Quantification of air quality in space and time and its effects on health

The long-term adverse effects on health associated with air pollution exposure can be estimated using either cohort or spatio-temporal ecological designs. In a cohort study, the health status of a cohort of people are assessed periodically over a number of years, and then related to estimated ambient pollution concentrations in the cities in which they live. However, such cohort studies are expensive and time consuming to implement, due to the long-term follow up required for the cohort. Therefore, spatio-temporal ecological studies are also being used to estimate the long-term health effects of air pollution as they are easy to implement due to the routine availability of the required data. Spatio-temporal ecological studies estimate the health impact of air pollution by utilising geographical and temporal contrasts in air pollution and disease risk across $n$ contiguous small-areas, such as census tracts or electoral wards, for multiple time periods. The disease data are counts of the numbers of disease cases occurring in each areal unit and time period, and thus Poisson log-linear models are typically used for the analysis. The linear predictor includes pollutant concentrations and known confounders such as socio-economic deprivation. However, as the disease data typically contain residual spatial or spatio-temporal autocorrelation after the covariate effects have been accounted for, these known covariates are augmented by a set of random effects. One key problem in these studies is estimating spatially representative pollution concentrations in each areal which are typically estimated by applying Kriging to data from a sparse monitoring network, or by computing averages over modelled concentrations (grid level) from an atmospheric dispersion model. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the health effects of long-term exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and Particular matter (PM10) in mainland Scotland, UK. In order to have an initial impression about the air pollution health effects in mainland Scotland, chapter 3 presents a standard epidemiological study using a benchmark method. The remaining main chapters (4, 5, 6) cover the main methodological focus in this thesis which has been threefold: (i) how to better estimate pollution by developing a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant; (ii) how to simultaneously estimate the joint effects of multiple pollutants; and (iii) how to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. Specifically, chapters 4 and 5 are developed to achieve (i), while chapter 6 focuses on (ii) and (iii). In chapter 4, I propose an integrated model for estimating the long-term health effects of NO2, that fuses modelled and measured pollution data to provide improved predictions of areal level pollution concentrations and hence health effects. The air pollution fusion model proposed is a Bayesian space-time linear regression model for relating the measured concentrations to the modelled concentrations for a single pollutant, whilst allowing for additional covariate information such as site type (e.g. roadside, rural, etc) and temperature. However, it is known that some pollutants might be correlated because they may be generated by common processes or be driven by similar factors such as meteorology. The correlation between pollutants can help to predict one pollutant by borrowing strength from the others. Therefore, in chapter 5, I propose a multi-pollutant model which is a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that extends the single pollutant model in chapter 4, which relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant to predict pollution across mainland Scotland. Considering that we are exposed to multiple pollutants simultaneously because the air we breathe contains a complex mixture of particle and gas phase pollutants, the health effects of exposure to multiple pollutants have been investigated in chapter 6. Therefore, this is a natural extension to the single pollutant health effects in chapter 4. Given NO2 and PM10 are highly correlated (multicollinearity issue) in my data, I first propose a temporally-varying linear model to regress one pollutant (e.g. NO2) against another (e.g. PM10) and then use the residuals in the disease model as well as PM10, thus investigating the health effects of exposure to both pollutants simultaneously. Another issue considered in chapter 6 is to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. There are in total four approaches being developed to adjust the exposure uncertainty. Finally, chapter 7 summarises the work contained within this thesis and discusses the implications for future research.

The role of cancer related inflammation, Src family kinases and matrix metalloproteinase 9 in colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the UK with 41,000 new cases diagnosed in 2011. Despite undergoing potentially curative resection, a significant amount of patients develop recurrence. Biomarkers that aid prognostication or identify patients who are suitable for adjuvant treatments are needed. The TNM staging system does a reasonably good job at offering prognostic information to the treating clinician, but it could be better and identifying methods of improving its accuracy are needed. Tumour progression is based on a complex relationship between tumour behaviour and the hosts’ inflammatory responses. Sustained tumour cell proliferation, evading growth suppressors, resisting apoptosis, replicative immortality, sustained angiogenesis, invasion & metastasis, avoiding immune destruction, deregulated cellular energetics, tumour promoting inflammation and genomic instability & mutation have been identified as hallmarks. These hallmarks are malignant behaviors are what makes the cell cancerous and the more extreme the behaviour the more aggressive the cancer the more likely the risk of a poor outcome. There are two primary genomic instability pathways: Microsatellite Instability (MSI) and Chromosomal Instability (CI) also referred to as Microsatellite Stability (MSS). Tumours arising by these pathways have a predilection for specific anatomical, histological and molecular biological features. It is possible that aberrant molecular expression of genes/proteins that promote malignant behaviors may also act as prognostic and predictive biomarkers, which may offer superior prognostic information to classical prognostic features. Cancer related inflammation has been described as a 7th hallmark of cancer. Despite the systemic inflammatory response (SIR) being associated with more aggressive malignant disease, infiltration by immune cells, particularly CD8+ lymphocytes, at the advancing edge of the tumour have been associated with improved outcome and tumour MSI. It remains unknown if the SIR is associated with tumour MSI and this requires further study. The mechanisms by which colorectal cancer cells locally invade through the bowel remain uncertain, but connective tissue degradation by matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) such as MMP-9 have been implicated. MMP-9 has been found in the cancer cells, stromal cells and patient circulation. Although tumoural MMP-9 has been associated with poor survival, reports are conflicting and contain relatively small sample sizes. Furthermore, the influence of high serum MMP-9 on survival remains unknown. Src family kinases (SFKs) have been implicated in many adverse cancer cell behaviors. SFKs comprise 9 family members BLK, C-SRC, FGR, FYN, HCK, LCK, LYN, YES, YRK. C-SRC has been the most investigated of all SFKs, but the role of other SFKs in cellular behaviors and their prognostic value remains largely unknown. The development of Src inhibitors, such as Dasatinib, has identified SFKs as a potential therapeutic target for patients at higher risk of poor survival. Unfortunately, clinical trials so far have not been promising but this may reflect inadequate patient selection and SFKs may act as useful prognostic and predictive biomarkers. In chapter 3, the association between cancer related inflammation, tumour MSI, clinicopathological factors and survival was tested in two independent cohorts. A training cohort consisting of n=182 patients and a validation cohort of n=677 patients. MSI tumours were associated with a raised CRP (p=0.003). Hypoalbuminaemia was independently associated with poor overall survival in TNM stage II cancer (HR 3.04 (95% CI 1.44 – 6.43);p=0.004), poor recurrence free survival in TNM stage III cancer (HR 1.86 (95% 1.03 – 3.36);p=0.040) and poor overall survival in CI colorectal cancer (HR 1.49 (95% CI 1.06 – 2.10);p=0.022). Interestingly, MSI tumours were associated with poor overall survival in TNM stage III cancer (HR 2.20 (95% CI 1.10 – 4.37);p=0.025). In chapter 4, the role of MMP-9 in colorectal cancer progression and survival was examined. MMP-9 in the tissue was assessed using IHC and serum expression quantified using ELISA. Serum MMP-9 was associated with cancer cell expression (Spearman’s Correlation Coefficient (SCC) 0.393, p<0.001)) and stromal expression (SCC 0.319, p=0.002). Serum MMP-9 was associated with poor recurrence-free (HR 3.37 (95% CI 1.20 – 9.48);p=0.021) and overall survival (HR 3.16 (95% CI 1.22 – 8.15);p=0.018), but tumour MMP-9 was not survival or MSI status. In chapter 5, the role of SFK expression and activation in colorectal cancer progression and survival was studied. On PCR analysis, although LYN, C-SRC and YES were the most highly expressed, FGR and HCK had higher expression profiles as tumours progressed. Using IHC, raised cytoplasmic FAK (tyr 861) was independently associated with poor recurrence free survival in all cancers (HR 1.48 (95% CI 1.02 – 2.16);p=0.040) and CI cancers (HR 1.50 (95% CI 1.02 – 2.21);p=0.040). However, raised cytoplasmic HCK (HR 2.04 (95% CI 1.11 – 3.76);p=0.022) was independently associated with poor recurrence-free survival in TNM stage II cancers. T84 and HT29 cell lines were used to examine the cellular effects of Dasatinib. Cell viability was assessed using WST-1 assay and apoptosis assessed using an ELISA cell death detection assay. Dasatinib increased T84 tumour cell apoptosis in a dose dependent manner and resulted in reduced expression of nuclear (p=0.008) and cytoplasmic (p=0.016) FAK (tyr 861) expression and increased nuclear FGR expression (p=0.004). The results of this thesis confirm that colorectal cancer is a complex disease that represents several subtypes of cancer based on molecular biological behaviors. This thesis concentrated on features of the disease related to inflammation in terms of genetic and molecular characterisation. MSI cancers are closely associated with systemic inflammation but despite this observation, they retain their relatively improved survival. MMP-9 is a feature of tissue remodeling during inflammation and is also associated with degradation of connective tissue, advanced T-stage and poor outcome when measured in the serum. The lack of stromal quantification due to TMA use rather than full sections makes the value of tumoural MMP-9 immunoreactivity in the prognostication and its association with MSI unknown and requires further study. Finally, SFK activation was also associated with SIR, however, only cytoplasmic HCK was independently associated with poor survival in patients with TNM stage II disease, the group of patients where identifying a novel biomarker is most needed. There is still some way to go before these biomarkers are translated into clinical practice and future work needs to focus on obtaining a reliable and robust scientific technique with validation in an adequately powered independent cohort.