Quantifying uplift and denudation of a thermally heterogeneous crust: a detailed multi-thermochronometeric study of central west Britain

Topography is often thought as exclusively linked to mountain ranges formed by plates collision. It is now, however, known that apart from compression, uplift and denudation of rocks may be triggered by rifting, like it happens at elevated passive margins, and away from plate boundaries by both intra-plate stress causing reactivation of older structures, and by epeirogenic movements driven by mantle dynamics and initiating long-wavelength uplift. In the Cenozoic, central west Britain and other parts of the North Atlantic margins experienced multiple episodes of rock uplift and denudation that have been variable both at spatial and temporal scales. The origin of topography in central west Britain is enigmatic, and because of its location, it may be related to any of the processes mentioned above. In this study, three low temperature thermochronometers, the apatite fission track (AFT) and apatite and zircon (U-Th-Sm)/He (AHe and ZHe, respectively) methods were used to establish the rock cooling history from 200◦C to 30◦C. The samples were collected from the intrusive rocks in the high elevation, high relief regions of the Lake District (NW England), southern Scotland and northern Wales. AFT ages from the region are youngest (55–70 Ma) in the Lake District and increase northwards into southern Scotland and southwards in north Wales (>200 Ma). AHe and ZHe ages show no systematic pattern; the former range from 50 to 80 Ma and the latter tend to record the post-emplacement cooling of the intrusions (200–400 Ma). The complex, multi-thermochronometric inverse modelling suggests a ubiquitous, rapid Late Cretaceous/early Palaeogene cooling event that is particularly marked in Lake District and Criffell. The timing and rate of cooling in southern Scotland and in northern Wales is poorly resolved as the amount of cooling was less than 60◦C. The Lake District plutons were at >110◦C prior to the early Palaeogene; cooling due to a combined effect of high heat flow, from the heat producing granite batholith, and the blanketing effect of the overlying low conductivity Late Mesozoic limestones and mudstones. Modelling of the heat transfer suggests that this combination produced an elevated geothermal gradient within the sedimentary rocks (50–70◦C/km) that was about two times higher than at the present day. Inverse modelling of the AFT and AHe data taking the crustal structure into consideration suggests that denudation was the highest, 2.0–2.5 km, in the coastal areas of the Lake District and southern Scotland, gradually decreasing to less than 1 km in the northern Southern Uplands and northern Wales. Both the rift-related uplift and the intra-plate compression poorly correlate with the timing, location and spatial distribution of the early Palaeogene denudation. The pattern of early Palaeogene denudation correlates with the thickness of magmatic underplating, if the changes of mean topography, Late Cretaceous water depth and eroded rock density are taken into consideration. However, the uplift due to underplating alone cannot fully justify the total early Palaeogene denudation. The amount that is not ex- plained by underplating is, however, roughly spatially constant across the study area and can be referred to the transient thermal uplift induced by the mantle plume arrival. No other mechanisms are required to explain the observed pattern of denudation. The onset of denudation across the region is not uniform. Denudation started at 70–75 Ma in the central part of the Lake District whereas the coastal areas the rapid erosion appears to have initiated later (65–60 Ma). This is ~10 Ma earlier than the first vol- canic manifestation of the proto-Iceland plume and favours the hypothesis of the short period of plume incubation below the lithosphere before the volcanism. In most of the localities, the rocks had cooled to temperatures lower than 30◦C by the end of the Palaeogene, suggesting that the total Neogene denudation was, at a maximum, several hundreds of metres. Rapid cooling in the last 3 million years is resolved in some places in southern Scotland, where it could be explained by glacial erosion and post-glacial isostatic uplift.

Methods matter: computational modelling in public health policy and planning

This work is aimed at understanding and unifying information on epidemiological modelling methods and how those methods relate to public policy addressing human health, specifically in the context of infectious disease prevention, pandemic planning, and health behaviour change. This thesis employs multiple qualitative and quantitative methods, and presents as a manuscript of several individual, data-driven projects that are combined in a narrative arc. The first chapter introduces the scope and complexity of this interdisciplinary undertaking, describing several topical intersections of importance. The second chapter begins the presentation of original data, and describes in detail two exercises in computational epidemiological modelling pertinent to pandemic influenza planning and policy, and progresses in the next chapter to present additional original data on how the confidence of the public in modelling methodology may have an effect on their planned health behaviour change as recommended in public health policy. The thesis narrative continues in the final data-driven chapter to describe how health policymakers use modelling methods and scientific evidence to inform and construct health policies for the prevention of infectious diseases, and concludes with a narrative chapter that evaluates the breadth of this data and recommends strategies for the optimal use of modelling methodologies when informing public health policy in applied public health scenarios.

The experience of teaching statistics to non-specialist students in Saudi universities

Undoubtedly, statistics has become one of the most important subjects in the modern world, where its applications are ubiquitous. The importance of statistics is not limited to statisticians, but also impacts upon non-statisticians who have to use statistics within their own disciplines. Several studies have indicated that most of the academic departments around the world have realized the importance of statistics to non-specialist students. Therefore, the number of students enrolled in statistics courses has vastly increased, coming from a variety of disciplines. Consequently, research within the scope of statistics education has been able to develop throughout the last few years. One important issue is how statistics is best taught to, and learned by, non-specialist students. This issue is controlled by several factors that affect the learning and teaching of statistics to non-specialist students, such as the use of technology, the role of the English language (especially for those whose first language is not English), the effectiveness of statistics teachers and their approach towards teaching statistics courses, students’ motivation to learn statistics and the relevance of statistics courses to the main subjects of non-specialist students. Several studies, focused on aspects of learning and teaching statistics, have been conducted in different countries around the world, particularly in Western countries. Conversely, the situation in Arab countries, especially in Saudi Arabia, is different; here, there is very little research in this scope, and what there is does not meet the needs of those countries towards the development of learning and teaching statistics to non-specialist students. This research was instituted in order to develop the field of statistics education. The purpose of this mixed methods study was to generate new insights into this subject by investigating how statistics courses are currently taught to non-specialist students in Saudi universities. Hence, this study will contribute towards filling the knowledge gap that exists in Saudi Arabia. This study used multiple data collection approaches, including questionnaire surveys from 1053 non-specialist students who had completed at least one statistics course in different colleges of the universities in Saudi Arabia. These surveys were followed up with qualitative data collected via semi-structured interviews with 16 teachers of statistics from colleges within all six universities where statistics is taught to non-specialist students in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Region. The data from questionnaires included several types, so different techniques were used in analysis. Descriptive statistics were used to identify the demographic characteristics of the participants. The chi-square test was used to determine associations between variables. Based on the main issues that are raised from literature review, the questions (items scales) were grouped and five key groups of questions were obtained which are: 1) Effectiveness of Teachers; 2) English Language; 3) Relevance of Course; 4) Student Engagement; 5) Using Technology. Exploratory data analysis was used to explore these issues in more detail. Furthermore, with the existence of clustering in the data (students within departments within colleges, within universities), multilevel generalized linear models for dichotomous analysis have been used to clarify the effects of clustering at those levels. Factor analysis was conducted confirming the dimension reduction of variables (items scales). The data from teachers’ interviews were analysed on an individual basis. The responses were assigned to one of the eight themes that emerged from within the data: 1) the lack of students’ motivation to learn statistics; 2) students' participation; 3) students’ assessment; 4) the effective use of technology; 5) the level of previous mathematical and statistical skills of non-specialist students; 6) the English language ability of non-specialist students; 7) the need for extra time for teaching and learning statistics; and 8) the role of administrators. All the data from students and teachers indicated that the situation of learning and teaching statistics to non-specialist students in Saudi universities needs to be improved in order to meet the needs of those students. The findings of this study suggested a weakness in the use of statistical software applications in these courses. This study showed that there is lack of application of technology such as statistical software programs in these courses, which would allow non-specialist students to consolidate their knowledge. The results also indicated that English language is considered one of the main challenges in learning and teaching statistics, particularly in institutions where English is not used as the main language. Moreover, the weakness of mathematical skills of students is considered another major challenge. Additionally, the results indicated that there was a need to tailor statistics courses to the needs of non-specialist students based on their main subjects. The findings indicate that statistics teachers need to choose appropriate methods when teaching statistics courses.

Balancing the demands of two tasks: an investigation of cognitive-motor dual-tasking in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis

Background: People with relapsing remitting MS (PwRRMS) suffer disproportionate decrements in gait under dual-task conditions, when walking and a cognitive task are combined. There has been much less investigation of the impact of cognitive demands on balance. This study investigated whether: (1) PwRRMS show disproportionate decrements in postural stability under dual-task conditions compared to healthy controls; (2) dual-task decrements are associated with everyday dual-tasking difficulties. In addition, the impact of mood, fatigue and disease severity on dual-tasking were also examined. Methods: 34 PwRRMS and 34 matched controls completed cognitive (digit span) and balance (movement of centre of pressure on a Biosway, on stable and unstable surfaces) tasks under single and dual-task conditions. Everyday dual-tasking was measured using the DTQ. Mood was measured by the HADS. Fatigue was measured via the MFIS. Results: No differences in age, gender, years of education, estimated pre-morbid IQ or baseline digit span between the groups. Compared to healthy controls, PwRRMS showed a significantly greater decrement in postural stability under dual-task conditions on an unstable surface (p=0.007), but not a stable surface (p=0.679). PwRRMS reported higher levels of everyday dual-tasking difficulties (p<0.001). Balance decrement scores were not correlated with everyday dual-tasking difficulties, or with fatigue. Stable surface balance decrement scores were significantly associated with levels of anxiety (rho=0.527, p=0.001) and depression (rho=0.451, p=0.007). Conclusion: RRMS causes difficulties with dual-tasking, impacting balance, particularly under challenging conditions, which may contribute to an increased risk of gait difficulties and falls. The striking relationship between anxiety/depression and dual-task decrement suggests that worry may be contributing to dual-task difficulties.