The role of heart rate as a risk marker for predicting adverse outcomes

Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of death around the world. Resting heart rate has been shown to be a strong and independent risk marker for adverse cardiovascular events and mortality, and yet its role as a predictor of risk is somewhat overlooked in clinical practice. With the aim of highlighting its prognostic value, the role of resting heart rate as a risk marker for death and other adverse outcomes was further examined in a number of different patient populations. A systematic review of studies that previously assessed the prognostic value of resting heart rate for mortality and other adverse cardiovascular outcomes was presented. New analyses of nine clinical trials were carried out. Both the original and extended Cox model that allows for analysis of time-dependent covariates were used to evaluate and compare the predictive value of baseline and time-updated heart rate measurements for adverse outcomes in the CAPRICORN, EUROPA, PROSPER, PERFORM, BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT populations. Pooled individual patient meta-analyses of the CAPRICORN, EPHESUS, OPTIMAAL and VALIANT trials, and the BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT trials, were also performed. The discrimination and calibration of the models applied were evaluated using Harrell’s C-statistic and likelihood ratio tests, respectively. Finally, following on from the systematic review, meta-analyses of the relation between baseline and time-updated heart rate, and the risk of death from any cause and from cardiovascular causes, were conducted. Both elevated baseline and time-updated resting heart rates were found to be associated with an increase in the risk of mortality and other adverse cardiovascular events in all of the populations analysed. In some cases, elevated time-updated heart rate was associated with risk of events where baseline heart rate was not. Time-updated heart rate also contributed additional information about the risk of certain events despite knowledge of baseline heart rate or previous heart rate measurements. The addition of resting heart rate to the models where resting heart rate was found to be associated with risk of outcome improved both discrimination and calibration, and in general, the models including time-updated heart rate along with baseline or the previous heart rate measurement had the highest and similar C-statistics, and thus the greatest discriminative ability. The meta-analyses demonstrated that a 5bpm higher baseline heart rate was associated with a 7.9% and an 8.0% increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively (both p less than 0.001). Additionally, a 5bpm higher time-updated heart rate (adjusted for baseline heart rate in eight of the ten studies included in the analyses) was associated with a 12.8% (p less than 0.001) and a 10.9% (p less than 0.001) increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively. These findings may motivate health care professionals to routinely assess resting heart rate in order to identify individuals at a higher risk of adverse events. The fact that the addition of time-updated resting heart rate improved the discrimination and calibration of models for certain outcomes, even if only modestly, strengthens the case that it be added to traditional risk models. The findings, however, are of particular importance, and have greater implications for the clinical management of patients with pre-existing disease. An elevated, or increasing heart rate over time could be used as a tool, potentially alongside other established risk scores, to help doctors identify patient deterioration or those at higher risk, who might benefit from more intensive monitoring or treatment re-evaluation. Further exploration of the role of continuous recording of resting heart rate, say, when patients are at home, would be informative. In addition, investigation into the cost-effectiveness and optimal frequency of resting heart rate measurement is required. One of the most vital areas for future research is the definition of an objective cut-off value for the definition of a high resting heart rate.

The role of inflammation in vascular function and pregnancy outcome in the pregnant stroke prone spontaneously hypertensive rat

During pregnancy, the maternal cardiovascular system undergoes major adaptation. One of these changes is a 40-50 % increase in circulating blood volume which requires a systemic remodelling of the vasculature in order to regulate maternal blood pressure and maximise blood supply to the developing placenta and fetus. These changes are broadly conserved between humans and rats making them an appropriate pre-clinical model in which to study the underlying mechanisms of pregnancy-dependent cardiovascular remodelling. Whilst women are normally protected against cardiovascular disease; pregnancy marks a period of time where women are susceptible to cardiovascular complications. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of maternal mortality in the United Kingdom; in particular hypertensive conditions are among the most common complications of pregnancy. One of the main underlying pathologies of these pregnancy complications is thought to be a failure of the maternal cardiovascular system to adapt. The remodelling of the uterine arteries, which directly supply the maternal-fetal interface, is paramount to a healthy pregnancy. Failure of the uterine arteries to remodel sufficiently can result in a number of obstetric complications such as preeclampsia, fetal growth restriction and spontaneous pregnancy loss. At present, it is poorly understood whether this deficient vascular response is due to a predisposition from existing maternal cardiovascular risk factors, the physiological changes that occur during pregnancy or a combination of both. Previous work in our group employed the stroke prone spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHRSP) as a model to investigate pregnancy-dependent remodelling of the uterine arteries. The SHRSP develops hypertension from 6 weeks of age and can be contrasted with the control strain, the Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rat. The phenotype of the SHRSP is therefore reflective of the clinical situation of maternal chronic hypertension during pregnancy. We showed that the SHRSP exhibited a deficient uterine artery remodelling response with respect to both structure and function accompanied by a reduction in litter size relative to the WKY at gestational day (GD) 18. A previous intervention study using nifedipine in the SHRSP achieved successful blood pressure reduction from 6 weeks of age and throughout pregnancy; however uterine artery remodelling and litter size at GD18 was not improved. We concluded that the abnormal uterine artery remodelling present in the SHRSP was independent of chronic hypertension. From these findings, we hypothesised that the SHRSP could be a novel model of spontaneously deficient uterine artery remodelling in response to pregnancy which was underpinned by other as yet unidentified cardiovascular risk factors. In Chapter 1 of this thesis, I have characterised the maternal, placental and fetal phenotype in pregnant (GD18) SHRSP and WKY. The pregnant SHRSP exhibit features of left ventricular hypertrophy in response to pregnancy and altered expression of maternal plasma biomarkers which have been previously associated with hypertension in human pregnancy. I developed a protocol for accurate dissection of the rat uteroplacental unit using qPCR probes specific for each layer. This allowed me to make an accurate and specific statement about gene expression in the SHRSP GD18 placenta; where oxidative stress related gene markers were increased in the vascular compartments. The majority of SHRSP placenta presented at GD18 with a blackened ring which encircled the tissue. Further investigation of the placenta using western blot for caspase 3 cleavage determined that this was likely due to increased cell death in the SHRSP placenta. The SHRSP also presented with a loss of one particular placental cell type at GD18: the glycogen cells. These cells could have been the target of cell death in the SHRSP placenta or were utilised early in pregnancy as a source of energy due to the deficient uterine artery blood supply. Blastocyst implantation was not altered but resorption rate was increased between SHRSP and WKY; indicating that the reduction in litter size in the SHRSP was primarily due to late (>GD14) pregnancy loss. Fetal growth was not restricted in SHRSP which led to the conclusion that SHRSP sacrifice part of their litter to deliver a smaller number of healthier pups. Activation of the immune system is a common pathway that has been implicated in the development of both hypertension and adverse pregnancy outcome. In Chapter 2, I proposed that this may be a mechanism of interest in SHRSP pregnancy and measured the pro-inflammatory cytokine, TNFα, as a marker of inflammation in pregnant SHRSP and WKY and in the placentas from these animals. TNFα was up-regulated in maternal plasma and urine from the GD18 SHRSP. In addition, TNFα release was increased from the GD18 SHRSP placenta as was the expression of the pro-inflammatory TNFα receptor 1 (Tnfr1). In order to investigate whether this excess TNFα was detrimental to SHRSP pregnancy, a vehicle-controlled intervention study using etanercept (a monoclonal antibody which works as a TNFα antagonist) was carried out. Etanercept treatment at GD0, 6, 12 and 18 resulted in an improvement in pregnancy outcome in the SHRSP with an increased litter size and reduced resorption rate. Furthermore, there was an improved uterine artery function in GD18 SHRSP treated with etanercept which was associated with an improved uterine artery blood flow over the course of gestation. In Chapter 3, I sought to identify the source of this detrimental excess of TNFα by designing a panel for maternal leukocytes in the blood and placenta at GD18. A population of CD3- CD161+ cells, which are defined as rat natural killer (NK) cells, were increased in number in the SHRSP. Intracellular flow cytometry also identified this cell type as a source of excess TNFα in blood and placenta from pregnant SHRSP. I then went on to evaluate the effects of etanercept treatment on these CD3- CD161+ cells and showed that etanercept reduced the expression of CD161 and the cytotoxic molecule, granzyme B, in the NK cells. Thus, etanercept limits the cytotoxicity and potential damaging effect of these NK cells in the SHRSP placenta. Analysing the urinary peptidome has clinical potential to identify novel pathways involved with disease and/or to develop biomarker panels to aid and stratify diagnosis. In Chapter 4, I utilised the SHRSP as a pre-clinical model to identify novel urinary peptides associated with hypertensive pregnancy. Firstly, a characterisation study was carried out in the kidney of the WKY and SHRSP. Urine samples from WKY and SHRSP taken at pre-pregnancy, mid-pregnancy (GD12) and late pregnancy (GD18) were used in the peptidomic screen. In order to capture peptides which were markers of hypertensive pregnancy from the urinary peptidomic data, I focussed on those that were only changed in a strain dependent manner at GD12 and 18 and not pre-pregnancy. Peptide fragments from the uromodulin protein were identified from this analysis to be increased in pregnant SHRSP relative to pregnant WKY. This increase in uromodulin was validated at the SHRSP kidney level using qPCR. Uromodulin has previously been identified to be a candidate molecule involved in systemic arterial hypertension but not in hypertensive pregnancy thus is a promising target for further study. In summary, we have characterised the SHRSP as the first model of maternal chronic hypertension during pregnancy and identified that inflammation mediated by TNFα and NK cells plays a key role in the pathology. The evidence presented in this thesis establishes the SHRSP as a pre-clinical model for pregnancy research and can be continued into clinical studies in pregnant women with chronic hypertension which remains an area of unmet research need.