Gestural communication of music structure during solo classical piano performance

The production and perception of music is a multimodal activity involving auditory, visual and conceptual processing, integrating these with prior knowledge and environmental experience. Musicians utilise expressive physical nuances to highlight salient features of the score. The question arises within the literature as to whether performers’ non-technical, non-sound-producing movements may be communicatively meaningful and convey important structural information to audience members and co-performers. In the light of previous performance research (Vines et al., 2006, Wanderley, 2002, Davidson, 1993), and considering findings within co-speech gestural research and auditory and audio-visual neuroscience, this thesis examines the nature of those movements not directly necessary for the production of sound, and their particular influence on audience perception. Within the current research 3D performance analysis is conducted using the Vicon 12- camera system and Nexus data-processing software. Performance gestures are identified as repeated patterns of motion relating to music structure, which not only express phrasing and structural hierarchy but are consistently and accurately interpreted as such by a perceiving audience. Gestural characteristics are analysed across performers and performance style using two Chopin preludes selected for their diverse yet comparable structures (Opus 28:7 and 6). Effects on perceptual judgements of presentation modes (visual-only, auditory-only, audiovisual, full- and point-light) and viewing conditions are explored. This thesis argues that while performance style is highly idiosyncratic, piano performers reliably generate structural gestures through repeated patterns of upper-body movement. The shapes and locations of phrasing motions are identified particular to the sample of performers investigated. Findings demonstrate that despite the personalised nature of the gestures, performers use increased velocity of movements to emphasise musical structure and that observers accurately and consistently locate phrasing junctures where these patterns and variation in motion magnitude, shape and velocity occur. By viewing performance motions in polar (spherical) rather than cartesian coordinate space it is possible to get mathematically closer to the movement generated by each of the nine performers, revealing distinct patterns of motion relating to phrasing structures, regardless of intended performance style. These patterns are highly individualised both to each performer and performed piece. Instantaneous velocity analysis indicates a right-directed bias of performance motion variation at salient structural features within individual performances. Perceptual analyses demonstrate that audience members are able to accurately and effectively detect phrasing structure from performance motion alone. This ability persists even for degraded point-light performances, where all extraneous environmental information has been removed. The relative contributions of audio, visual and audiovisual judgements demonstrate that the visual component of a performance does positively impact on the over- all accuracy of phrasing judgements, indicating that receivers are most effective in their recognition of structural segmentations when they can both see and hear a performance. Observers appear to make use of a rapid online judgement heuristics, adjusting response processes quickly to adapt and perform accurately across multiple modes of presentation and performance style. In line with existent theories within the literature, it is proposed that this processing ability may be related to cognitive and perceptual interpretation of syntax within gestural communication during social interaction and speech. Findings of this research may have future impact on performance pedagogy, computational analysis and performance research, as well as potentially influencing future investigations of the cognitive aspects of musical and gestural understanding.

Forecasting exchange rates in the presence of instabilities

Many exchange rate papers articulate the view that instabilities constitute a major impediment to exchange rate predictability. In this thesis we implement Bayesian and other techniques to account for such instabilities, and examine some of the main obstacles to exchange rate models' predictive ability. We first consider in Chapter 2 a time-varying parameter model in which fluctuations in exchange rates are related to short-term nominal interest rates ensuing from monetary policy rules, such as Taylor rules. Unlike the existing exchange rate studies, the parameters of our Taylor rules are allowed to change over time, in light of the widespread evidence of shifts in fundamentals - for example in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Focusing on quarterly data frequency from the crisis, we detect forecast improvements upon a random walk (RW) benchmark for at least half, and for as many as seven out of 10, of the currencies considered. Results are stronger when we allow the time-varying parameters of the Taylor rules to differ between countries. In Chapter 3 we look closely at the role of time-variation in parameters and other sources of uncertainty in hindering exchange rate models' predictive power. We apply a Bayesian setup that incorporates the notion that the relevant set of exchange rate determinants and their corresponding coefficients, change over time. Using statistical and economic measures of performance, we first find that predictive models which allow for sudden, rather than smooth, changes in the coefficients yield significant forecast improvements and economic gains at horizons beyond 1-month. At shorter horizons, however, our methods fail to forecast better than the RW. And we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients variability to incorporate in the models, as the main factors obstructing predictive ability. Chapter 4 focus on the problem of the time-varying predictive ability of economic fundamentals for exchange rates. It uses bootstrap-based methods to uncover the time-specific conditioning information for predicting fluctuations in exchange rates. Employing several metrics for statistical and economic evaluation of forecasting performance, we find that our approach based on pre-selecting and validating fundamentals across bootstrap replications generates more accurate forecasts than the RW. The approach, known as bumping, robustly reveals parsimonious models with out-of-sample predictive power at 1-month horizon; and outperforms alternative methods, including Bayesian, bagging, and standard forecast combinations. Chapter 5 exploits the predictive content of daily commodity prices for monthly commodity-currency exchange rates. It builds on the idea that the effect of daily commodity price fluctuations on commodity currencies is short-lived, and therefore harder to pin down at low frequencies. Using MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, and Bayesian estimation methods to account for time-variation in predictive ability, the chapter demonstrates the usefulness of suitably exploiting such short-lived effects in improving exchange rate forecasts. It further shows that the usual low-frequency predictors, such as money supplies and interest rates differentials, typically receive little support from the data at monthly frequency, whereas MIDAS models featuring daily commodity prices are highly likely. The chapter also introduces the random walk Metropolis-Hastings technique as a new tool to estimate MIDAS regressions.

The development of planar high-K/III-V p-channel MOSFETs for post-silicon CMOS

Conventional Si complementary-metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) scaling is fast approaching its limits. The extension of the logic device roadmap for future enhancements in transistor performance requires non-Si materials and new device architectures. III-V materials, due to their superior electron transport properties, are well poised to replace Si as the channel material beyond the 10nm technology node to mitigate the performance loss of Si transistors from further reductions in supply voltage to minimise power dissipation in logic circuits. However several key challenges, including a high quality dielectric/III-V gate stack, a low-resistance source/drain (S/D) technology, heterointegration onto a Si platform and a viable III-V p-metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect-transistor (MOSFET), need to be addressed before III-Vs can be employed in CMOS. This Thesis specifically addressed the development and demonstration of planar III-V p-MOSFETs, to complement the n-MOSFET, thereby enabling an all III-V CMOS technology to be realised. This work explored the application of InGaAs and InGaSb material systems as the channel, in conjunction with Al2O3/metal gate stacks, for p-MOSFET development based on the buried-channel flatband device architecture. The body of work undertaken comprised material development, process module development and integration into a robust fabrication flow for the demonstration of p-channel devices. The parameter space in the design of the device layer structure, based around the III-V channel/barrier material options of In_x≥0.53Ga_1-xAs/In_0.52Al_0.48As and In_x≥0.1Ga_1-xSb/AlSb, was systematically examined to improve hole channel transport. A mobility of 433 cm²/Vs, the highest room temperature hole mobility of any InGaAs quantum-well channel reported to date, was obtained for the In_0.85Ga_0.15As (2.1% strain) structure. S/D ohmic contacts were developed based on thermally annealed Au/Zn/Au metallisation and validated using transmission line model test structures. The effects of metallisation thickness, diffusion barriers and de-oxidation conditions were examined. Contacts to InGaSb-channel structures were found to be sensitive to de-oxidation conditions. A fabrication process, based on a lithographically-aligned double ohmic patterning approach, was realised for deep submicron gate-to-source/drain gap (L_side) scaling to minimise the access resistance, thereby mitigating the effects of parasitic S/D series resistance on transistor performance. The developed process yielded gaps as small as 20nm. For high-k integration on GaSb, ex-situ ammonium sulphide ((NH₄)₂S) treatments, in the range 1%-22%, for 10min at 295K were systematically explored for improving the electrical properties of the Al₂O₃/GaSb interface. Electrical and physical characterisation indicated the 1% treatment to be most effective with interface trap densities in the range of 4 - 10×10¹²cm^-2eV^-1 in the lower half of the bandgap. An extended study, comprising additional immersion times at each sulphide concentration, was further undertaken to determine the surface roughness and the etching nature of the treatments on GaSb. A number of p-MOSFETs based on III-V-channels with the most promising hole transport and integration of the developed process modules were successfully demonstrated in this work. Although the non-inverted InGaAs-channel devices showed good current modulation and switch-off characteristics, several aspects of performance were non-ideal; depletion-mode operation, modest drive current (I_d,sat=1.14mA/mm), double peaked transconductance (g_m=1.06mS/mm), high subthreshold swing (SS=301mV/dec) and high on-resistance (R_on=845kΩ.μm). Despite demonstrating substantial improvement in the on-state metrics of I_d,sat (11×), g_m (5.5×) and R_on (5.6×), inverted devices did not switch-off. Scaling gate-to-source/drain gap (L_side) from 1μm down to 70nm improved I_d,sat (72.4mA/mm) by a factor of 3.6 and gm (25.8mS/mm) by a factor of 4.1 in inverted InGaAs-channel devices. Well-controlled current modulation and good saturation behaviour was observed for InGaSb-channel devices. In the on-state In_0.3Ga_0.7Sb-channel (I_d,sat=49.4mA/mm, g_m=12.3mS/mm, R_on=31.7kΩ.μm) and In_0.4Ga_0.6Sb-channel (I_d,sat=38mA/mm, g_m=11.9mS/mm, R_on=73.5kΩ.μm) devices outperformed the InGaAs-channel devices. However the devices could not be switched off. These findings indicate that III-V p-MOSFETs based on InGaSb as opposed to InGaAs channels are more suited as the p-channel option for post-Si CMOS.