3 resultados para Uncovered interest parity,
em Glasgow Theses Service
Resumo:
Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common cancer in Europe, with the second highest mortality rate. Although prognosis is improving, survival rates remain poor for those presenting with the most advanced stages of the disease. There is therefore a need for improved early diagnosis and thus a greater understanding of the early stages of the development of colorectal tumours is desirable. Additionally, as most deaths in colorectal cancer are due to advanced metastatic disease, it is of great interest to explore any potential mechanisms by which metastatic disease can be inhibited. N-WASP is a ubiquitously expressed protein with multiple intracellular roles including actin regulation and maintaining stability of epithelial cell-cell junctions. Through its role as an actin regulator, it has been implicated in the processes of invasion and metastasis of multiple cancer types. Its role in the development and progression of colorectal cancer however has not been fully explored. This thesis will present a series of in vitro and in vivo studies that were carried out with the aim of answering the following questions: • Does N-Wasp have a role in normal intestinal homeostasis? • Does N-Wasp knockout affect the development of tumours in a mouse model of intestinal tumourigenesis? • Does N-Wasp knockout affect the invasive properties of intestinal cancer in vitro? • Does N-WASP correlate with prognosis or other indicators in human colorectal cancer TMAs? Findings from the in vivo experiments, using an inducible, gut-specific knockout model, have uncovered potential roles for N-Wasp in regulating differentiation and migration of intestinal epithelial cells. Although it had no effect in short term models of intestinal hyperproliferation, N-Wasp knockout increased tumour burden and decreased survival in an established in vivo model of intestinal tumourigenesis, in which there is heterozygous loss of Apc (Apcfl/+). No effect was seen on tumour development or survival when additional N-WASP knockout was introduced into a more rapid model, with heterozygous loss of Apc and mutation of Kras (Apcfl/+ KrasG12D/+). N-WASP expression in human colorectal cancer was assessed using immunohistochemical staining of two tissue microarrays. Low levels of N-WASP expression were found to be associated with presence of MMR deficiency. There was no statistically significant difference in overall or cancer specific survival based on N-WASP expression. Collectively, the data presented here suggest a previously unreported role for N-WASP in regulation of intestinal epithelial differentiation and indicate that it may act as a tumour suppressor against development of benign precursor lesions of colorectal cancer. Further research is warranted to delineate the mechanisms underlying these processes.
Resumo:
This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.
Resumo:
This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.