The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.

Effect of vitamin D supplementation on bone status, glucose homeostasis and immune function in children with vitamin D deficiency

Background: Between 1961-1971 vitamin D deficiency was recognized as a public health issue in the UK, because of the lack of effective sunlight and the population mix [1, 2]. In recent years, health care professionals have cited evidence suggesting a re-emergence of the vitamin D deficiency linked to a number of health consequences as a concern [3-6]. Evidence from observational studies has linked low vitamin D status with impairment in glucose homeostasis and immune dysfunction [7-9]. However, interventional studies, particularly those focused on paediatric populations, have been limited and inconsistent. There is a need for detailed studies, to clarify the therapeutic benefits of vitamin D in these important clinical areas. Objective: The aims of this PhD thesis were two-fold. Firstly, to perform preliminary work assessing the association between vitamin D deficiency and bone status, glucose homeostasis and immune function, and to explore any changes in these parameters following short term vitamin D3 replacement therapy. Secondly, to assess the effectiveness of an electronic surveillance system (ScotPSU) as a tool to determine the current incidence of hospital-based presentation of childhood vitamin D deficiency in Scotland. Methods: Active surveillance was performed for a period of two years as a part of an electronic web-based surveillance programme performed by the Scottish Paediatric Surveillance Unit (ScotPSU). The validity of the system was assessed by identifying cases with profound vitamin D deficiency (in Glasgow and Edinburgh) from the regional laboratory. All clinical details were checked against those identified using the surveillance system. Thirty-seven children aged 3 months to 10 years, who had been diagnosed with vitamin D deficiency, were recruited for the bone, glucose and immunity studies over a period of 24 months. Twenty-five samples were analysed for the glucose and bone studies; of these, 18 samples were further analysed for immune study. Treatment consisted of six weeks taking 5000 IU units cholecalciferol orally once a day. At baseline and after completion of treatment, 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), parathyroid hormone (PTH), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), collagen type 1 cross-linked C-telopeptide (CTX), osteocalcin (OCN), calcium, phosphate, insulin, glucose, homeostasis model assessment index, estimated insulin resistance (HOMA IR), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG), lipids profiles, T helper 1 (Th1) cytokines (interleukin-2 ( IL-2), tumor necrosis factors-alpha (TNF-α), interferon-gamma (INF-γ)), T helper 2 (Th2) cytokines (interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-5 (IL-5), interleukin-6 (IL-6)), T helper 17 (Th17) cytokine (interleukin-17 (IL-17)), Regulatory T (Treg) cytokine (interleukin-10 (IL-10)) and chemokines/cytokines, linked with Th1/Th2 subset balance and/or differentiation (interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-12 (IL-12), eosinophil chemotactic protein ( EOTAXIN), macrophage inflammatory proteins-1beta (MIP-1β), interferon-gamma-induced protein-10 (IP-10), regulated on activation, normal T cell expressed and secreted (RANTES), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1(MCP-1)) were measured. Leukoocyte subset analysis was performed for T cells, B cells and T regulatory cells and a luminex assay was used to measure the cytokiens. Results: Between September 2009 and August 2011, 163 cases of vitamin D deficiency were brought to the attention of the ScotPSU, and the majority of cases (n = 82) were reported in Glasgow. The cross-validation checking in Glasgow and Edinburgh over a one-year period revealed only 3 (11%) cases of clearly symptomatic vitamin D deficiency, which had been missed by the ScotPSU survey in Glasgow. While 16 (67%) symptomatic cases had failed to be reported through the ScotPSU survey in Edinburgh. For the 23 children who are included in bone and glucose studies, 22 (96%) children had basal serum 25(OH)D in the deficiency range (< 50 nmol/l) and one (4%) child had serum 25(OH)D in the insufficiency range (51-75 nmol/l). Following vitamin D3 treatment, 2 (9%) children had final serum 25(OH)D lower than 50 nmol/l, 6 (26%) children had final serum 25(OH)D between >50-75 nmol/l, 12 (52%) children reached a final serum 25(OH)D >75-150 nmol/l and finally 3 (13%) exceeded the normal reference range with a final 25(OH)D >150 nmol/l. Markers for remodelling ALP and PTH had significantly decreased (p = 0.001 and <0.0001 for ALP and PTH respectively). In 17 patients for whom insulin and HOMA IR data were available and enrolled in glucose study, significant improvements in insulin resistance (p = 0.04) with a trend toward a reduction in serum insulin (p = 0.05) was observed. Of those 14 children who had their cytokines profile data analysed and enrolled in the immunity study, insulin and HOMA IR data were missed in one child. A significant increase in the main Th2 secreted cytokine IL-4 (p = 0.001) and a tendency for significant increases in other Th2 secreted cytokines IL-5 (p = 0.05) and IL-6 (p = 0.05) was observed following vitamin D3 supplementation. Conclusion: An electronic surveillance system can provide data for studying the epidemiology of vitamin D deficiency. However, it may underestimate the number of positive cases. Improving vitamin D status in vitamin D deficient otherwise healthy children significantly improved their vitamin D deficient status, and was associated with an improvement in bone profile, improvements in insulin resistance and an alteration in main Th2 secreting cytokines.

Leptospirosis in northern Tanzania: exploring the role of rodents and ruminant livestock in a neglected public health problem

Leptospirosis is an important but neglected zoonotic disease that is often overlooked in Africa. Although comprehensive data on the incidence of human disease are lacking, robust evidence of infection has been demonstrated in people and animals from all regions of the continent. However, to date, there are few examples of direct epidemiological linkages between human disease and animal infection. In East Africa, awareness of the importance of human leptospirosis as a cause of non-malarial febrile illness is growing. In northern Tanzania, acute leptospirosis has been diagnosed in 9% of patients with severe febrile illness compared to only 2% with malaria. However, little is known about the relative importance of different potential animal hosts as sources of human infection in this area. This project was established to investigate the roles of rodents and ruminant livestock, important hosts of Leptospira in other settings, in the epidemiology of leptospirosis in northern Tanzania. A cross-sectional survey of rodents living in and around human settlements was performed alongside an abattoir survey of ruminant livestock. Unusual patterns of animal infection were detected by real-time PCR detection. Renal Leptospira infection was absent from rodents but was detected in cattle from several geographic areas. Infection was demonstrated for the first time in small ruminants sub-Saharan Africa. Two major Leptospira species and a novel Leptospira genotype were detected in livestock. L. borgpetersenii was seen only in cattle but L. kirschneri infection was detected in multiple livestock species (cattle, sheep and goats), suggesting that at least two distinct patterns of Leptospira infection occur in livestock in northern Tanzania. Analysis of samples from acute leptospirosis in febrile human patients could not detect Leptospira DNA by real-time PCR but identified social and behavioural factors that may limit the utility of acute-phase diagnostic tests in this community. Analysis of serological data revealed considerable overlap between serogroups detected in cattle and human leptospirosis cases. Human disease was most commonly attributed to the serogroups Mini and Australis, which were also predominant reactive serogroups in cattle. Collectively, the results of this study led to the hypothesis that livestock are an important reservoir of Leptospira infection for people in northern Tanzania. These results also challenge our understanding of the relationship between Leptospira and common invasive rodent species, which do not appear to maintain infection in this setting. Livestock Leptospira infection has substantial potential to affect the well-being of people in East Africa, through direct transmission of infection or through indirect effects on food production and economic security. Further research is needed to quantify the impact of livestock leptospirosis in Africa and to develop effective interventions for the control of human and animal disease.

‘Breaking good news’: neurologists’ experiences of discussing SUDEP with patients in Scotland

Since the findings of a Fatal Accident Inquiry (FAI) in 2010, clinicians working in Scotland have been advised to discuss the risk of Sudden Unexpected Death in Epilepsy (SUDEP) with patients immediately or soon after a diagnosis of epilepsy is made. A thematic analysis was used to describe the experiences discussing SUDEP of 10 clinicians (six Consultant Neurologists and four Neurology Registrars) working in Scotland. Five themes were found: Clinicians employ a ‘SUDEP protocol’, suggesting there is a standardised way of discussing SUDEP with patients and all clinicians routinely discuss SUDEP with newly diagnosed epilepsy patients; The FAI has diffused into practice through meetings and discussions with colleagues; ‘Breaking Good News’ refers to the ambivalence clinicians feel about discussing SUDEP; ‘Falsely anticipating anxiety’ refers to clinicians anticipating a distressed response from patients despite this very rarely occurring; Clinicians suggest that ‘pressure hinders effective communication’ to patients – suggesting that the pressure to discuss SUDEP early after diagnosis may have an emotional impact on patients and affect the amount of information they can take in. Implications for guideline development are discussed.

The impact and control of malignant catarrhal fever in Tanzania

Malignant Catarrhal Fever (MCF), an often-lethal infectious disease, presents as a variable complex of lesions in susceptible ungulate species. The disease is caused by a -herpesvirus following transmission from an inapparent carrier host. Two major epidemiological forms exist: wildebeest-associated MCF (WA-MCF), in which the virus is transmitted to susceptible species by wildebeest calves less than approximately four months of age, and sheepassociated MCF (SA-MCF) in which the virus is spread by sheep (primarily adolescents). Due to the lack of an in-vitro propagation system for the causative agent of the more economically significant SA-MCF, and with the expectation that cross-protective immunity may be provided, vaccine development has focused on the more easily propagated alcelaphine herpesvirus-1 (AlHV-1) that causes WA-MCF. In 2008 a direct viral challenge trial showed that a novel vaccine, employing an attenuated AlHV-1 (atAlHV-1) `C5000 virus strain, protected British Friesian-Holstein (FH) cattle against an intranasal challenge with virulent AlHV-1 `C5000 virus. For cattle keeping people living near wildebeest calving areas in sub-Saharan Africa an effective vaccine would have value as it would release them from the costly annual disease avoidance strategy of having to move their herds away from the oncoming wildebeest. On the other hand, an effective vaccine will release herd owners from the need to avoid MCF, allowing them to graze their cattle alongside wildebeest on the highly nutritious pastures of the calving areas. As such conservationists have raised concerns that the development of a vaccine might lead to detrimental grazing competition. The principle objective of this study was to test the novel vaccine on Tanzanian shorthorn zebu cross cattle (SZC).We did this firstly using a natural challenge field trial (Chapter Two) which demonstrated that immunisation with the atAlHV-1 vaccine was well tolerated and induced an oro-nasopharyngeal AlHV-1-specific and -neutralising antibody response. This resulted in an immunity in SZC cattle that was partially protective and reduced naturally transmitted infection by 56%. We also demonstrated that non-fatal infections occurred with a much higher frequency than previously thought. Because the calculated efficacy of the vaccine was less than that seen in British FH cattle we wanted to determine whether host factors, particular to SZC cattle, had impacted the outcomes of the field trial. To do this we repeated the 2008 direct viral challenge trial using SZC cattle (Chapter Four). During this trial we also investigated whether the recombinant bacterial flagellin monomer (FliC), when used as an adjuvant, might improve the vaccine’s efficacy. The findings from this trial indicated that direct challenge with pathogenic AlHV-1 is effective at inducing MCF in SZC cattle and that FliC is not an appropriate adjuvant for this vaccine. Furthermore, with less control group cattle dying of MCF than expected we speculate that SZC cattle may have a degree of resistance to MCF that affords them protection from infection and developing fatal disease. In Chapter Three we investigated aspects of the epidemiology of MCF, specifically whether wildebeest placenta, long implicated by Maasai cattle owners as a source of MCF, might play a role in viral transmission. Additionally, through comparative sequence analysis, at two specific genes (A9.5 and ORF50) of wild-type and atAlHV-1, we investigated whether the `C5000 strain, the source of which was taken from Africa more than 40 years ago, was appropriate for vaccine development. The detection of AlHV-1 virus in approximately 50% of placentae indicated that infection can occur in-utero and that this tissue might play a role in disease transmission. And, despite describing three new alleles of the A9.5 gene (supporting previous evidence that this gene is polymorphic and encodes a secretory protein with interleukin-4 as the major homologue), the observation that the most frequently detected haplotypes, in both wild-type and attenuated AlHV-1, were identical suggests that AlHV-1 has a slow molecular clock and that the attenuated strain was appropriate for vaccine development. In Chapter Five we present the first quantitative assessment of the annual MCF avoidance costs that Maasai pastoralists incur. In particular we estimated that as a result of MCF avoidance 64% of the total daily milk yield during the MCF season was not available to be used by the 81% of the family unit remaining at the permanent boma. This represents an upper-bound loss of approximately 8% of a household0s annual income. Despite these considerable losses we concluded that, given an incidence of fatal MCF in cattle living in wildebeest calving areas of 5% to 10%, if herd owners were to stop trying to avoid MCF by allowing their cattle to graze alongside wildebeest, any gains made through increased availability of milk, improved body condition and reduced energy demands would be offset by an increase in MCF-incidence. With the development of an effective vaccine, however, this alternative strategy might become optimal. The overall conclusion we draw therefore is that, despite the substantial costs incurred each year avoiding MCF, the partial protection afforded by the novel vaccine strategy is not sufficient to warrant a wholesale change in disease avoidance strategy. Nonetheless, even the partial protection provided by this vaccine could be of value to protect animals that cannot be moved, for example where some of the herd remain at the boma to provide milk or where land-use changes make traditional disease avoidance difficult. Furthermore, the vaccine may offer a feasible solution to some of the current land-use challenges and conflicts, providing a degree of protection to valuable livestock where avoidance strategies are not possible, but with less risk of precipitating the potentially damaging environmental consequences, such as overgrazing of highly nutritious seasonal pastures, that might result if herd owners decide they no longer need to avoid wildebeest.

Heart failure in young adults

Heart failure (HF) is a major health concern affecting 15 million people in Europe and around 900 000 people in the U.K. HF predominantly affects the elderly, with the mean age of patients with a diagnosis of HF between 70 and 80 years. Most previous HF studies have accordingly focused on older patients. Although HF is less common in younger adults (<65 years), 15% to 20% of patients hospitalised with HF are younger than 60 years of age. Very few studies have described the characteristics of younger adults with HF and its outcome. The aims of this thesis are to describe the clinical characteristics of younger adults with HF, explore the epidemiology of HF in younger adults and determine their short- and long-term outcomes. This was made possible by access multiple databases consisting of large patient cohorts with HF. The first chapter is a systematic literature review of younger adults with HF. Gaps in the current literature were identified and the thesis focused on some of these. The CHARM study allows detail characterisations of younger adults with HF. It recorded characteristics of patients with HF, including symptoms and signs of HF, electrocardiographic changes, chest radiographic findings, and also left ventricular ejection fraction. HF hospitalisations and its precipitating factors were also recorded systematically. Younger adults were more likely to have a third heart sound and hepatomegaly, but less likely to have pulmonary crackles and peripheral oedema. Similarly, radiological findings in younger adults were less likely to show interstitial pulmonary oedema or pleural effusion. Interestingly, younger adults aged <40 years not only have similar HF hospitalisation rate to older patients, however during their presentation with decompensated HF, they were less likely to have clinical pulmonary oedema and radiological signs of HF. Physicians managing younger adults with HF need to be aware of this. Younger adults were also less compliant with medications and lifestyle restriction resulting in hospitalisation with decompensated HF. Fortunately, despite these challenges, mortality rates in younger adults with HF were lower compared to older patients. To further substantiate the findings from the CHARM study, the MAGGIC study, a meta-analysis consists of over 40 000 patients with HF from large observational studies and randomised controlled trials, was examined. In both databases, the commonest aetiology of HF in younger adults was dilated cardiomyopathy. The ejection fraction was the lowest in younger adults. Similar to the CHARM study, mortality rates in younger adults were lower compared to older patients. However, in the MAGGIC study, by stratifying mortality into patients with preserved ejection fraction and with reduced ejection fraction, younger patients with preserved ejection fraction have a much lower mortality rate compared to patients with reduced ejection fraction. Findings from clinical trials are not always reflective of the real life clinical practice. The U.K. Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a large and well-validated primary care database with 654 practices contributing information into the database representing approximated 8% of the U.K. population, is a rich dataset offering a unique opportunity to examine the characteristics, treatments, and outcomes of younger adults with HF in the community. In contrast to the CHARM and MAGGIC studies, younger adults aged <40 years were stratified into 20-29 and 30-39 years in the CPRD analysis. This is possible due to the larger number of younger adults with HF. Further stratifying the younger age groups demonstrated heterogeneity among younger adults with HF. In contrast to previous data showing younger adults have lower co-morbidities, the proportions of depression, chronic kidney disease, asthma, and any connective tissue disease were high among patients aged 20-29 years in the analysis from the CPRD. Surprisingly, the treatment rates for angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, and aldosterone antagonist were the lowest in patients aged 20-29 years. With the exception of patients aged ≥80 years, treatment rate with beta-blocker was also the lowest in patients aged 20-29 years. With over two decades of follow up, long-term mortality rates in younger adults with HF can be determined. The mortality rates continued to decline from 1988 to 2011. Physicians managing younger adults with HF can now use this contemporary data to provide prognostic information to patients and their family. A hospital administrative database is the logical next platform to explore younger adults with HF. The Alberta Ministry of Health database links an outpatient database to a hospitalisation database providing ample data to examine the relationship between outpatient clinic visits and hospital admissions in younger adults with HF. Following a diagnosis of HF in the outpatient setting, younger adults were admitted to the hospital with decompensated HF much sooner than older patients. Younger adults also presented to emergency department more frequently following their first hospitalisation for HF. In conclusion, this thesis presented the characteristics and outcomes of younger adults with HF, and helped to extend our current understanding on this important topic. I hope the data presented here will benefit not only physicians looking after younger adults with HF, but also patients and their family.