'Expanding Horizons': investigating the Glasgow 2014 legacy for young people in the East End of Glasgow

The recent staging of Glasgow 2014 drew universal praise as the ‘Best Games Ever’. Yet the substantial undertaking of hosting the Commonwealth Games (CWG) was sold to the nation as more than just eleven days of sporting spectacle and cultural entertainment. Indeed, the primary strategic justification offered by policymakers and city leaders was the delivery of a bundle of positive and enduring benefits, so-called ‘legacy’. This ubiquitous and amorphous concept has evolved over time to become the central focus of contemporary hosting bids, reflecting a general public policy shift towards using major sporting mega events as a catalyst to generate benefits across economic, environmental and social dimensions, on a scale intended to be truly transformative. At the same time, the academy has drawn attention to the absence of evidence in support of the prevailing legacy rhetoric and raised a number of sociological concerns, not least the socially unequitable distribution of purported benefits. This study investigated how young people living in the core hosting zone related to, and were impacted upon, by the CWG and its associated developments and activities with reference to their socio-spatial horizons, the primary outcome of interest. An ‘ideal world’ Logic Model hypothesised that four mechanisms, identified from official legacy documents and social theories, would alter young people’s subjective readings of the world by virtue of broadening their social networks, extending their spatial boundaries and altering their mind sets. A qualitative methodology facilitated the gathering of situated and contextualised accounts of young people’s attitudes, perceptions, beliefs and behaviours relating to Glasgow 2014. In-depth interviews and focus groups were conducted before and after the Games with 26 young people, aged 14-16 years, at two schools in the East End. This approach was instrumental in privileging the interests of people ‘on the ground’ over those of city-wide and national stakeholders. The findings showed that young people perceived the dominant legacy benefit to be an improved reputation and image for Glasgow and the East End. Primary beneficiaries were identified by them as those with vested business interests e.g. retailers, restaurateurs, and hoteliers, as well as national and local government, with low expectations of personal dividends or ‘trickle down’ benefits. Support for Glasgow 2014 did not necessarily translate into individual engagement with the various cultural and sporting activities leading up to the CWG, including the event itself. The study found that young people who engaged most were those who had the ability to ‘read’ the opportunities available to them and who had the social, cultural and economic capital necessary to grasp them, with the corollary that those who might have gained most were the least likely to have engaged with the CWG. Doubts articulated by research participants about the social sustainability of Glasgow 2014 underscored inherent tensions between the short-lived thrill of the spectacle and the anticipated longevity of its impacts. The headline message is that hosting sporting mega events might not be an effective means of delivering social change. Aspirant host cities should consider more socially equitable alternatives to sporting mega events prior to bidding; and future host cities should endeavour to engage more purposefully with more young people over longer time frames.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.