A national coastal erosion risk assessment for Scotland

The geography of Scotland, with a highly undulating hinterland, long and indented coastline, together with a large number of islands, means that much social and economic activity is largely located at the coast. The importance of the coast is further highlighted by the large number of ecosystem services derived from the coast. The threat posed by climate change, particularly current and future sea level rise, is of considerable concern and the associated coastal erosion and coastal flooding has the potential to have a substantial effect on the socioeconomic activity of the whole country. Currently, the knowledge base of coastal erosion is poor, which serves to hinder the current and future management of the coast. This research reported here aimed to establish four key aspects of coastal erosion within Scotland: the physical susceptibility of the coast to erosion; the assets exposed to coastal erosion; the vulnerability of communities to coastal erosion; and the coastal erosion risk to those communities. Coastal erosion susceptibility was modelled here within a GIS, using data for ground elevation, rockhead elevation, wave exposure and proximity to the open coast. Combining these data produced the Underlying Physical Susceptibility Model (UPSM), in the form of a 50 m2 raster of national coverage. The Coastal Erosion Susceptibility Model (CESM) was produced with the addition of sediment supply and coastal defence data, which then moderates the outputs of the UPSM. Asset data for dwellings, key assets, transport infrastructure, historic assets, and natural assets were used along with the UPSM and CESM to assess their degree of exposure to coastal erosion. A Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Model (CEVM) was produced using Experian Mosaic Scotland (a geodemographic classification which identifies 44 different social groups within Scotland) to classify populations based upon 11 vulnerability variables. Dwellings were assigned a CESM and CEVM score in order to establish their coastal erosion risk. This research demonstrated that the issue of coastal erosion will impact on a relatively low number of properties compared to those impacted by flooding (both coastal and fluvial) as many dwellings are already protected by coastal defences. There is therefore, a considerable future liability, and great pressure for coastal defences to be maintained and upgraded in their current form. The use of the CEVM is a novel inclusion within a coastal erosion assessment for Scotland. Use of the CEVM established that coastal erosion risk is not distributed equally amongst the Scottish coastal population and highlighted that risk can be reduced by either reducing exposure or reducing vulnerability. Thus far in Scotland, reducing exposure has been the primary management approach, which has a number of implications with regards social justice. This research identified the existing data gaps that should be addressed by future research in order to further improve coastal management in Scotland. Future research should focus on assessing historical coastal change rates on a national scale, improve modelling of national scale wave exposure, enhance the information held about current coastal defences and, determine the direct and indirect economic cost associated with the loss of different asset types. It is also necessary to clarify the social justice implications of using adaptation approaches to manage coastal erosion as well as establishing a method to communicate the susceptibility, exposure, vulnerability and risk aspects whilst minimising the potential negative impacts (e.g. property blight) of releasing such information.

Understanding and validating accelerometry as a measure of physical activity in children with intellectual disabilities

Background Physical activity in children with intellectual disabilities is a neglected area of study, which is most apparent in relation to physical activity measurement research. Although objective measures, specifically accelerometers, are widely used in research involving children with intellectual disabilities, existing research is based on measurement methods and data interpretation techniques generalised from typically developing children. However, due to physiological and biomechanical differences between these populations, questions have been raised in the existing literature on the validity of generalising data interpretation techniques from typically developing children to children with intellectual disabilities. Therefore, there is a need to conduct population-specific measurement research for children with intellectual disabilities and develop valid methods to interpret accelerometer data, which will increase our understanding of physical activity in this population. Methods Study 1: A systematic review was initially conducted to increase the knowledge base on how accelerometers were used within existing physical activity research involving children with intellectual disabilities and to identify important areas for future research. A systematic search strategy was used to identify relevant articles which used accelerometry-based monitors to quantify activity levels in ambulatory children with intellectual disabilities. Based on best practice guidelines, a novel form was developed to extract data based on 17 research components of accelerometer use. Accelerometer use in relation to best practice guidelines was calculated using percentage scores on a study-by-study and component-by-component basis. Study 2: To investigate the effect of data interpretation methods on the estimation of physical activity intensity in children with intellectual disabilities, a secondary data analysis was conducted. Nine existing sets of child-specific ActiGraph intensity cut points were applied to accelerometer data collected from 10 children with intellectual disabilities during an activity session. Four one-way repeated measures ANOVAs were used to examine differences in estimated time spent in sedentary, moderate, vigorous, and moderate to vigorous intensity activity. Post-hoc pairwise comparisons with Bonferroni adjustments were additionally used to identify where significant differences occurred. Study 3: The feasibility on a laboratory-based calibration protocol developed for typically developing children was investigated in children with intellectual disabilities. Specifically, the feasibility of activities, measurements, and recruitment was investigated. Five children with intellectual disabilities and five typically developing children participated in 14 treadmill-based and free-living activities. In addition, resting energy expenditure was measured and a treadmill-based graded exercise test was used to assess cardiorespiratory fitness. Breath-by-breath respiratory gas exchange and accelerometry were continually measured during all activities. Feasibility was assessed using observations, activity completion rates, and respiratory data. Study 4: Thirty-six children with intellectual disabilities participated in a semi-structured school-based physical activity session to calibrate accelerometry for the estimation of physical activity intensity. Participants wore a hip-mounted ActiGraph wGT3X+ accelerometer, with direct observation (SOFIT) used as the criterion measure. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were conducted to determine the optimal accelerometer cut points for sedentary, moderate, and vigorous intensity physical activity. Study 5: To cross-validate the calibrated cut points and compare classification accuracy with existing cut points developed in typically developing children, a sub-sample of 14 children with intellectual disabilities who participated in the school-based sessions, as described in Study 4, were included in this study. To examine the validity, classification agreement was investigated between the criterion measure of SOFIT and each set of cut points using sensitivity, specificity, total agreement, and Cohen’s kappa scores. Results Study 1: Ten full text articles were included in this review. The percentage of review criteria met ranged from 12%−47%. Various methods of accelerometer use were reported, with most use decisions not based on population-specific research. A lack of measurement research, specifically the calibration/validation of accelerometers for children with intellectual disabilities, is limiting the ability of researchers to make appropriate and valid accelerometer use decisions. Study 2: The choice of cut points had significant and clinically meaningful effects on the estimation of physical activity intensity and sedentary behaviour. For the 71-minute session, estimations for time spent in each intensity between cut points ranged from: sedentary = 9.50 (± 4.97) to 31.90 (± 6.77) minutes; moderate = 8.10 (± 4.07) to 40.40 (± 5.74) minutes; vigorous = 0.00 (± .00) to 17.40 (± 6.54) minutes; and moderate to vigorous = 8.80 (± 4.64) to 46.50 (± 6.02) minutes. Study 3: All typically developing participants and one participant with intellectual disabilities completed the protocol. No participant met the maximal criteria for the graded exercise test or attained a steady state during the resting measurements. Limitations were identified with the usability of respiratory gas exchange equipment and the validity of measurements. The school-based recruitment strategy was not effective, with a participation rate of 6%. Therefore, a laboratory-based calibration protocol was not feasible for children with intellectual disabilities. Study 4: The optimal vertical axis cut points (cpm) were ≤ 507 (sedentary), 1008−2300 (moderate), and ≥ 2301 (vigorous). Sensitivity scores ranged from 81−88%, specificity 81−85%, and AUC .87−.94. The optimal vector magnitude cut points (cpm) were ≤ 1863 (sedentary), ≥ 2610 (moderate) and ≥ 4215 (vigorous). Sensitivity scores ranged from 80−86%, specificity 77−82%, and AUC .86−.92. Therefore, the vertical axis cut points provide a higher level of accuracy in comparison to the vector magnitude cut points. Study 5: Substantial to excellent classification agreement was found for the calibrated cut points. The calibrated sedentary cut point (ĸ =.66) provided comparable classification agreement with existing cut points (ĸ =.55−.67). However, the existing moderate and vigorous cut points demonstrated low sensitivity (0.33−33.33% and 1.33−53.00%, respectively) and disproportionately high specificity (75.44−.98.12% and 94.61−100.00%, respectively), indicating that cut points developed in typically developing children are too high to accurately classify physical activity intensity in children with intellectual disabilities. Conclusions The studies reported in this thesis are the first to calibrate and validate accelerometry for the estimation of physical activity intensity in children with intellectual disabilities. In comparison with typically developing children, children with intellectual disabilities require lower cut points for the classification of moderate and vigorous intensity activity. Therefore, generalising existing cut points to children with intellectual disabilities will underestimate physical activity and introduce systematic measurement error, which could be a contributing factor to the low levels of physical activity reported for children with intellectual disabilities in previous research.

An ontology for risk management of digital collections

Maintaining accessibility to and understanding of digital information over time is a complex challenge that often requires contributions and interventions from a variety of individuals and organizations. The processes of preservation planning and evaluation are fundamentally implicit and share similar complexity. Both demand comprehensive knowledge and understanding of every aspect of to-be-preserved content and the contexts within which preservation is undertaken. Consequently, means are required for the identification, documentation and association of those properties of data, representation and management mechanisms that in combination lend value, facilitate interaction and influence the preservation process. These properties may be almost limitless in terms of diversity, but are integral to the establishment of classes of risk exposure, and the planning and deployment of appropriate preservation strategies. We explore several research objectives within the course of this thesis. Our main objective is the conception of an ontology for risk management of digital collections. Incorporated within this are our aims to survey the contexts within which preservation has been undertaken successfully, the development of an appropriate methodology for risk management, the evaluation of existing preservation evaluation approaches and metrics, the structuring of best practice knowledge and lastly the demonstration of a range of tools that utilise our findings. We describe a mixed methodology that uses interview and survey, extensive content analysis, practical case study and iterative software and ontology development. We build on a robust foundation, the development of the Digital Repository Audit Method Based on Risk Assessment. We summarise the extent of the challenge facing the digital preservation community (and by extension users and creators of digital materials from many disciplines and operational contexts) and present the case for a comprehensive and extensible knowledge base of best practice. These challenges are manifested in the scale of data growth, the increasing complexity and the increasing onus on communities with no formal training to offer assurances of data management and sustainability. These collectively imply a challenge that demands an intuitive and adaptable means of evaluating digital preservation efforts. The need for individuals and organisations to validate the legitimacy of their own efforts is particularly prioritised. We introduce our approach, based on risk management. Risk is an expression of the likelihood of a negative outcome, and an expression of the impact of such an occurrence. We describe how risk management may be considered synonymous with preservation activity, a persistent effort to negate the dangers posed to information availability, usability and sustainability. Risk can be characterised according to associated goals, activities, responsibilities and policies in terms of both their manifestation and mitigation. They have the capacity to be deconstructed into their atomic units and responsibility for their resolution delegated appropriately. We continue to describe how the manifestation of risks typically spans an entire organisational environment, and as the focus of our analysis risk safeguards against omissions that may occur when pursuing functional, departmental or role-based assessment. We discuss the importance of relating risk-factors, through the risks themselves or associated system elements. To do so will yield the preservation best-practice knowledge base that is conspicuously lacking within the international digital preservation community. We present as research outcomes an encapsulation of preservation practice (and explicitly defined best practice) as a series of case studies, in turn distilled into atomic, related information elements. We conduct our analyses in the formal evaluation of memory institutions in the UK, US and continental Europe. Furthermore we showcase a series of applications that use the fruits of this research as their intellectual foundation. Finally we document our results in a range of technical reports and conference and journal articles. We present evidence of preservation approaches and infrastructures from a series of case studies conducted in a range of international preservation environments. We then aggregate this into a linked data structure entitled PORRO, an ontology relating preservation repository, object and risk characteristics, intended to support preservation decision making and evaluation. The methodology leading to this ontology is outlined, and lessons are exposed by revisiting legacy studies and exposing the resource and associated applications to evaluation by the digital preservation community.