A national coastal erosion risk assessment for Scotland

The geography of Scotland, with a highly undulating hinterland, long and indented coastline, together with a large number of islands, means that much social and economic activity is largely located at the coast. The importance of the coast is further highlighted by the large number of ecosystem services derived from the coast. The threat posed by climate change, particularly current and future sea level rise, is of considerable concern and the associated coastal erosion and coastal flooding has the potential to have a substantial effect on the socioeconomic activity of the whole country. Currently, the knowledge base of coastal erosion is poor, which serves to hinder the current and future management of the coast. This research reported here aimed to establish four key aspects of coastal erosion within Scotland: the physical susceptibility of the coast to erosion; the assets exposed to coastal erosion; the vulnerability of communities to coastal erosion; and the coastal erosion risk to those communities. Coastal erosion susceptibility was modelled here within a GIS, using data for ground elevation, rockhead elevation, wave exposure and proximity to the open coast. Combining these data produced the Underlying Physical Susceptibility Model (UPSM), in the form of a 50 m2 raster of national coverage. The Coastal Erosion Susceptibility Model (CESM) was produced with the addition of sediment supply and coastal defence data, which then moderates the outputs of the UPSM. Asset data for dwellings, key assets, transport infrastructure, historic assets, and natural assets were used along with the UPSM and CESM to assess their degree of exposure to coastal erosion. A Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Model (CEVM) was produced using Experian Mosaic Scotland (a geodemographic classification which identifies 44 different social groups within Scotland) to classify populations based upon 11 vulnerability variables. Dwellings were assigned a CESM and CEVM score in order to establish their coastal erosion risk. This research demonstrated that the issue of coastal erosion will impact on a relatively low number of properties compared to those impacted by flooding (both coastal and fluvial) as many dwellings are already protected by coastal defences. There is therefore, a considerable future liability, and great pressure for coastal defences to be maintained and upgraded in their current form. The use of the CEVM is a novel inclusion within a coastal erosion assessment for Scotland. Use of the CEVM established that coastal erosion risk is not distributed equally amongst the Scottish coastal population and highlighted that risk can be reduced by either reducing exposure or reducing vulnerability. Thus far in Scotland, reducing exposure has been the primary management approach, which has a number of implications with regards social justice. This research identified the existing data gaps that should be addressed by future research in order to further improve coastal management in Scotland. Future research should focus on assessing historical coastal change rates on a national scale, improve modelling of national scale wave exposure, enhance the information held about current coastal defences and, determine the direct and indirect economic cost associated with the loss of different asset types. It is also necessary to clarify the social justice implications of using adaptation approaches to manage coastal erosion as well as establishing a method to communicate the susceptibility, exposure, vulnerability and risk aspects whilst minimising the potential negative impacts (e.g. property blight) of releasing such information.

Quantifying uplift and denudation of a thermally heterogeneous crust: a detailed multi-thermochronometeric study of central west Britain

Topography is often thought as exclusively linked to mountain ranges formed by plates collision. It is now, however, known that apart from compression, uplift and denudation of rocks may be triggered by rifting, like it happens at elevated passive margins, and away from plate boundaries by both intra-plate stress causing reactivation of older structures, and by epeirogenic movements driven by mantle dynamics and initiating long-wavelength uplift. In the Cenozoic, central west Britain and other parts of the North Atlantic margins experienced multiple episodes of rock uplift and denudation that have been variable both at spatial and temporal scales. The origin of topography in central west Britain is enigmatic, and because of its location, it may be related to any of the processes mentioned above. In this study, three low temperature thermochronometers, the apatite fission track (AFT) and apatite and zircon (U-Th-Sm)/He (AHe and ZHe, respectively) methods were used to establish the rock cooling history from 200◦C to 30◦C. The samples were collected from the intrusive rocks in the high elevation, high relief regions of the Lake District (NW England), southern Scotland and northern Wales. AFT ages from the region are youngest (55–70 Ma) in the Lake District and increase northwards into southern Scotland and southwards in north Wales (>200 Ma). AHe and ZHe ages show no systematic pattern; the former range from 50 to 80 Ma and the latter tend to record the post-emplacement cooling of the intrusions (200–400 Ma). The complex, multi-thermochronometric inverse modelling suggests a ubiquitous, rapid Late Cretaceous/early Palaeogene cooling event that is particularly marked in Lake District and Criffell. The timing and rate of cooling in southern Scotland and in northern Wales is poorly resolved as the amount of cooling was less than 60◦C. The Lake District plutons were at >110◦C prior to the early Palaeogene; cooling due to a combined effect of high heat flow, from the heat producing granite batholith, and the blanketing effect of the overlying low conductivity Late Mesozoic limestones and mudstones. Modelling of the heat transfer suggests that this combination produced an elevated geothermal gradient within the sedimentary rocks (50–70◦C/km) that was about two times higher than at the present day. Inverse modelling of the AFT and AHe data taking the crustal structure into consideration suggests that denudation was the highest, 2.0–2.5 km, in the coastal areas of the Lake District and southern Scotland, gradually decreasing to less than 1 km in the northern Southern Uplands and northern Wales. Both the rift-related uplift and the intra-plate compression poorly correlate with the timing, location and spatial distribution of the early Palaeogene denudation. The pattern of early Palaeogene denudation correlates with the thickness of magmatic underplating, if the changes of mean topography, Late Cretaceous water depth and eroded rock density are taken into consideration. However, the uplift due to underplating alone cannot fully justify the total early Palaeogene denudation. The amount that is not ex- plained by underplating is, however, roughly spatially constant across the study area and can be referred to the transient thermal uplift induced by the mantle plume arrival. No other mechanisms are required to explain the observed pattern of denudation. The onset of denudation across the region is not uniform. Denudation started at 70–75 Ma in the central part of the Lake District whereas the coastal areas the rapid erosion appears to have initiated later (65–60 Ma). This is ~10 Ma earlier than the first vol- canic manifestation of the proto-Iceland plume and favours the hypothesis of the short period of plume incubation below the lithosphere before the volcanism. In most of the localities, the rocks had cooled to temperatures lower than 30◦C by the end of the Palaeogene, suggesting that the total Neogene denudation was, at a maximum, several hundreds of metres. Rapid cooling in the last 3 million years is resolved in some places in southern Scotland, where it could be explained by glacial erosion and post-glacial isostatic uplift.