The role of heart rate as a risk marker for predicting adverse outcomes

Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of death around the world. Resting heart rate has been shown to be a strong and independent risk marker for adverse cardiovascular events and mortality, and yet its role as a predictor of risk is somewhat overlooked in clinical practice. With the aim of highlighting its prognostic value, the role of resting heart rate as a risk marker for death and other adverse outcomes was further examined in a number of different patient populations. A systematic review of studies that previously assessed the prognostic value of resting heart rate for mortality and other adverse cardiovascular outcomes was presented. New analyses of nine clinical trials were carried out. Both the original and extended Cox model that allows for analysis of time-dependent covariates were used to evaluate and compare the predictive value of baseline and time-updated heart rate measurements for adverse outcomes in the CAPRICORN, EUROPA, PROSPER, PERFORM, BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT populations. Pooled individual patient meta-analyses of the CAPRICORN, EPHESUS, OPTIMAAL and VALIANT trials, and the BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT trials, were also performed. The discrimination and calibration of the models applied were evaluated using Harrell’s C-statistic and likelihood ratio tests, respectively. Finally, following on from the systematic review, meta-analyses of the relation between baseline and time-updated heart rate, and the risk of death from any cause and from cardiovascular causes, were conducted. Both elevated baseline and time-updated resting heart rates were found to be associated with an increase in the risk of mortality and other adverse cardiovascular events in all of the populations analysed. In some cases, elevated time-updated heart rate was associated with risk of events where baseline heart rate was not. Time-updated heart rate also contributed additional information about the risk of certain events despite knowledge of baseline heart rate or previous heart rate measurements. The addition of resting heart rate to the models where resting heart rate was found to be associated with risk of outcome improved both discrimination and calibration, and in general, the models including time-updated heart rate along with baseline or the previous heart rate measurement had the highest and similar C-statistics, and thus the greatest discriminative ability. The meta-analyses demonstrated that a 5bpm higher baseline heart rate was associated with a 7.9% and an 8.0% increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively (both p less than 0.001). Additionally, a 5bpm higher time-updated heart rate (adjusted for baseline heart rate in eight of the ten studies included in the analyses) was associated with a 12.8% (p less than 0.001) and a 10.9% (p less than 0.001) increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively. These findings may motivate health care professionals to routinely assess resting heart rate in order to identify individuals at a higher risk of adverse events. The fact that the addition of time-updated resting heart rate improved the discrimination and calibration of models for certain outcomes, even if only modestly, strengthens the case that it be added to traditional risk models. The findings, however, are of particular importance, and have greater implications for the clinical management of patients with pre-existing disease. An elevated, or increasing heart rate over time could be used as a tool, potentially alongside other established risk scores, to help doctors identify patient deterioration or those at higher risk, who might benefit from more intensive monitoring or treatment re-evaluation. Further exploration of the role of continuous recording of resting heart rate, say, when patients are at home, would be informative. In addition, investigation into the cost-effectiveness and optimal frequency of resting heart rate measurement is required. One of the most vital areas for future research is the definition of an objective cut-off value for the definition of a high resting heart rate.

Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging in the diagnosis and determination of outcome of pulmonary hypertension

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a rare but serious condition that causes progressive right ventricular (RV) failure and death. PH may be idiopathic, associated with underlying connective-tissue disease or hypoxic lung disease, and is also increasingly being observed in the setting of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). The management of PH has been revolutionised by the recent development of new disease-targeted therapies which are beneficial in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), but can be potentially harmful in PH due to left heart disease, so accurate diagnosis and classification of patients is essential. These PAH therapies improve exercise capacity and pulmonary haemodynamics, but their overall effect on the right ventricle remains unclear. Current practice in the UK is to assess treatment response with 6-minute walk test and NYHA functional class, neither of which truly reflects RV function. Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging has been established as the gold standard for the evaluation of right ventricular structure and function, but it also allows a non-invasive and accurate study of the left heart. The aims of this thesis were to investigate the use of CMR in the diagnosis of PH, in the assessment of treatment response, and in predicting survival in idiopathic and connective-tissue disease associated PAH. In Chapter 3, a left atrial volume (LAV) threshold of 43 ml/m2 measured with CMR was able to distinguish idiopathic PAH from PH due to HFpEF (sensitivity 97%, specificity 100%). In Chapter 4, disease-targeted PAH therapy resulted in significant improvements in RV and left ventricular ejection fraction (p<0.001 and p=0.0007, respectively), RV stroke volume index (p<0.0001), and left ventricular end-diastolic volume index (p=0.0015). These corresponded to observed improvements in functional class and exercise capacity, although correlation coefficients between Δ 6MWD and Δ RVEF or Δ LVEDV were low. Finally, in Chapter 5, one-year and three-year survival was worse in CTD-PAH (75% and 53%) than in IPAH (83% and 74%), despite similar baseline clinical characteristics, lung function, pulmonary haemodynamics and treatment. Baseline right ventricular stroke volume index was an independent predictor of survival in both conditions. The presence of LV systolic dysfunction was of prognostic significance in CTD-PAH but not IPAH, and a higher LAV was observed in CTD-PAH suggesting a potential contribution from LV diastolic dysfunction in this group.

Examination of myocardial electrophysiology using novel panoramic optical mapping techniques

Optical mapping of voltage signals has revolutionised the field and study of cardiac electrophysiology by providing the means to visualise changes in electrical activity at a high temporal and spatial resolution from the cellular to the whole heart level under both normal and disease conditions. The aim of this thesis was to develop a novel method of panoramic optical mapping using a single camera and to study myocardial electrophysiology in isolated Langendorff-perfused rabbit hearts. First, proper procedures for selection, filtering and analysis of the optical data recorded from the panoramic optical mapping system were established. This work was followed by extensive characterisation of the electrical activity across the epicardial surface of the preparation investigating time and heart dependent effects. In an initial study, features of epicardial electrophysiology were examined as the temperature of the heart was reduced below physiological values. This manoeuvre was chosen to mimic the temperatures experienced during various levels of hypothermia in vivo, a condition known to promote arrhythmias. The facility for panoramic optical mapping allowed the extent of changes in conduction timing and pattern of ventricular activation and repolarisation to be assessed. In the main experimental section, changes in epicardial electrical activity were assessed under various pacing conditions in both normal hearts and in a rabbit model of chronic MI. In these experiments, there was significant changes in the pattern of electrical activation corresponding with the changes in pacing regime. These experiments demonstrated a negative correlation between activation time and APD, which was not maintained during ventricular pacing. This suggests that activation pattern is not the sole determinant of action potential duration in intact hearts. Lastly, a realistic 3D computational model of the rabbit left ventricle was developed to simulate the passive and active mechanical properties of the heart. The aim of this model was to infer further information from the experimental optical mapping studies. In future, it would be feasible to gain insight into the electrical and mechanical performance of the heart by simulating experimental pacing conditions in the model.

Cognitive impairment in heart failure

The clinical syndrome of heart failure is one of the leading causes of hospitalisation and mortality in older adults. Due to ageing of the general population and improved survival from cardiac disease the prevalence of heart failure is rising. Despite the fact that the majority of patients with heart failure are aged over 65 years old, many with multiple co-morbidities, the association between cognitive impairment and heart failure has received relatively little research interest compared to other aspects of cardiac disease. The presence of concomitant cognitive impairment has implications for the management of patients with heart failure in the community. There are many evidence based pharmacological therapies used in heart failure management which obviously rely on patient education regarding compliance. Also central to the treatment of heart failure is patient self-monitoring for signs indicative of clinical deterioration which may prompt them to seek medical assistance or initiate a therapeutic intervention e.g. taking additional diuretic. Adherence and self-management may be jeopardised by cognitive impairment. Formal diagnosis of cognitive impairment requires evidence of abnormalities on neuropsychological testing (typically a result ≥1.5 standard deviation below the age-standardised mean) in at least one cognitive domain. Cognitive impairment is associated with an increased risk of dementia and people with mild cognitive impairment develop dementia at a rate of 10-15% per year, compared with a rate of 1-2% per year in healthy controls.1 Cognitive impairment has been reported in a variety of cardiovascular disorders. It is well documented among patients with hypertension, atrial fibrillation and coronary artery disease, especially after coronary artery bypass grafting. This background is relevant to the study of patients with heart failure as many, if not most, have a history of one or more of these co-morbidities. A systematic review of the literature to date has shown a wide variation in the reported prevalence of cognitive impairment in heart failure. This range in variation probably reflects small study sample sizes, differences in the heart failure populations studied (inpatients versus outpatients), neuropsychological tests employed and threshold values used to define cognitive impairment. The main aim of this study was to identify the prevalence of cognitive impairment in a representative sample of heart failure patients and to examine whether this association was due to heart failure per se rather than the common cardiovascular co-morbidities that often accompany it such as atherosclerosis and atrial fibrillation. Of the 817 potential participants screened, 344 were included in this study. The study cohort included 196 patients with HF, 61 patients with ischaemic heart disease and no HF and 87 healthy control participants. The HF cohort consisted of 70 patients with HF and coronary artery disease in sinus rhythm, 51 patients with no coronary artery disease in sinus rhythm and 75 patients with HF and atrial fibrillation. All patients with HF had evidence of HF-REF with a LVEF <45% on transthoracic echocardiography. The majority of the cohort was male and elderly. HF patients with AF were more likely to have multiple co-morbidities. Patients recruited from cardiac rehabilitation clinics had proven coronary artery disease, no clinical HF and a LVEF >55%. The ischaemic heart disease group were relatively well matched to healthy controls who had no previous diagnosis of any chronic illness, prescribed no regular medication and also had a LVEF >55%. All participants underwent the same baseline investigations and there were no obvious differences in baseline demographics between each of the cohorts. All 344 participants attended for 2 study visits. Baseline investigations including physiological measurements, electrocardiography, echocardiography and laboratory testing were all completed at the initial screening visit. Participants were then invited to attend their second study visit within 10 days of the screening visit. 342 participants completed all neuropsychological assessments (2 participants failed to complete 1 questionnaire). A full comprehensive battery of neuropsychological assessment tools were administered in the 90 minute study visit. These included three global cognitive screening assessment tools (mini mental state examination, Montreal cognitive assessment tool and the repeatable battery for the assessment of neuropsychological status) and additional measures of executive function (an area we believe has been understudied to date). In total there were 9 cognitive tests performed. These were generally well tolerated. Data were also collected using quality of life questionnaires and health status measures. In addition to this, carers of the study participant were asked to complete a measure of caregiver strain and an informant questionnaire on cognitive decline. The prevalence of cognitive impairment varied significantly depending on the neuropsychological assessment tool used and cut-off value used to define cognitive impairment. Despite this, all assessment tools showed the same pattern of results with those patients with heart failure and atrial fibrillation having poorer cognitive performance than those with heart failure in sinus rhythm. Cognitive impairment was also more common in patients with cardiac disease (either coronary artery disease or heart failure) than age-, sex- and education-matched healthy controls, even after adjustment for common vascular risk factors.