NETCODE: an XOR-based warning dissemination scheme for vehicular wireless networks

The next generation of vehicles will be equipped with automated Accident Warning Systems (AWSs) capable of warning neighbouring vehicles about hazards that might lead to accidents. The key enabling technology for these systems is the Vehicular Ad-hoc Networks (VANET) but the dynamics of such networks make the crucial timely delivery of warning messages challenging. While most previously attempted implementations have used broadcast-based data dissemination schemes, these do not cope well as data traffic load or network density increases. This problem of sending warning messages in a timely manner is addressed by employing a network coding technique in this thesis. The proposed NETwork COded DissEmination (NETCODE) is a VANET-based AWS responsible for generating and sending warnings to the vehicles on the road. NETCODE offers an XOR-based data dissemination scheme that sends multiple warning in a single transmission and therefore, reduces the total number of transmissions required to send the same number of warnings that broadcast schemes send. Hence, it reduces contention and collisions in the network improving the delivery time of the warnings. The first part of this research (Chapters 3 and 4) asserts that in order to build a warning system, it is needful to ascertain the system requirements, information to be exchanged, and protocols best suited for communication between vehicles. Therefore, a study of these factors along with a review of existing proposals identifying their strength and weakness is carried out. Then an analysis of existing broadcast-based warning is conducted which concludes that although this is the most straightforward scheme, loading can result an effective collapse, resulting in unacceptably long transmission delays. The second part of this research (Chapter 5) proposes the NETCODE design, including the main contribution of this thesis, a pair of encoding and decoding algorithms that makes the use of an XOR-based technique to reduce transmission overheads and thus allows warnings to get delivered in time. The final part of this research (Chapters 6--8) evaluates the performance of the proposed scheme as to how it reduces the number of transmissions in the network in response to growing data traffic load and network density and investigates its capacity to detect potential accidents. The evaluations use a custom-built simulator to model real-world scenarios such as city areas, junctions, roundabouts, motorways and so on. The study shows that the reduction in the number of transmissions helps reduce competition in the network significantly and this allows vehicles to deliver warning messages more rapidly to their neighbours. It also examines the relative performance of NETCODE when handling both sudden event-driven and longer-term periodic messages in diverse scenarios under stress caused by increasing numbers of vehicles and transmissions per vehicle. This work confirms the thesis' primary contention that XOR-based network coding provides a potential solution on which a more efficient AWS data dissemination scheme can be built.

Trajectory prediction uncertainty modelling for Air Traffic Management

The anticipated growth of air traffic worldwide requires enhanced Air Traffic Management (ATM) technologies and procedures to increase the system capacity, efficiency, and resilience, while reducing environmental impact and maintaining operational safety. To deal with these challenges, new automation and information exchange capabilities are being developed through different modernisation initiatives toward a new global operational concept called Trajectory Based Operations (TBO), in which aircraft trajectory information becomes the cornerstone of advanced ATM applications. This transformation will lead to higher levels of system complexity requiring enhanced Decision Support Tools (DST) to aid humans in the decision making processes. These will rely on accurate predicted aircraft trajectories, provided by advanced Trajectory Predictors (TP). The trajectory prediction process is subject to stochastic effects that introduce uncertainty into the predictions. Regardless of the assumptions that define the aircraft motion model underpinning the TP, deviations between predicted and actual trajectories are unavoidable. This thesis proposes an innovative method to characterise the uncertainty associated with a trajectory prediction based on the mathematical theory of Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE). Assuming univariate PCEs of the trajectory prediction inputs, the method describes how to generate multivariate PCEs of the prediction outputs that quantify their associated uncertainty. Arbitrary PCE (aPCE) was chosen because it allows a higher degree of flexibility to model input uncertainty. The obtained polynomial description can be used in subsequent prediction sensitivity analyses thanks to the relationship between polynomial coefficients and Sobol indices. The Sobol indices enable ranking the input parameters according to their influence on trajectory prediction uncertainty. The applicability of the aPCE-based uncertainty quantification detailed herein is analysed through a study case. This study case represents a typical aircraft trajectory prediction problem in ATM, in which uncertain parameters regarding aircraft performance, aircraft intent description, weather forecast, and initial conditions are considered simultaneously. Numerical results are compared to those obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating the advantages of the proposed method. The thesis includes two examples of DSTs (Demand and Capacity Balancing tool, and Arrival Manager) to illustrate the potential benefits of exploiting the proposed uncertainty quantification method.