelands at the fringes of national African borders. The third chapter on the other hand focuses on looking closer at the effects of demarcations on economic activity. It particularly probes how different kinds of demarcation warranted by two different but very relevant classes of politico-economic players have affected economic activity quite distinguishably within the resulting subnational regions in Africa.