Geothermal district heating networks: modelling novel operational strategies incorporating heat storage

The value of integrating a heat storage into a geothermal district heating system has been investigated. The behaviour of the system under a novel operational strategy has been simulated focusing on the energetic, economic and environmental effects of the new strategy of incorporation of the heat storage within the system. A typical geothermal district heating system consists of several production wells, a system of pipelines for the transportation of the hot water to end-users, one or more re-injection wells and peak-up devices (usually fossil-fuel boilers). Traditionally in these systems, the production wells change their production rate throughout the day according to heat demand, and if their maximum capacity is exceeded the peak-up devices are used to meet the balance of the heat demand. In this study, it is proposed to maintain a constant geothermal production and add heat storage into the network. Subsequently, hot water will be stored when heat demand is lower than the production and the stored hot water will be released into the system to cover the peak demands (or part of these). It is not intended to totally phase-out the peak-up devices, but to decrease their use, as these will often be installed anyway for back-up purposes. Both the integration of a heat storage in such a system as well as the novel operational strategy are the main novelties of this thesis. A robust algorithm for the sizing of these systems has been developed. The main inputs are the geothermal production data, the heat demand data throughout one year or more and the topology of the installation. The outputs are the sizing of the whole system, including the necessary number of production wells, the size of the heat storage and the dimensions of the pipelines amongst others. The results provide several useful insights into the initial design considerations for these systems, emphasizing particularly the importance of heat losses. Simulations are carried out for three different cases of sizing of the installation (small, medium and large) to examine the influence of system scale. In the second phase of work, two algorithms are developed which study in detail the operation of the installation throughout a random day and a whole year, respectively. The first algorithm can be a potentially powerful tool for the operators of the installation, who can know a priori how to operate the installation on a random day given the heat demand. The second algorithm is used to obtain the amount of electricity used by the pumps as well as the amount of fuel used by the peak-up boilers over a whole year. These comprise the main operational costs of the installation and are among the main inputs of the third part of the study. In the third part of the study, an integrated energetic, economic and environmental analysis of the studied installation is carried out together with a comparison with the traditional case. The results show that by implementing heat storage under the novel operational strategy, heat is generated more cheaply as all the financial indices improve, more geothermal energy is utilised and less fuel is used in the peak-up boilers, with subsequent environmental benefits, when compared to the traditional case. Furthermore, it is shown that the most attractive case of sizing is the large one, although the addition of the heat storage most greatly impacts the medium case of sizing. In other words, the geothermal component of the installation should be sized as large as possible. This analysis indicates that the proposed solution is beneficial from energetic, economic, and environmental perspectives. Therefore, it can be stated that the aim of this study is achieved in its full potential. Furthermore, the new models for the sizing, operation and economic/energetic/environmental analyses of these kind of systems can be used with few adaptations for real cases, making the practical applicability of this study evident. Having this study as a starting point, further work could include the integration of these systems with end-user demands, further analysis of component parts of the installation (such as the heat exchangers) and the integration of a heat pump to maximise utilisation of geothermal energy.

Investigating disease persistence in host vector systems: dengue as a case study

The investigation of pathogen persistence in vector-borne diseases is important in different ecological and epidemiological contexts. In this thesis, I have developed deterministic and stochastic models to help investigating the pathogen persistence in host-vector systems by using efficient modelling paradigms. A general introduction with aims and objectives of the studies conducted in the thesis are provided in Chapter 1. The mathematical treatment of models used in the thesis is provided in Chapter 2 where the models are found locally asymptotically stable. The models used in the rest of the thesis are based on either the same or similar mathematical structure studied in this chapter. After that, there are three different experiments that are conducted in this thesis to study the pathogen persistence. In Chapter 3, I characterize pathogen persistence in terms of the Critical Community Size (CCS) and find its relationship with the model parameters. In this study, the stochastic versions of two epidemiologically different host-vector models are used for estimating CCS. I note that the model parameters and their algebraic combination, in addition to the seroprevalence level of the host population, can be used to quantify CCS. The study undertaken in Chapter 4 is used to estimate pathogen persistence using both deterministic and stochastic versions of a model with seasonal birth rate of the vectors. Through stochastic simulations we investigate the pattern of epidemics after the introduction of an infectious individual at different times of the year. The results show that the disease dynamics are altered by the seasonal variation. The higher levels of pre-existing seroprevalence reduces the probability of invasion of dengue. In Chapter 5, I considered two alternate ways to represent the dynamics of a host-vector model. Both of the approximate models are investigated for the parameter regions where the approximation fails to hold. Moreover, three metrics are used to compare them with the Full model. In addition to the computational benefits, these approximations are used to investigate to what degree the inclusion of the vector population in the dynamics of the system is important. Finally, in Chapter 6, I present the summary of studies undertaken and possible extensions for the future work.

Numerical modelling of braided fibres for reinforced concrete

Fire has been always a major concern for designers of steel and concrete structures. Designing fire-resistant structural elements is not an easy task due to several limitations such as the lack of fire-resistant construction materials. Concrete reinforcement cover and external insulation are the most commonly adopted systems to protect concrete and steel from overheating, while spalling of concrete is minimised by using HPFRC instead of standard concrete. Although these methodologies work very well for low rise concrete structures, this is not the case for high-rise and inaccessible buildings where fire loading is much longer. Fire can permanently damage structures that cost a lot of money. This is unsafe and can lead to loss of life. In this research, the author proposes a new type of main reinforcement for concrete structures which can provide better fire-resistance than steel or FRP re-bars. This consists of continuous braided fibre rope, generally made from fire-resistant materials such as carbon or glass fibre. These fibres have excellent tensile strengths, sometimes in excess of ten times greater than steel. In addition to fire-resistance, these ropes can produce lighter and corrosive resistant structures. Avoiding the use of expensive resin binders, fibres are easily bound together using braiding techniques, ensuring that tensile stress is evenly distributed throughout the reinforcement. In order to consider braided ropes as a form of reinforcement it is first necessary to establish the mechanical performance at room temperature and investigate the pull-out resistance for both unribbed and ribbed ropes. Ribbing of ropes was achieved by braiding the rope over a series of glass beads. Adhesion between the rope and concrete was drastically improved due to ribbing, and further improved by pre-stressing ropes and reducing the slacked fibres. Two types of material have been considered for the ropes: carbon and aramid. An implicit finite element approach is proposed to model braided fibres using Total Lagrangian formulation, based on the theory of small strains and large rotations. Modelling tows and strands as elastic transversely isotropic materials was a good assumption when stiff and brittle fibres such as carbon and glass fibres are considered. The rope-to-concrete and strand-to-strand bond interaction/adhesion was numerically simulated using newly proposed hierarchical higher order interface elements. Elastic and linear damage cohesive models were used effectively to simulate non-penetrative 'free' sliding interaction between strands, and the adhesion between ropes and concrete respectively. Numerical simulation showed similar de-bonding features when compared with experimental pull-out results of braided ribbed rope reinforced concrete.