The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.

Chiroptical spectroscopy of biomolecules using chiral plasmonic nanostructures

This thesis explores the potential of chiral plasmonic nanostructures for the ultrasensitive detection of protein structure. These nanostructures support the generation of fields with enhanced chirality relative to circularly polarised light and are an extremely incisive probe of protein structure. In chapter 4 we introduce a nanopatterned Au film (Templated Plasmonic Substrate, TPS) fabricated using a high through-put injection moulding technique which is a viable alternative to expensive lithographically fabricated nanostructures. The optical and chiroptical properties of TPS nanostructures are found to be highly dependent on the coupling between the electric and magnetic modes of the constituent solid and inverse structures. Significantly, refractive index based measurements of strongly coupled TPSs display a similar sensitivity to protein structure as previous lithographic nanostructures. We subsequently endeavour to improve the sensing properties of TPS nanostructures by developing a high through-put nanoscale chemical functionalisation technique. This process involves a chemical protection/deprotection strategy. The protection step generates a self-assembled monolayer (SAM) of a thermally responsive polymer on the TPS surface which inhibits protein binding. The deprotection step exploits the presence of nanolocalised thermal gradients in the water surrounding the TPS upon irradiation with an 8ns pulsed laser to modify the SAM conformation on surfaces with high net chirality. This allows binding of biomaterial in these regions and subsequently enhances the TPS sensitivity levels. In chapter 6 an alternative method for the detection of protein structure using TPS nanostructures is introduced. This technique relies on mediation of the electric/magnetic coupling in the TPS by the adsorbed protein. This phenomenon is probed through both linear reflectance and nonlinear second harmonic generation (SHG) measurements. Detection of protein structure using this method does not require the presence of fields of enhanced chirality whilst it is also sensitive to a larger array of secondary structure motifs than the measurements in chapters 4 and 5. Finally, a preliminary investigation into the detection of mesoscale biological structure is presented. Sensitivity to the mesoscale helical pitch of insulin amyloid fibrils is displayed through the asymmetry in the circular dichroism (CD) of lithographic gammadions of varying thickness upon adsorption of insulin amyloid fibril spherulites and fragmented fibrils. The proposed model for this sensitivity to the helical pitch relies on the vertical height of the nanostructures relative to this structural property as well as the binding orientation of the fibrils.

Investigating Angiotensin II in cardiac remodelling and the counter-regulatory actions of Angiotensin-(1-9)

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) including, hypertension, coronary heart disease and heart failure are the leading cause of death worldwide. Hypertension, a chronic increase in blood pressure above 140/90 mmHg, is the single main contributor to deaths due to heart disease and stroke. In the heart, hypertension results in adaptive cardiac remodelling, including LV hypertrophy to normalize wall stress and maintain cardiac contractile function. However, chronic increases in BP results in the development of hypertensive heart disease (HHD). HHD describes the maladaptive changes during cardiac remodelling which result in reduced systolic and diastolic function and eventually heart failure. This includes ventricular dilation due to eccentric hypertrophy, cardiac fibrosis which stiffens the ventricular wall and microvascular rarefaction resulting in a decrease in coronary blood flow albeit an increase in energy demand. Chronic activation of the renin-angiotensin-system (RAS) with its effector peptide angiotensin (Ang)II plays a key role in the development of hypertension and the maladaptive changes in HHD. Ang II acts via the angiotensin type 1 receptor (AT1R) to mediate most of its pathological actions during HHD, including stimulation of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy, activation of cardiac fibroblasts and increased collagen deposition. The counter-regulatory axis of the RAS which is centred on the ACE2/Ang-(1-7)/Mas axis has been demonstrated to counteract the pathological actions of Ang II in the heart and vasculature. Ang-(1-7) via the Mas receptor prevents Ang II-induced cardiac hypertrophy and fibrosis and improves cardiac contractile function in animal models of HHD. In contrast, less is known about Ang-(1-9) although evidence has demonstrated that Ang-(1-9) also antagonises Ang II and is anti-hypertrophic and anti-fibrotic in animal models of acute cardiac remodelling. However, so far it is not well documented whether Ang-(1-9) can reverse established cardiac dysfunction and remodelling and whether it is beneficial when administered chronically. Therefore, the main aim of this thesis was to assess the effects of chronic Ang-(1-9) administration on cardiac structure and function in a model of Ang II-induced cardiac remodelling. Furthermore, this thesis aimed to investigate novel pathways contributing to the pathological remodelling in response to Ang II. First, a mouse model of chronic Ang II infusion was established and characterised by comparing the structural and functional effects of the infusion of a low and high dose of Ang II after 6 weeks. Echocardiographic measurements demonstrated that low dose Ang II infusion resulted in a gradual decline in cardiac function while a high dose of Ang II induced acute cardiac contractile dysfunction. Both doses equally induced the development of cardiac hypertrophy and cardiac fibrosis characterised by an increase in the deposition of collagen I and collagen III. Moreover, increases in gene expression of fibrotic and hypertrophic markers could be detected following high dose Ang II infusion over 6 weeks. Following this characterisation, the high dose infusion model was used to assess the effects of Ang-(1-9) on cardiac structural and functional remodelling in established disease. Initially, it was evaluated whether Ang-(1-9) can reverse Ang II-induced cardiac disease by administering Ang-(1-9) for 2-4 weeks following an initial 2 week infusion of a high dose of Ang II to induce cardiac contractile dysfunction. The infusion of Ang-(1-9) for 2 weeks was associated with a significant improvement of LV fractional shortening compared to Ang II infusion. However, after 4 weeks fractional shortening declined to Ang II levels. Despite the transient improvement in cardiac contractile function, Ang-(1-9) did not modulate blood pressure, LV hypertrophy or cardiac fibrosis. To further investigate the direct cardiac effects of Ang-(1-9), cardiac contractile performance in response to Ang-(1-9) was evaluated in the isolated Langendorff-perfused rat heart. Perfusion of Ang-(1-9) in the paced and spontaneously beating rat heart mediated a positive inotropic effect characterised by an increase in LV developed pressure, cardiac contractility and relaxation. This was in contrast to Ang II and Ang-(1-7). Furthermore, the positive inotropic effect to Ang-(1-9) was blocked by the AT1R antagonist losartan and the protein kinase A inhibitor H89. Next, endothelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EndMT) as a novel pathway that may contribute to Ang II-induced cardiac remodelling was assessed in Ang II-infused mice in vivo and in human coronary artery endothelial cells (HCAEC) in vitro. Infusion of Ang II to mice for 2-6 weeks resulted in a significant decrease in myocardial capillary density and this was associated with the occurrence of dual labelling of endothelial cells for endothelial and mesenchymal markers. In vitro stimulation of HCAEC with TGFβ and Ang II revealed that Ang II exacerbated TGF-induced gene expression of mesenchymal markers. This was not correlated with any changes in SMAD2 or ERK1/2 phosphorylation with co-stimulation of TGFβ and Ang II. However, superoxide production was significantly increased in HCAEC stimulated with Ang II but not TGFβ. Finally, the role of Ang II in microvesicle (MV)-mediated cardiomyocyte hypertrophy was investigated. MVs purified from neonatal rat cardiac fibroblasts were found to contain detectable Ang II and this was increased by stimulation of fibroblasts with Ang II. Treatment of cardiomyocytes with MVs derived from Ang II-stimulated fibroblasts induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy which could be blocked by the AT1R antagonist losartan and an inhibitor of MV synthesis and release brefeldin A. Furthermore, Ang II was found to be present in MVs isolated from serum and plasma of Ang II-infused mice and SHRSP and WKY rats. Overall, the findings of this thesis demonstrate for the first time that the actions of Ang-(1-9) in cardiac pathology are dependent on its time of administration and that Ang-(1-9) can reverse Ang II-induced cardiac contractile dysfunction by acting as a positive inotrope. Furthermore, this thesis demonstrates evidence for an involvement of EndMT and MV signalling as novel pathways contributing to Ang II-induced cardiac fibrosis and hypertrophy, respectively. These findings provide incentive to further investigate the therapeutic potential of Ang-(1-9) in the treatment of cardiac contractile dysfunction in heart disease, establish the importance of novel pathways in Ang II-mediated cardiac remodelling and evaluate the significance of the presence of Ang II in plasma-derived MVs.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.