3 resultados para Risk ratio

em Glasgow Theses Service


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Hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality, and a growing global public health concern, with up to one-third of the world’s population affected. Despite the vast amount of evidence for the benefits of blood pressure (BP) lowering accumulated to date, elevated BP is still the leading risk factor for disease and disability worldwide. It is well established that hypertension and BP are common complex traits, where multiple genetic and environmental factors contribute to BP variation. Furthermore, family and twin studies confirmed the genetic component of BP, with a heritability estimate in the range of 30-50%. Contemporary genomic tools enabling the genotyping of millions of genetic variants across the human genome in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective manner, has transformed hypertension genetics research. This is accompanied by the presence of international consortia that have offered unprecedentedly large sample sizes for genome-wide association studies (GWASs). While GWAS for hypertension and BP have identified more than 60 loci, variants in these loci are associated with modest effects on BP and in aggregate can explain less than 3% of the variance in BP. The aims of this thesis are to study the genetic and environmental factors that influence BP and hypertension traits in the Scottish population, by performing several genetic epidemiological analyses. In the first part of this thesis, it aims to study the burden of hypertension in the Scottish population, along with assessing the familial aggregation and heritialbity of BP and hypertension traits. In the second part, it aims to validate the association of common SNPs reported in the large GWAS and to estimate the variance explained by these variants. In this thesis, comprehensive genetic epidemiology analyses were performed on Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS), one of the largest population-based family design studies. The availability of clinical, biological samples, self-reported information, and medical records for study participants has allowed several assessments to be performed to evaluate factors that influence BP variation in the Scottish population. Of the 20,753 subjects genotyped in the study, a total of 18,470 individuals (grouped into 7,025 extended families) passed the stringent quality control (QC) criteria and were available for all subsequent analysis. Based on the BP-lowering treatment exposure sources, subjects were further classified into two groups. First, subjects with both a self-reported medications (SRMs) history and electronic-prescription records (EPRs; n =12,347); second, all the subjects with at least one medication history source (n =18,470). In the first group, the analysis showed a good concordance between SRMs and EPRs (kappa =71%), indicating that SRMs can be used as a surrogate to assess the exposure to BP-lowering medication in GS:SFHS participants. Although both sources suffer from some limitations, SRMs can be considered the best available source to estimate the drug exposure history in those without EPRs. The prevalence of hypertension was 40.8% with higher prevalence in men (46.3%) compared to women (35.8%). The prevalence of awareness, treatment and controlled hypertension as defined by the study definition were 25.3%, 31.2%, and 54.3%, respectively. These findings are lower than similar reported studies in other populations, with the exception of controlled hypertension prevalence, which can be considered better than other populations. Odds of hypertension were higher in men, obese or overweight individuals, people with a parental history of hypertension, and those living in the most deprived area of Scotland. On the other hand, deprivation was associated with higher odds of treatment, awareness and controlled hypertension, suggesting that people living in the most deprived area may have been receiving better quality of care, or have higher comorbidity levels requiring greater engagement with doctors. These findings highlight the need for further work to improve hypertension management in Scotland. The family design of GS:SFHS has allowed family-based analysis to be performed to assess the familial aggregation and heritability of BP and hypertension traits. The familial correlation of BP traits ranged from 0.07 to 0.20, and from 0.18 to 0.34 for parent-offspring pairs and sibling pairs, respectively. A higher correlation of BP traits was observed among first-degree relatives than other types of relative pairs. A variance-component model that was adjusted for sex, body mass index (BMI), age, and age-squared was used to estimate heritability of BP traits, which ranged from 24% to 32% with pulse pressure (PP) having the lowest estimates. The genetic correlation between BP traits showed a high correlation between systolic (SBP), diastolic (DBP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) (G: 81% to 94%), but lower correlations with PP (G: 22% to 78%). The sibling recurrence risk ratio (λS) for hypertension and treatment were calculated as 1.60 and 2.04 respectively. These findings confirm the genetic components of BP traits in GS:SFHS, and justify further work to investigate genetic determinants of BP. Genetic variants reported in the recent large GWAS of BP traits were selected for genotyping in GS:SFHS using a custom designed TaqMan® OpenArray®. The genotyping plate included 44 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that have been previously reported to be associated with BP or hypertension at genome-wide significance level. A linear mixed model that is adjusted for age, age-squared, sex, and BMI was used to test for the association between the genetic variants and BP traits. Of the 43 variants that passed the QC, 11 variants showed statistically significant association with at least one BP trait. The phenotypic variance explained by these variant for the four BP traits were 1.4%, 1.5%, 1.6%, and 0.8% for SBP, DBP, MAP, and PP, respectively. The association of genetic risk score (GRS) that were constructed from selected variants has showed a positive association with BP level and hypertension prevalence, with an average effect of one mmHg increase with each 0.80 unit increases in the GRS across the different BP traits. The impact of BP-lowering medication on the genetic association study for BP traits has been established, with typical practice of adding a fixed value (i.e. 15/10 mmHg) to the measured BP values to adjust for BP treatment. Using the subset of participants with the two treatment exposure sources (i.e. SRMs and EPRs), the influence of using either source to justify the addition of fixed values in SNP association signal was analysed. BP phenotypes derived from EPRs were considered the true phenotypes, and those derived from SRMs were considered less accurate, with some phenotypic noise. Comparing SNPs association signals between the four BP traits in the two model derived from the different adjustments showed that MAP was the least impacted by the phenotypic noise. This was suggested by identifying the same overlapped significant SNPs for the two models in the case of MAP, while other BP traits had some discrepancy between the two sources

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Background: Depression is a major health problem worldwide and the majority of patients presenting with depressive symptoms are managed in primary care. Current approaches for assessing depressive symptoms in primary care are not accurate in predicting future clinical outcomes, which may potentially lead to over or under treatment. The Allostatic Load (AL) theory suggests that by measuring multi-system biomarker levels as a proxy of measuring multi-system physiological dysregulation, it is possible to identify individuals at risk of having adverse health outcomes at a prodromal stage. Allostatic Index (AI) score, calculated by applying statistical formulations to different multi-system biomarkers, have been associated with depressive symptoms. Aims and Objectives: To test the hypothesis, that a combination of allostatic load (AL) biomarkers will form a predictive algorithm in defining clinically meaningful outcomes in a population of patients presenting with depressive symptoms. The key objectives were: 1. To explore the relationship between various allostatic load biomarkers and prevalence of depressive symptoms in patients, especially in patients diagnosed with three common cardiometabolic diseases (Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), Diabetes and Stroke). 2 To explore whether allostatic load biomarkers predict clinical outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms, especially in patients with three common cardiometabolic diseases (CHD, Diabetes and Stroke). 3 To develop a predictive tool to identify individuals with depressive symptoms at highest risk of adverse clinical outcomes. Methods: Datasets used: ‘DepChron’ was a dataset of 35,537 patients with existing cardiometabolic disease collected as a part of routine clinical practice. ‘Psobid’ was a research data source containing health related information from 666 participants recruited from the general population. The clinical outcomes for 3 both datasets were studied using electronic data linkage to hospital and mortality health records, undertaken by Information Services Division, Scotland. Cross-sectional associations between allostatic load biomarkers calculated at baseline, with clinical severity of depression assessed by a symptom score, were assessed using logistic and linear regression models in both datasets. Cox’s proportional hazards survival analysis models were used to assess the relationship of allostatic load biomarkers at baseline and the risk of adverse physical health outcomes at follow-up, in patients with depressive symptoms. The possibility of interaction between depressive symptoms and allostatic load biomarkers in risk prediction of adverse clinical outcomes was studied using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) test. Finally, the value of constructing a risk scoring scale using patient demographics and allostatic load biomarkers for predicting adverse outcomes in depressed patients was investigated using clinical risk prediction modelling and Area Under Curve (AUC) statistics. Key Results: Literature Review Findings. The literature review showed that twelve blood based peripheral biomarkers were statistically significant in predicting six different clinical outcomes in participants with depressive symptoms. Outcomes related to both mental health (depressive symptoms) and physical health were statistically associated with pre-treatment levels of peripheral biomarkers; however only two studies investigated outcomes related to physical health. Cross-sectional Analysis Findings: In DepChron, dysregulation of individual allostatic biomarkers (mainly cardiometabolic) were found to have a non-linear association with increased probability of co-morbid depressive symptoms (as assessed by Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score HADS-D≥8). A composite AI score constructed using five biomarkers did not lead to any improvement in the observed strength of the association. In Psobid, BMI was found to have a significant cross-sectional association with the probability of depressive symptoms (assessed by General Health Questionnaire GHQ-28≥5). BMI, triglycerides, highly sensitive C - reactive 4 protein (CRP) and High Density Lipoprotein-HDL cholesterol were found to have a significant cross-sectional relationship with the continuous measure of GHQ-28. A composite AI score constructed using 12 biomarkers did not show a significant association with depressive symptoms among Psobid participants. Longitudinal Analysis Findings: In DepChron, three clinical outcomes were studied over four years: all-cause death, all-cause hospital admissions and composite major adverse cardiovascular outcome-MACE (cardiovascular death or admission due to MI/stroke/HF). Presence of depressive symptoms and composite AI score calculated using mainly peripheral cardiometabolic biomarkers was found to have a significant association with all three clinical outcomes over the following four years in DepChron patients. There was no evidence of an interaction between AI score and presence of depressive symptoms in risk prediction of any of the three clinical outcomes. There was a statistically significant interaction noted between SBP and depressive symptoms in risk prediction of major adverse cardiovascular outcome, and also between HbA1c and depressive symptoms in risk prediction of all-cause mortality for patients with diabetes. In Psobid, depressive symptoms (assessed by GHQ-28≥5) did not have a statistically significant association with any of the four outcomes under study at seven years: all cause death, all cause hospital admission, MACE and incidence of new cancer. A composite AI score at baseline had a significant association with the risk of MACE at seven years, after adjusting for confounders. A continuous measure of IL-6 observed at baseline had a significant association with the risk of three clinical outcomes- all-cause mortality, all-cause hospital admissions and major adverse cardiovascular event. Raised total cholesterol at baseline was associated with lower risk of all-cause death at seven years while raised waist hip ratio- WHR at baseline was associated with higher risk of MACE at seven years among Psobid participants. There was no significant interaction between depressive symptoms and peripheral biomarkers (individual or combined) in risk prediction of any of the four clinical outcomes under consideration. Risk Scoring System Development: In the DepChron cohort, a scoring system was constructed based on eight baseline demographic and clinical variables to predict the risk of MACE over four years. The AUC value for the risk scoring system was modest at 56.7% (95% CI 55.6 to 57.5%). In Psobid, it was not possible to perform this analysis due to the low event rate observed for the clinical outcomes. Conclusion: Individual peripheral biomarkers were found to have a cross-sectional association with depressive symptoms both in patients with cardiometabolic disease and middle-aged participants recruited from the general population. AI score calculated with different statistical formulations was of no greater benefit in predicting concurrent depressive symptoms or clinical outcomes at follow-up, over and above its individual constituent biomarkers, in either patient cohort. SBP had a significant interaction with depressive symptoms in predicting cardiovascular events in patients with cardiometabolic disease; HbA1c had a significant interaction with depressive symptoms in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes. Peripheral biomarkers may have a role in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms, especially for those with existing cardiometabolic disease, and this merits further investigation.

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Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of death around the world. Resting heart rate has been shown to be a strong and independent risk marker for adverse cardiovascular events and mortality, and yet its role as a predictor of risk is somewhat overlooked in clinical practice. With the aim of highlighting its prognostic value, the role of resting heart rate as a risk marker for death and other adverse outcomes was further examined in a number of different patient populations. A systematic review of studies that previously assessed the prognostic value of resting heart rate for mortality and other adverse cardiovascular outcomes was presented. New analyses of nine clinical trials were carried out. Both the original and extended Cox model that allows for analysis of time-dependent covariates were used to evaluate and compare the predictive value of baseline and time-updated heart rate measurements for adverse outcomes in the CAPRICORN, EUROPA, PROSPER, PERFORM, BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT populations. Pooled individual patient meta-analyses of the CAPRICORN, EPHESUS, OPTIMAAL and VALIANT trials, and the BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT trials, were also performed. The discrimination and calibration of the models applied were evaluated using Harrell’s C-statistic and likelihood ratio tests, respectively. Finally, following on from the systematic review, meta-analyses of the relation between baseline and time-updated heart rate, and the risk of death from any cause and from cardiovascular causes, were conducted. Both elevated baseline and time-updated resting heart rates were found to be associated with an increase in the risk of mortality and other adverse cardiovascular events in all of the populations analysed. In some cases, elevated time-updated heart rate was associated with risk of events where baseline heart rate was not. Time-updated heart rate also contributed additional information about the risk of certain events despite knowledge of baseline heart rate or previous heart rate measurements. The addition of resting heart rate to the models where resting heart rate was found to be associated with risk of outcome improved both discrimination and calibration, and in general, the models including time-updated heart rate along with baseline or the previous heart rate measurement had the highest and similar C-statistics, and thus the greatest discriminative ability. The meta-analyses demonstrated that a 5bpm higher baseline heart rate was associated with a 7.9% and an 8.0% increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively (both p less than 0.001). Additionally, a 5bpm higher time-updated heart rate (adjusted for baseline heart rate in eight of the ten studies included in the analyses) was associated with a 12.8% (p less than 0.001) and a 10.9% (p less than 0.001) increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively. These findings may motivate health care professionals to routinely assess resting heart rate in order to identify individuals at a higher risk of adverse events. The fact that the addition of time-updated resting heart rate improved the discrimination and calibration of models for certain outcomes, even if only modestly, strengthens the case that it be added to traditional risk models. The findings, however, are of particular importance, and have greater implications for the clinical management of patients with pre-existing disease. An elevated, or increasing heart rate over time could be used as a tool, potentially alongside other established risk scores, to help doctors identify patient deterioration or those at higher risk, who might benefit from more intensive monitoring or treatment re-evaluation. Further exploration of the role of continuous recording of resting heart rate, say, when patients are at home, would be informative. In addition, investigation into the cost-effectiveness and optimal frequency of resting heart rate measurement is required. One of the most vital areas for future research is the definition of an objective cut-off value for the definition of a high resting heart rate.