Essays on cultural and institutional dynamics in economic development using spatial analysis

This thesis seeks to research patterns of economic growth and development from a number of perspectives often resonated in the growth literature. By addressing themes about history, geography, institutions and culture the thesis is able to bring to bear a wide range of inter-related literatures and methodologies within a single content. Additionally, by targeting different administrative levels in its research design and approach, this thesis is also able to provide a comprehensive treatment of the economic growth dilemma from both cross-national and sub-national perspectives. The three chapters herein discuss economic development from two broad dimensions. The first of these chapters takes on the economic growth inquiry by attempting to incorporate cultural geography within a cross-country formal spatial econometric growth framework. By introducing the global cultural dynamics of languages and ethnic groups as spatial network mechanisms, this chapter is able to distinguish economic growth effects accruing from own-country productive efforts from those accruing from interconnections within a global productive network chain. From this, discussions and deductions about the implications for both developed and developing countries are made as regards potentials for gains and losses from such types and levels of productive integration. The second and third chapters take a different spin to the economic development inquiry. They both focus on economic activity in Africa, tackling the relevant issues from a geo-intersected dimension involving historic regional tribal homelands and modern national and subnational administrative territories. The second chapter specifically focuses on attempting to adopt historical channels to investigate the connection between national institutional quality and economic development in demarcated tribal homelands at the fringes of national African borders. The third chapter on the other hand focuses on looking closer at the effects of demarcations on economic activity. It particularly probes how different kinds of demarcation warranted by two different but very relevant classes of politico-economic players have affected economic activity quite distinguishably within the resulting subnational regions in Africa.

A national coastal erosion risk assessment for Scotland

The geography of Scotland, with a highly undulating hinterland, long and indented coastline, together with a large number of islands, means that much social and economic activity is largely located at the coast. The importance of the coast is further highlighted by the large number of ecosystem services derived from the coast. The threat posed by climate change, particularly current and future sea level rise, is of considerable concern and the associated coastal erosion and coastal flooding has the potential to have a substantial effect on the socioeconomic activity of the whole country. Currently, the knowledge base of coastal erosion is poor, which serves to hinder the current and future management of the coast. This research reported here aimed to establish four key aspects of coastal erosion within Scotland: the physical susceptibility of the coast to erosion; the assets exposed to coastal erosion; the vulnerability of communities to coastal erosion; and the coastal erosion risk to those communities. Coastal erosion susceptibility was modelled here within a GIS, using data for ground elevation, rockhead elevation, wave exposure and proximity to the open coast. Combining these data produced the Underlying Physical Susceptibility Model (UPSM), in the form of a 50 m2 raster of national coverage. The Coastal Erosion Susceptibility Model (CESM) was produced with the addition of sediment supply and coastal defence data, which then moderates the outputs of the UPSM. Asset data for dwellings, key assets, transport infrastructure, historic assets, and natural assets were used along with the UPSM and CESM to assess their degree of exposure to coastal erosion. A Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Model (CEVM) was produced using Experian Mosaic Scotland (a geodemographic classification which identifies 44 different social groups within Scotland) to classify populations based upon 11 vulnerability variables. Dwellings were assigned a CESM and CEVM score in order to establish their coastal erosion risk. This research demonstrated that the issue of coastal erosion will impact on a relatively low number of properties compared to those impacted by flooding (both coastal and fluvial) as many dwellings are already protected by coastal defences. There is therefore, a considerable future liability, and great pressure for coastal defences to be maintained and upgraded in their current form. The use of the CEVM is a novel inclusion within a coastal erosion assessment for Scotland. Use of the CEVM established that coastal erosion risk is not distributed equally amongst the Scottish coastal population and highlighted that risk can be reduced by either reducing exposure or reducing vulnerability. Thus far in Scotland, reducing exposure has been the primary management approach, which has a number of implications with regards social justice. This research identified the existing data gaps that should be addressed by future research in order to further improve coastal management in Scotland. Future research should focus on assessing historical coastal change rates on a national scale, improve modelling of national scale wave exposure, enhance the information held about current coastal defences and, determine the direct and indirect economic cost associated with the loss of different asset types. It is also necessary to clarify the social justice implications of using adaptation approaches to manage coastal erosion as well as establishing a method to communicate the susceptibility, exposure, vulnerability and risk aspects whilst minimising the potential negative impacts (e.g. property blight) of releasing such information.

Pre-colonial institutions and long-run development in Latin America

The present doctoral thesis studies the association between pre-colonial institutions and long-run development in Latin America. The thesis is organised as follows: Chapter 1 places the motivation of the thesis by underlying relevant contributions in the literature on long-run development. I then set out the main objective of the thesis, followed by a brief outline of it. In Chapter 2, I study the effects of pre-colonial institutions on present-day socioeconomic outcomes for Latin America. The main thesis of this chapter is that more advanced pre-colonial institutions relate to better socioeconomic outcomes today - principally, but not only, through their effects on the Amerindian population. I test such hypothesis with a dataset of 324 sub-national administrative units covering all mainland Latin American countries. The extensive range of controls covers factors such as climate, location, natural resources, colonial activities and pre-colonial characteristics - plus country fixed effects. Results strongly support the main thesis. In Chapter 3, I further analyse the association between pre-colonial institutions and present-day economic development in Latin America by using the historical ethnic homelands as my main unit of analysis. The main hypothesis is that ethnic homelands inhabited by more advanced ethnic groups -as measured by their levels of institutional complexity- relate to better economic development today. To track these long-run effects, I construct a new dataset by digitising historiographical maps allowing me to pinpoint the geospatial location of ethnic homelands as of the XVI century. As a result, 375 ethnic homelands are created. I then capture the levels of economic development at the ethnic homeland level by making use of alternative economic measures --satellite light density data. After controlling for country-specific characteristics and applying a large battery of geographical, locational, and historical factors, I found that the effects of pre-colonial institutions relate to a higher light density --as a proxy for economic activity- in ethnic homelands where more advanced ethnic groups lived. In Chapter 4, I explore a mechanism linking the persistence of pre-colonial institutions in Latin America over the long-run: Colonial and post-colonial strategies along with the ethnic political capacity worked in tandem allowing larger Amerindian groups to "support" the new political systems in ways that would benefit their respective ethnic groups as well as the population at large. This mechanism may have allowed the effects of pre-colonial institutions to influence socioeconomic development outcomes up to today. To shed lights on this mechanism, I combine the index of pre-colonial institutions prepared for the second chapter of the present thesis with individual-level survey data on people's attitudes. By controlling for key observable and unobservable country-specific characteristics, the main empirical results show that areas with a history of more advanced pre-colonial institutions increase the probability of individuals supporting present-day political institutions. Finally, in Chapter 5, I summarise the main findings of the thesis, and emphasise the key weaknesses of the study as well as potential avenues for future research.