A national coastal erosion risk assessment for Scotland

The geography of Scotland, with a highly undulating hinterland, long and indented coastline, together with a large number of islands, means that much social and economic activity is largely located at the coast. The importance of the coast is further highlighted by the large number of ecosystem services derived from the coast. The threat posed by climate change, particularly current and future sea level rise, is of considerable concern and the associated coastal erosion and coastal flooding has the potential to have a substantial effect on the socioeconomic activity of the whole country. Currently, the knowledge base of coastal erosion is poor, which serves to hinder the current and future management of the coast. This research reported here aimed to establish four key aspects of coastal erosion within Scotland: the physical susceptibility of the coast to erosion; the assets exposed to coastal erosion; the vulnerability of communities to coastal erosion; and the coastal erosion risk to those communities. Coastal erosion susceptibility was modelled here within a GIS, using data for ground elevation, rockhead elevation, wave exposure and proximity to the open coast. Combining these data produced the Underlying Physical Susceptibility Model (UPSM), in the form of a 50 m2 raster of national coverage. The Coastal Erosion Susceptibility Model (CESM) was produced with the addition of sediment supply and coastal defence data, which then moderates the outputs of the UPSM. Asset data for dwellings, key assets, transport infrastructure, historic assets, and natural assets were used along with the UPSM and CESM to assess their degree of exposure to coastal erosion. A Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Model (CEVM) was produced using Experian Mosaic Scotland (a geodemographic classification which identifies 44 different social groups within Scotland) to classify populations based upon 11 vulnerability variables. Dwellings were assigned a CESM and CEVM score in order to establish their coastal erosion risk. This research demonstrated that the issue of coastal erosion will impact on a relatively low number of properties compared to those impacted by flooding (both coastal and fluvial) as many dwellings are already protected by coastal defences. There is therefore, a considerable future liability, and great pressure for coastal defences to be maintained and upgraded in their current form. The use of the CEVM is a novel inclusion within a coastal erosion assessment for Scotland. Use of the CEVM established that coastal erosion risk is not distributed equally amongst the Scottish coastal population and highlighted that risk can be reduced by either reducing exposure or reducing vulnerability. Thus far in Scotland, reducing exposure has been the primary management approach, which has a number of implications with regards social justice. This research identified the existing data gaps that should be addressed by future research in order to further improve coastal management in Scotland. Future research should focus on assessing historical coastal change rates on a national scale, improve modelling of national scale wave exposure, enhance the information held about current coastal defences and, determine the direct and indirect economic cost associated with the loss of different asset types. It is also necessary to clarify the social justice implications of using adaptation approaches to manage coastal erosion as well as establishing a method to communicate the susceptibility, exposure, vulnerability and risk aspects whilst minimising the potential negative impacts (e.g. property blight) of releasing such information.

Essays in corporate finance

China has been growing rapidly over the last decades. The private sector is the driving force of this growth. This thesis focuses on firm-level investment and cash holdings in China, and the chapters are structured around the following issues. 1. Why do private firms grow so fast when they are more financially constrained? In Chapter 3, we use a panel of over 600,000 firms of different ownership types from 1998 to 2007 to find the link between investment opportunities and financial constraints. The main finding indicates that private firms, which are more likely to be financially constrained, have high investment-investment opportunity sensitivity. Furthermore, this sensitivity is relatively lower for state-owned firms in China. This shows that constrained firms value investment opportunities more than unconstrained firms. To better measure investment opportunities, we attempt to improve the Q model by considering supply and demand sides simultaneously. When we capture q from the supply side and the demand side, we find that various types of firms respond differently towards different opportunity shocks. 2. In China, there are many firms whose cash flow is far greater than their fixed capital investment. Why is their investment still sensitive to cash flow? To explain this, in Chapter 4, we attempt to introduce a new channel to find how cash flow affects firm-level investment. We use a dynamic structural model and take uncertainty and ambiguity aversion into consideration. We find that uncertainty and ambiguity aversion will make investment less sensitive to investment opportunities. However, investment-cash flow sensitivity will increase when uncertainty is high. This suggests that investment cash flow sensitivities could still be high even when the firms are not financially constrained. 3. Why do firms in China hold so much cash? How can managers’ confidence affect corporate cash holdings? In Chapter 5, we analyse corporate cash holdings in China. Firms hold cash for precautionary reasons, to hedge frictions such as financing constraints and uncertainty. In addition, firms may act differently if they are confident or not. In order to determine how confidence shocks affect precautionary savings, we develop a dynamic model taking financing constraints, uncertainty, adjustment costs and confidence shocks into consideration. We find that without confidence shocks, firms will save money in bad times and invest in good times to maximise their value. However, if managers lose their confidence, they tend to save money in good times to use in bad times, to hedge risks and financing constraint problems. This can help explain why people find different results on the cash flow sensitivity of cash. Empirically, we use a panel of Chinese listed firms. The results show that firms in China save more money in good times, and the confidence shock channel can significantly affect firms’ cash holdings policy.

Controlled surface nanotopography and oxygen plasma treatment of PEEK to improve cellular response

Poly(aryl-ether-ether-ketone) (PEEK) is a semi crystalline polymer which exhibits properties that make it an attractive choice for use as an implant material. It displays natural radiolucency, and MRI compatibility, as well as good chemical and sterilization resistance, both of which make it of particular interest in orthopaedic implants. However, PEEK has demonstrated poor cellular adhesion both in vitro and in vivo. This is problematic as implant surfaces that do not develop a layer of adhesive cells are at risk of undergoing fibrous encapsulation, which in turn leads to lack of a strong interface between the implant device and the patient tissue, which can in turn lead to failure of the implant and revision surgery . As incorporating nanotopography into a polymer surface has been demonstrated to be able to direct the differentiation behaviour of stem cells, a possible solution to PEEKs underlying issues with poor cellular response would be to incorporate specific nanoscale topography into the material surface through injection moulding, and then analysing if this is a viable method for addressing PEEKs issues with cellular response. In addition to nanoscale topography, the experimental PEEK surfaces were treated with oxygen plasma to address the underlying cytophobicity of the material. As this type of treatment has been documented to be capable of etching the PEEK surface, experiments were carried out to quantify the effect of this treatment, both on the ability of cells to adhere to the PEEK surface, as well as the effect it has upon the nanotopography present at the PEEK surface. The results demonstrated that there were a range of plasma treatments which would significantly improve the ability of cells to adhere to the PEEK surface without causing unacceptable damage to the nanotopography. Three different types of cells with osteogenic capacity were tested with the PEEK surfaces to gauge the ability of the topography to alter their behaviour: SAOS-2, osteoprogenitors and 271+ MSCs. Due to PEEKs material properties (it is non transparent, exhibits birefringence and is strongly autofluorescent) a number of histological techniques were used to investigate a number of different stages that take place in osteogenesis. The different cell types did display slightly different responses to the topographies. The SAOS-2 cells cultured on surfaces that had been plasma treated for 2 minutes at 200W had statistically significantly higher levels of von Kossa staining on the NSQ surface compared to the planar surface, and the same experiment employing alizarin red staining, showed a statistically significantly lower level of staining on the SQ surface compared to the planar surface. Using primary osteoprogenitor cells designed to look into if whether or not the presence of nanotopography effected the osteogenic response of these cells, we saw a lack of statistically significant difference produced by the surfaces investigated. By utilising HRP based immunostaining, we were able to investigate, in a quantitative fashion, the production of the two osteogenic markers osteopontin and osteocalcin by cells. When stained for osteocalcin, the SQ nanotopography had total percentage of the surface with stained material, average area and average perimeter all statistically significantly lower than the planar surface. For the cells that were stained for osteopontin, the SQ nanotopgraphy had a total percentage of the surface with stained material, average area and average perimeter all highly statistically significantly lower than those of the planar surface. Additionally, for this marker the NSQ nanotopography had average areas and average perimeters that were highly significantly higher than those of the planar surface. There were no significant differences for any of the values investigated for the 271+ MSC’s When plasma treatment was varied, the SAOS-2 cells demonstrated an overall trend i.e. increasing the energy of plasma treatment in turn leads to an increase in the overall percentage of staining. A similar experiment employing stem cells isolated from human bone marrow instead of SAOS-2 cells showed that for polycarbonate surfaces , used as a control, mineralization is statistically significantly higher on the NSQ nanopattern compared to the planar surface, whereas on the PEEK surfaces we observe the opposite trend i.e. the NSQ nanotopography having a statistically significantly lower amount of mineralization compared to the planar surface at the 200W 2min and 30W 1min plasma treatments. The standout trend from the PEEK results in this experiment was that the statistically significant differences on the PEEK substrates were clustered around the lower energy plasma treatments, which could suggest that the plasma treatment disrupted a function of the nanotopograhy which is why, as the energy increases, there are less statistically significant differences between the NSQ nanotopography and the Planar surface This thesis documents the response of a number of different types of cells to specific nanoscale topographies incorporated into the PEEK surface which had been treated with oxygen plasma. It outlines the development of a number of histological methods which measure different aspects of osteogenesis, and were selected to both work with PEEK, and produce quantitative results through the use of Cell Profiler. The methods that have been employed in this body of work would be of interest to other researchers working with this material, as well as those working with similarly autofluorescent materials.