A national coastal erosion risk assessment for Scotland

The geography of Scotland, with a highly undulating hinterland, long and indented coastline, together with a large number of islands, means that much social and economic activity is largely located at the coast. The importance of the coast is further highlighted by the large number of ecosystem services derived from the coast. The threat posed by climate change, particularly current and future sea level rise, is of considerable concern and the associated coastal erosion and coastal flooding has the potential to have a substantial effect on the socioeconomic activity of the whole country. Currently, the knowledge base of coastal erosion is poor, which serves to hinder the current and future management of the coast. This research reported here aimed to establish four key aspects of coastal erosion within Scotland: the physical susceptibility of the coast to erosion; the assets exposed to coastal erosion; the vulnerability of communities to coastal erosion; and the coastal erosion risk to those communities. Coastal erosion susceptibility was modelled here within a GIS, using data for ground elevation, rockhead elevation, wave exposure and proximity to the open coast. Combining these data produced the Underlying Physical Susceptibility Model (UPSM), in the form of a 50 m2 raster of national coverage. The Coastal Erosion Susceptibility Model (CESM) was produced with the addition of sediment supply and coastal defence data, which then moderates the outputs of the UPSM. Asset data for dwellings, key assets, transport infrastructure, historic assets, and natural assets were used along with the UPSM and CESM to assess their degree of exposure to coastal erosion. A Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Model (CEVM) was produced using Experian Mosaic Scotland (a geodemographic classification which identifies 44 different social groups within Scotland) to classify populations based upon 11 vulnerability variables. Dwellings were assigned a CESM and CEVM score in order to establish their coastal erosion risk. This research demonstrated that the issue of coastal erosion will impact on a relatively low number of properties compared to those impacted by flooding (both coastal and fluvial) as many dwellings are already protected by coastal defences. There is therefore, a considerable future liability, and great pressure for coastal defences to be maintained and upgraded in their current form. The use of the CEVM is a novel inclusion within a coastal erosion assessment for Scotland. Use of the CEVM established that coastal erosion risk is not distributed equally amongst the Scottish coastal population and highlighted that risk can be reduced by either reducing exposure or reducing vulnerability. Thus far in Scotland, reducing exposure has been the primary management approach, which has a number of implications with regards social justice. This research identified the existing data gaps that should be addressed by future research in order to further improve coastal management in Scotland. Future research should focus on assessing historical coastal change rates on a national scale, improve modelling of national scale wave exposure, enhance the information held about current coastal defences and, determine the direct and indirect economic cost associated with the loss of different asset types. It is also necessary to clarify the social justice implications of using adaptation approaches to manage coastal erosion as well as establishing a method to communicate the susceptibility, exposure, vulnerability and risk aspects whilst minimising the potential negative impacts (e.g. property blight) of releasing such information.

Conservation value, biodiversity value and methods of assessment in regenerating and human disturbed tropical forest

Although the value of primary forests for biodiversity conservation is well known, the potential biodiversity and conservation value of regenerating forests remains controversial. Many factors likely contribute to this, including: 1. the variable ages of regenerating forests being studied (often dominated by relatively young regenerating forests); 2. the potential for confounding on-going human disturbance (such as logging and hunting); 3. the relatively low number of multi-taxa studies; 4. the lack of studies that directly compare different historic disturbances within the same location; 5. contrasting patterns from different survey methodologies and the paucity of knowledge on the impacts across different vertical levels of rainforest biodiversity (often due to a lack of suitable methodologies available to assess them). We also know relatively little as to how biodiversity is affected by major current impacts, such as unmarked rainforest roads, which contribute to this degradation of habitat and fragmentation. This thesis explores the potential biodiversity value of regenerating rainforests under the best of scenarios and seeks to understand more about the impact of current human disturbance to biodiversity; data comes from case studies from the Manu and Sumaco Biosphere Reserves in the Western Amazon. Specifically, I compare overall biodiversity and conservation value of a best case regenerating rainforest site with a selection of well-studied primary forest sites and with predicted species lists for the region; including a focus on species of key conservation concern. I then investigate the biodiversity of the same study site in reference to different types of historic anthropogenic disturbance. Following this I investigate the impacts to biodiversity from an unmarked rainforest road. In order to understand more about the differential effects of habitat disturbance on arboreal diversity I directly assess how patterns of butterfly biodiversity vary between three vertical strata. Although assessments within the canopy have been made for birds, invertebrates and bats, very few studies have successfully targeted arboreal mammals. I therefore investigate the potential of camera traps for inventorying arboreal mammal species in comparison with traditional methodologies. Finally, in order to investigate the possibility that different survey methodologies might identify different biodiversity patterns in habitat disturbance assessments, I investigate whether two different but commonly used survey methodologies used to assess amphibians, indicate the same or different responses of amphibian biodiversity to historic habitat change by people. The regenerating rainforest study site contained high levels of species richness; both in terms of alpha diversity found in nearby primary forest areas (87% ±3.5) and in terms of predicted primary forest diversity from the region (83% ±6.7). This included 89% (39 out of 44) of the species of high conservation concern predicted for the Manu region. Faunal species richness in once completely cleared regenerating forest was on average 13% (±9.8) lower than historically selectively logged forest. The presence of the small unmarked road significantly altered levels of faunal biodiversity for three taxa, up to and potentially beyond 350m into the forest interior. Most notably, the impact on biodiversity extended to at least 32% of the whole reserve area. The assessment of butterflies across strata showed that different vertical zones within the same rainforest responded differently in areas with different historic human disturbance. A comparison between forest regenerating after selective logging and forest regenerating after complete clearance, showed that there was a 17% greater reduction in canopy species richness in the historically cleared forest compared with the terrestrial community. Comparing arboreal camera traps with traditional ground-based techniques suggests that camera traps are an effective tool for inventorying secretive arboreal rainforest mammal communities and detect a higher number of cryptic species. Finally, the two survey methodologies used to assess amphibian communities identified contrasting biodiversity patterns in a human modified rainforest; one indicated biodiversity differences between forests with different human disturbance histories, whereas the other suggested no differences between forest disturbance types. Overall, in this thesis I find that the conservation and biodiversity value of regenerating and human disturbed tropical forest can potentially contribute to rainforest biodiversity conservation, particularly in the best of circumstances. I also highlight the importance of utilising appropriate study methodologies that to investigate these three-dimensional habitats, and contribute to the development of methodologies to do so. However, care should be taken when using different survey methodologies, which can provide contrasting biodiversity patterns in response to human disturbance.