Probabilistic design optimization of horizontal axis wind turbine rotors

Considerable interest in renewable energy has increased in recent years due to the concerns raised over the environmental impact of conventional energy sources and their price volatility. In particular, wind power has enjoyed a dramatic global growth in installed capacity over the past few decades. Nowadays, the advancement of wind turbine industry represents a challenge for several engineering areas, including materials science, computer science, aerodynamics, analytical design and analysis methods, testing and monitoring, and power electronics. In particular, the technological improvement of wind turbines is currently tied to the use of advanced design methodologies, allowing the designers to develop new and more efficient design concepts. Integrating mathematical optimization techniques into the multidisciplinary design of wind turbines constitutes a promising way to enhance the profitability of these devices. In the literature, wind turbine design optimization is typically performed deterministically. Deterministic optimizations do not consider any degree of randomness affecting the inputs of the system under consideration, and result, therefore, in an unique set of outputs. However, given the stochastic nature of the wind and the uncertainties associated, for instance, with wind turbine operating conditions or geometric tolerances, deterministically optimized designs may be inefficient. Therefore, one of the ways to further improve the design of modern wind turbines is to take into account the aforementioned sources of uncertainty in the optimization process, achieving robust configurations with minimal performance sensitivity to factors causing variability. The research work presented in this thesis deals with the development of a novel integrated multidisciplinary design framework for the robust aeroservoelastic design optimization of multi-megawatt horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) rotors, accounting for the stochastic variability related to the input variables. The design system is based on a multidisciplinary analysis module integrating several simulations tools needed to characterize the aeroservoelastic behavior of wind turbines, and determine their economical performance by means of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The reported design framework is portable and modular in that any of its analysis modules can be replaced with counterparts of user-selected fidelity. The presented technology is applied to the design of a 5-MW HAWT rotor to be used at sites of wind power density class from 3 to 7, where the mean wind speed at 50 m above the ground ranges from 6.4 to 11.9 m/s. Assuming the mean wind speed to vary stochastically in such range, the rotor design is optimized by minimizing the mean and standard deviation of the LCOE. Airfoil shapes, spanwise distributions of blade chord and twist, internal structural layup and rotor speed are optimized concurrently, subject to an extensive set of structural and aeroelastic constraints. The effectiveness of the multidisciplinary and robust design framework is demonstrated by showing that the probabilistically designed turbine achieves more favorable probabilistic performance than those of the initial baseline turbine and a turbine designed deterministically.

Balancing the demands of two tasks: an investigation of cognitive-motor dual-tasking in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis

Background: People with relapsing remitting MS (PwRRMS) suffer disproportionate decrements in gait under dual-task conditions, when walking and a cognitive task are combined. There has been much less investigation of the impact of cognitive demands on balance. This study investigated whether: (1) PwRRMS show disproportionate decrements in postural stability under dual-task conditions compared to healthy controls; (2) dual-task decrements are associated with everyday dual-tasking difficulties. In addition, the impact of mood, fatigue and disease severity on dual-tasking were also examined. Methods: 34 PwRRMS and 34 matched controls completed cognitive (digit span) and balance (movement of centre of pressure on a Biosway, on stable and unstable surfaces) tasks under single and dual-task conditions. Everyday dual-tasking was measured using the DTQ. Mood was measured by the HADS. Fatigue was measured via the MFIS. Results: No differences in age, gender, years of education, estimated pre-morbid IQ or baseline digit span between the groups. Compared to healthy controls, PwRRMS showed a significantly greater decrement in postural stability under dual-task conditions on an unstable surface (p=0.007), but not a stable surface (p=0.679). PwRRMS reported higher levels of everyday dual-tasking difficulties (p<0.001). Balance decrement scores were not correlated with everyday dual-tasking difficulties, or with fatigue. Stable surface balance decrement scores were significantly associated with levels of anxiety (rho=0.527, p=0.001) and depression (rho=0.451, p=0.007). Conclusion: RRMS causes difficulties with dual-tasking, impacting balance, particularly under challenging conditions, which may contribute to an increased risk of gait difficulties and falls. The striking relationship between anxiety/depression and dual-task decrement suggests that worry may be contributing to dual-task difficulties.