Considering climate change in the development of marine protected areas

Marine ecosystems are facing a diverse range of threats, including climate change, prompting international efforts to safeguard marine biodiversity through the use of spatial management measures. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have been implemented as a conservation tool throughout the world, but their usefulness and effectiveness is strongly related to climate change. However, few MPA programmes have directly considered climate change in the design, management or monitoring of an MPA network. Under international obligations, EU, UK and national targets, Scotland has developed an MPA network that aims to protect marine biodiversity and contribute to the vision of a clean, healthy and productive marine environment. This is the first study to critically analyse the Scottish MPA process and highlight areas which may be improved upon in further iterations of the network in the context of climate change. Initially, a critical review of the Scottish MPA process considered how ecological principles for MPA network design were incorporated into the process, how stakeholder perceptions were considered and crucially what consideration was given to the influence of climate change on the eventual effectiveness of the network. The results indicated that to make a meaningful contribution to marine biodiversity protection for Europe the Scottish MPA network should: i) fully adopt best practice ecological principles ii) ensure effective protection and iii) explicitly consider climate change in the management, monitoring and future iterations of the network. However, this review also highlighted the difficulties of incorporating considerations of climate change into an already complex process. A series of international case studies from British Columbia, Canada; central California, USA; the Great Barrier Reef, Australia and the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand, were then conducted to investigate perceptions of how climate change has been considered in the design, implementation, management and monitoring of MPAs. The key lessons from this study included: i) strictly protected marine reserves are considered essential for climate change resilience and will be necessary as scientific reference sites to understand climate change effects ii) adaptive management of MPA networks is important but hard to implement iii) strictly protected reserves managed as ecosystems are the best option for an uncertain future. This work provides new insights into the policy and practical challenges MPA managers face under climate change scenarios. Based on the Scottish and international studies, the need to facilitate clear communication between academics, policy makers and stakeholders was recognised in order to progress MPA policy delivery and to ensure decisions were jointly formed and acceptable. A Delphi technique was used to develop a series of recommendations for considering climate change in Scotland’s MPA process. The Delphi participant panel was selected for their knowledge of the Scottish MPA process and included stakeholders, policy makers and academics with expertise in MPA research. The results from the first round of the Delphi technique suggested that differing views of success would likely influence opinions regarding required management of MPAs, and in turn, the data requirements to support management action decisions. The second round of the Delphi technique explored this further and indicated that there was a fundamental dichotomy in panellists’ views of a successful MPA network depending upon whether they believed the MPAs should be strictly protected or allow for sustainable use. A third, focus group round of the Delphi Technique developed a feature-based management scenario matrix to aid in deciding upon management actions in light of changes occurring in the MPA network. This thesis highlights that if the Scottish MPA network is to fulfil objectives of conservation and restoration, the implications of climate change for the design, management and monitoring of the network must be considered. In particular, there needs to be a greater focus on: i) incorporating ecological principles that directly address climate change ii) effective protection that builds resilience of the marine and linked social environment iii) developing a focused, strong and adaptable monitoring framework iv) ensuring mechanisms for adaptive management.

Understanding and validating accelerometry as a measure of physical activity in children with intellectual disabilities

Background Physical activity in children with intellectual disabilities is a neglected area of study, which is most apparent in relation to physical activity measurement research. Although objective measures, specifically accelerometers, are widely used in research involving children with intellectual disabilities, existing research is based on measurement methods and data interpretation techniques generalised from typically developing children. However, due to physiological and biomechanical differences between these populations, questions have been raised in the existing literature on the validity of generalising data interpretation techniques from typically developing children to children with intellectual disabilities. Therefore, there is a need to conduct population-specific measurement research for children with intellectual disabilities and develop valid methods to interpret accelerometer data, which will increase our understanding of physical activity in this population. Methods Study 1: A systematic review was initially conducted to increase the knowledge base on how accelerometers were used within existing physical activity research involving children with intellectual disabilities and to identify important areas for future research. A systematic search strategy was used to identify relevant articles which used accelerometry-based monitors to quantify activity levels in ambulatory children with intellectual disabilities. Based on best practice guidelines, a novel form was developed to extract data based on 17 research components of accelerometer use. Accelerometer use in relation to best practice guidelines was calculated using percentage scores on a study-by-study and component-by-component basis. Study 2: To investigate the effect of data interpretation methods on the estimation of physical activity intensity in children with intellectual disabilities, a secondary data analysis was conducted. Nine existing sets of child-specific ActiGraph intensity cut points were applied to accelerometer data collected from 10 children with intellectual disabilities during an activity session. Four one-way repeated measures ANOVAs were used to examine differences in estimated time spent in sedentary, moderate, vigorous, and moderate to vigorous intensity activity. Post-hoc pairwise comparisons with Bonferroni adjustments were additionally used to identify where significant differences occurred. Study 3: The feasibility on a laboratory-based calibration protocol developed for typically developing children was investigated in children with intellectual disabilities. Specifically, the feasibility of activities, measurements, and recruitment was investigated. Five children with intellectual disabilities and five typically developing children participated in 14 treadmill-based and free-living activities. In addition, resting energy expenditure was measured and a treadmill-based graded exercise test was used to assess cardiorespiratory fitness. Breath-by-breath respiratory gas exchange and accelerometry were continually measured during all activities. Feasibility was assessed using observations, activity completion rates, and respiratory data. Study 4: Thirty-six children with intellectual disabilities participated in a semi-structured school-based physical activity session to calibrate accelerometry for the estimation of physical activity intensity. Participants wore a hip-mounted ActiGraph wGT3X+ accelerometer, with direct observation (SOFIT) used as the criterion measure. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were conducted to determine the optimal accelerometer cut points for sedentary, moderate, and vigorous intensity physical activity. Study 5: To cross-validate the calibrated cut points and compare classification accuracy with existing cut points developed in typically developing children, a sub-sample of 14 children with intellectual disabilities who participated in the school-based sessions, as described in Study 4, were included in this study. To examine the validity, classification agreement was investigated between the criterion measure of SOFIT and each set of cut points using sensitivity, specificity, total agreement, and Cohen’s kappa scores. Results Study 1: Ten full text articles were included in this review. The percentage of review criteria met ranged from 12%−47%. Various methods of accelerometer use were reported, with most use decisions not based on population-specific research. A lack of measurement research, specifically the calibration/validation of accelerometers for children with intellectual disabilities, is limiting the ability of researchers to make appropriate and valid accelerometer use decisions. Study 2: The choice of cut points had significant and clinically meaningful effects on the estimation of physical activity intensity and sedentary behaviour. For the 71-minute session, estimations for time spent in each intensity between cut points ranged from: sedentary = 9.50 (± 4.97) to 31.90 (± 6.77) minutes; moderate = 8.10 (± 4.07) to 40.40 (± 5.74) minutes; vigorous = 0.00 (± .00) to 17.40 (± 6.54) minutes; and moderate to vigorous = 8.80 (± 4.64) to 46.50 (± 6.02) minutes. Study 3: All typically developing participants and one participant with intellectual disabilities completed the protocol. No participant met the maximal criteria for the graded exercise test or attained a steady state during the resting measurements. Limitations were identified with the usability of respiratory gas exchange equipment and the validity of measurements. The school-based recruitment strategy was not effective, with a participation rate of 6%. Therefore, a laboratory-based calibration protocol was not feasible for children with intellectual disabilities. Study 4: The optimal vertical axis cut points (cpm) were ≤ 507 (sedentary), 1008−2300 (moderate), and ≥ 2301 (vigorous). Sensitivity scores ranged from 81−88%, specificity 81−85%, and AUC .87−.94. The optimal vector magnitude cut points (cpm) were ≤ 1863 (sedentary), ≥ 2610 (moderate) and ≥ 4215 (vigorous). Sensitivity scores ranged from 80−86%, specificity 77−82%, and AUC .86−.92. Therefore, the vertical axis cut points provide a higher level of accuracy in comparison to the vector magnitude cut points. Study 5: Substantial to excellent classification agreement was found for the calibrated cut points. The calibrated sedentary cut point (ĸ =.66) provided comparable classification agreement with existing cut points (ĸ =.55−.67). However, the existing moderate and vigorous cut points demonstrated low sensitivity (0.33−33.33% and 1.33−53.00%, respectively) and disproportionately high specificity (75.44−.98.12% and 94.61−100.00%, respectively), indicating that cut points developed in typically developing children are too high to accurately classify physical activity intensity in children with intellectual disabilities. Conclusions The studies reported in this thesis are the first to calibrate and validate accelerometry for the estimation of physical activity intensity in children with intellectual disabilities. In comparison with typically developing children, children with intellectual disabilities require lower cut points for the classification of moderate and vigorous intensity activity. Therefore, generalising existing cut points to children with intellectual disabilities will underestimate physical activity and introduce systematic measurement error, which could be a contributing factor to the low levels of physical activity reported for children with intellectual disabilities in previous research.

An ontology for risk management of digital collections

Maintaining accessibility to and understanding of digital information over time is a complex challenge that often requires contributions and interventions from a variety of individuals and organizations. The processes of preservation planning and evaluation are fundamentally implicit and share similar complexity. Both demand comprehensive knowledge and understanding of every aspect of to-be-preserved content and the contexts within which preservation is undertaken. Consequently, means are required for the identification, documentation and association of those properties of data, representation and management mechanisms that in combination lend value, facilitate interaction and influence the preservation process. These properties may be almost limitless in terms of diversity, but are integral to the establishment of classes of risk exposure, and the planning and deployment of appropriate preservation strategies. We explore several research objectives within the course of this thesis. Our main objective is the conception of an ontology for risk management of digital collections. Incorporated within this are our aims to survey the contexts within which preservation has been undertaken successfully, the development of an appropriate methodology for risk management, the evaluation of existing preservation evaluation approaches and metrics, the structuring of best practice knowledge and lastly the demonstration of a range of tools that utilise our findings. We describe a mixed methodology that uses interview and survey, extensive content analysis, practical case study and iterative software and ontology development. We build on a robust foundation, the development of the Digital Repository Audit Method Based on Risk Assessment. We summarise the extent of the challenge facing the digital preservation community (and by extension users and creators of digital materials from many disciplines and operational contexts) and present the case for a comprehensive and extensible knowledge base of best practice. These challenges are manifested in the scale of data growth, the increasing complexity and the increasing onus on communities with no formal training to offer assurances of data management and sustainability. These collectively imply a challenge that demands an intuitive and adaptable means of evaluating digital preservation efforts. The need for individuals and organisations to validate the legitimacy of their own efforts is particularly prioritised. We introduce our approach, based on risk management. Risk is an expression of the likelihood of a negative outcome, and an expression of the impact of such an occurrence. We describe how risk management may be considered synonymous with preservation activity, a persistent effort to negate the dangers posed to information availability, usability and sustainability. Risk can be characterised according to associated goals, activities, responsibilities and policies in terms of both their manifestation and mitigation. They have the capacity to be deconstructed into their atomic units and responsibility for their resolution delegated appropriately. We continue to describe how the manifestation of risks typically spans an entire organisational environment, and as the focus of our analysis risk safeguards against omissions that may occur when pursuing functional, departmental or role-based assessment. We discuss the importance of relating risk-factors, through the risks themselves or associated system elements. To do so will yield the preservation best-practice knowledge base that is conspicuously lacking within the international digital preservation community. We present as research outcomes an encapsulation of preservation practice (and explicitly defined best practice) as a series of case studies, in turn distilled into atomic, related information elements. We conduct our analyses in the formal evaluation of memory institutions in the UK, US and continental Europe. Furthermore we showcase a series of applications that use the fruits of this research as their intellectual foundation. Finally we document our results in a range of technical reports and conference and journal articles. We present evidence of preservation approaches and infrastructures from a series of case studies conducted in a range of international preservation environments. We then aggregate this into a linked data structure entitled PORRO, an ontology relating preservation repository, object and risk characteristics, intended to support preservation decision making and evaluation. The methodology leading to this ontology is outlined, and lessons are exposed by revisiting legacy studies and exposing the resource and associated applications to evaluation by the digital preservation community.

Epidemiological studies of Johne’s Disease in cattle from Scottish farms, with a focus on slaughterhouse investigations

The PARABAN project has been a Scotland-wide initiative to develop and deliver farm-specific ‘best practice’ for the control of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in cattle using ‘Knowledge Exchange’. A range of partners have been involved, including nine ‘Champion Farms’. With input from the farmer, his/her vet and PARABAN advisors, a tailored monitoring and control programme was devised for each ‘Champion Farm’, taking into account the history of the disease on the farm, the physical facilities available and farmer objectives. Culling decisions based on live animal test results were incorporated into each farm-specific programme to complement the management programme already in place to maintain each herd. Results were analysed and discussed with all the partners throughout the project and then offered for wider scrutiny at farm open days. Feedback and questions from these open days have been used to complete the ‘Knowledge Exchange’ cycle. As a major component of the PARABAN project the author collected samples from all adult animals culled from ‘Champion Farms’ at slaughter or as fallen stock, irrespective of in-life MAP test status. These were then subjected to histopathological examination by experienced veterinary pathologists and the results compared with the results from in-life MAP testing. This was intended to evaluate the contribution slaughterhouse sampling could make towards decision making for disease control on farm and formed the main aim of this thesis. In total, samples of terminal ileum and draining lymph node were collected from three-hundred and fifty-two animals. A positive result on histopathology was defined as the presence of lesions typical of MAP and also the presence of acid-fast bacteria within the sections. There was found to be fair agreement between the overall results from histopathology and serum ELISA (Kappa = 0.33), though there appeared to be some variation in agreement between the tests on the individual ‘Champion Farms’. The presence of MAP was confirmed in seven of the eight farms which contributed animals to this study, despite sometimes prolonged efforts at controlling the disease. A separate study was undertaken to make use of the archives of the Scottish Centre for Production Animal Health and Food Safety at the Veterinary School, University of Glasgow. The archive contained records of cases from across southern Scotland and northern England. Analysis of the data generated from examination of these records suggested that MAP is widespread within the Scottish cattle herd and may well be increasing