Pre-colonial institutions and long-run development in Latin America

The present doctoral thesis studies the association between pre-colonial institutions and long-run development in Latin America. The thesis is organised as follows: Chapter 1 places the motivation of the thesis by underlying relevant contributions in the literature on long-run development. I then set out the main objective of the thesis, followed by a brief outline of it. In Chapter 2, I study the effects of pre-colonial institutions on present-day socioeconomic outcomes for Latin America. The main thesis of this chapter is that more advanced pre-colonial institutions relate to better socioeconomic outcomes today - principally, but not only, through their effects on the Amerindian population. I test such hypothesis with a dataset of 324 sub-national administrative units covering all mainland Latin American countries. The extensive range of controls covers factors such as climate, location, natural resources, colonial activities and pre-colonial characteristics - plus country fixed effects. Results strongly support the main thesis. In Chapter 3, I further analyse the association between pre-colonial institutions and present-day economic development in Latin America by using the historical ethnic homelands as my main unit of analysis. The main hypothesis is that ethnic homelands inhabited by more advanced ethnic groups -as measured by their levels of institutional complexity- relate to better economic development today. To track these long-run effects, I construct a new dataset by digitising historiographical maps allowing me to pinpoint the geospatial location of ethnic homelands as of the XVI century. As a result, 375 ethnic homelands are created. I then capture the levels of economic development at the ethnic homeland level by making use of alternative economic measures --satellite light density data. After controlling for country-specific characteristics and applying a large battery of geographical, locational, and historical factors, I found that the effects of pre-colonial institutions relate to a higher light density --as a proxy for economic activity- in ethnic homelands where more advanced ethnic groups lived. In Chapter 4, I explore a mechanism linking the persistence of pre-colonial institutions in Latin America over the long-run: Colonial and post-colonial strategies along with the ethnic political capacity worked in tandem allowing larger Amerindian groups to "support" the new political systems in ways that would benefit their respective ethnic groups as well as the population at large. This mechanism may have allowed the effects of pre-colonial institutions to influence socioeconomic development outcomes up to today. To shed lights on this mechanism, I combine the index of pre-colonial institutions prepared for the second chapter of the present thesis with individual-level survey data on people's attitudes. By controlling for key observable and unobservable country-specific characteristics, the main empirical results show that areas with a history of more advanced pre-colonial institutions increase the probability of individuals supporting present-day political institutions. Finally, in Chapter 5, I summarise the main findings of the thesis, and emphasise the key weaknesses of the study as well as potential avenues for future research.

A study on the effect of functional distribution of income on aggregate demand

In this thesis, we study the causal relationship between functional distribution of income and economic growth. In particular, we focus on some of the aspects that might alter the effect of the profit share on growth. After a brief introduction and literature review, the empirical contributions will be presented in Chapters 3,4 and 5. Chapter 3 analyses the effect of a contemporaneous decrease in the wage share among countries that are major trade partners. Falling wage share and wage moderation are a global phenomenon which are hardly opposed by governments. This is because lower wages are associated with lower export prices and, therefore, have a positive effect on net-exports. There is, however, a fallacy of composition problem: not all countries can improve their balance of payments contemporaneously. Studying the country members of the North America Free Trade Agreement, we find that the effect on export of a contemporaneous decrease in the wage share in Mexico, Canada and the United States, is negative in all countries. In other words, the competitive advantage that each country gains because of a reduction in its wage share (to which is associated a decrease in export prices), is offset by a contemporaneous increase in competitiveness in the other two countries. Moreover, we find that NAFTA is overall wage-led: the profit share has a negative effect on aggregate demand. Chapter 4 tests whether it is possible that the effect of the profit share on growth is different in the long run and in the short run. Following Blecker (2014) our hypothesis is that in the short run the growth regime is less wage-led than it is in the long run. The results of our empirical investigation support this hypothesis, at least for the United States over the period 1950-2014. The effect of wages on consumption increases more than proportionally compared to the effect of profits on consumption from the short to the long run. Moreover, consumer debt seem to have only a short-run effect on consumption indicating that in the long run, when debt has to be repaid, consumption depends more on the level of income and on how it is distributed. Regarding investment, the effect of capacity utilization is always larger than the effect of the profit share and that the difference between the two effects is higher in the long run than in the short run. This confirms the hypothesis that in the long run, unless there is an increase in demand, it is likely that firms are not going to increase investments even in the presence of high profits. In addition, the rentier share of profits – that comprises dividends and interest payments – has a long-run negative effect on investment. In the long run rentiers divert firms’ profits from investment and, therefore, it weakens the effect of profits on investment. Finally, Chapter 5 studies the possibility of structural breaks in the relationship between functional distribution of income and growth. We argue that, from the 1980s, financialization and the European exchange rate agreements weakened the positive effect of the profit share on growth in Italy. The growth regime is therefore becoming less profit-led and more wage-led. Our results confirm this hypothesis and also shed light on the concept of cooperative and conflictual regimes as defined by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990).

Empirical studies on share issuance and repurchase decisions

Financial constraints influence corporate policies of firms, including both investment decisions and external financing policies. The relevance of this phenomenon has become more pronounced during and after the recent financial crisis in 2007/2008. In addition to raising costs of external financing, the effects of financial crisis limited the availability of external financing which had implications for employment, investment, sale of assets, and tech spending. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects of financial constraints on share issuance and repurchases decisions. Financial constraints comprise both internal constraints reflecting the demand for external financing and external financial constraints that relate to the supply of external financing. The study also examines both operating performance and stock market reactions associated with equity issuance methods. The first empirical chapter explores the simultaneous effects of financial constraints and market timing on share issuance decisions. Internal financing constraints limit firms’ ability to issue overvalued equity. On the other hand, financial crisis and low market liquidity (external financial constraints) restrict availability of equity financing and consequently increase the costs of external financing. Therefore, the study explores the extent to which internal and external financing constraints limit market timing of equity issues. This study finds that financial constraints play a significant role in whether firms time their equity issues when the shares are overvalued. The conclusion is that financially constrained firms issue overvalued equity when the external equity market or the general economic conditions are favourable. During recessionary periods, costs of external finance increase such that financially constrained firms are less likely to issue overvalued equity. Only unconstrained firms are more likely to issue overvalued equity even during crisis. Similarly, small firms that need cash flows to finance growth projects are less likely to access external equity financing during period of significant economic recessions. Moreover, constrained firms have low average stock returns compared to unconstrained firms, especially when they issue overvalued equity. The second chapter examines the operating performance and stock returns associated with equity issuance methods. Firms in the UK can issue equity through rights issues, open offers, and private placement. This study argues that alternative equity issuance methods are associated with a different level of operating performance and long-term stock returns. Firms using private placement are associated with poor operating performance. However, rights issues are found empirically to be associated with higher operating performance and less negative long-term stock returns after issuance in comparison to counterpart firms that issue private placements and open offers. Thus, rights issuing firms perform better than open offers and private placement because the favourable operating performance at the time of issuance generates subsequent positive long-run stock price response. Right issuing firms are of better quality and outperform firms that adopt open offers and private placement. In the third empirical chapter, the study explores the levered share repurchase of internally financially unconstrained firms. Unconstrained firms are expected to repurchase their shares using internal funds rather than through external borrowings. However, evidence shows that levered share repurchases are common among unconstrained firms. These firms display this repurchase behaviour when they have bond ratings or investment grade ratings that allow them to obtain cheap external debt financing. It is found that internally financially unconstrained firms borrow to finance their share repurchase when they invest more. Levered repurchase firms are associated with less positive abnormal returns than unlevered repurchase firms. For the levered repurchase sample, high investing firms are associated with more positive long-run abnormal stock returns than low investing firms. It appears the market underreact to the levered repurchase in the short-run regardless of the level of investments. These findings indicate that market reactions reflect both undervaluation and signaling hypotheses of positive information associated with share repurchase. As the firms undertake capital investments, they generate future cash flows, limit the effects of leverage on financial distress and ultimately reduce the risk of the equity capital.