Probabilistic verification of satellite systems for mission critical applications

In this thesis, we present a quantitative approach using probabilistic verification techniques for the analysis of reliability, availability, maintainability, and safety (RAMS) properties of satellite systems. The subject of our research is satellites used in mission critical industrial applications. A strong case for using probabilistic model checking to support RAMS analysis of satellite systems is made by our verification results. This study is intended to build a foundation to help reliability engineers with a basic background in model checking to apply probabilistic model checking to small satellite systems. We make two major contributions. One of these is the approach of RAMS analysis to satellite systems. In the past, RAMS analysis has been extensively applied to the field of electrical and electronics engineering. It allows system designers and reliability engineers to predict the likelihood of failures from the indication of historical or current operational data. There is a high potential for the application of RAMS analysis in the field of space science and engineering. However, there is a lack of standardisation and suitable procedures for the correct study of RAMS characteristics for satellite systems. This thesis considers the promising application of RAMS analysis to the case of satellite design, use, and maintenance, focusing on its system segments. Data collection and verification procedures are discussed, and a number of considerations are also presented on how to predict the probability of failure. Our second contribution is leveraging the power of probabilistic model checking to analyse satellite systems. We present techniques for analysing satellite systems that differ from the more common quantitative approaches based on traditional simulation and testing. These techniques have not been applied in this context before. We present the use of probabilistic techniques via a suite of detailed examples, together with their analysis. Our presentation is done in an incremental manner: in terms of complexity of application domains and system models, and a detailed PRISM model of each scenario. We also provide results from practical work together with a discussion about future improvements.

Probabilistic design optimization of horizontal axis wind turbine rotors

Considerable interest in renewable energy has increased in recent years due to the concerns raised over the environmental impact of conventional energy sources and their price volatility. In particular, wind power has enjoyed a dramatic global growth in installed capacity over the past few decades. Nowadays, the advancement of wind turbine industry represents a challenge for several engineering areas, including materials science, computer science, aerodynamics, analytical design and analysis methods, testing and monitoring, and power electronics. In particular, the technological improvement of wind turbines is currently tied to the use of advanced design methodologies, allowing the designers to develop new and more efficient design concepts. Integrating mathematical optimization techniques into the multidisciplinary design of wind turbines constitutes a promising way to enhance the profitability of these devices. In the literature, wind turbine design optimization is typically performed deterministically. Deterministic optimizations do not consider any degree of randomness affecting the inputs of the system under consideration, and result, therefore, in an unique set of outputs. However, given the stochastic nature of the wind and the uncertainties associated, for instance, with wind turbine operating conditions or geometric tolerances, deterministically optimized designs may be inefficient. Therefore, one of the ways to further improve the design of modern wind turbines is to take into account the aforementioned sources of uncertainty in the optimization process, achieving robust configurations with minimal performance sensitivity to factors causing variability. The research work presented in this thesis deals with the development of a novel integrated multidisciplinary design framework for the robust aeroservoelastic design optimization of multi-megawatt horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) rotors, accounting for the stochastic variability related to the input variables. The design system is based on a multidisciplinary analysis module integrating several simulations tools needed to characterize the aeroservoelastic behavior of wind turbines, and determine their economical performance by means of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The reported design framework is portable and modular in that any of its analysis modules can be replaced with counterparts of user-selected fidelity. The presented technology is applied to the design of a 5-MW HAWT rotor to be used at sites of wind power density class from 3 to 7, where the mean wind speed at 50 m above the ground ranges from 6.4 to 11.9 m/s. Assuming the mean wind speed to vary stochastically in such range, the rotor design is optimized by minimizing the mean and standard deviation of the LCOE. Airfoil shapes, spanwise distributions of blade chord and twist, internal structural layup and rotor speed are optimized concurrently, subject to an extensive set of structural and aeroelastic constraints. The effectiveness of the multidisciplinary and robust design framework is demonstrated by showing that the probabilistically designed turbine achieves more favorable probabilistic performance than those of the initial baseline turbine and a turbine designed deterministically.

Data structures for SIMD logic simulation

Due to the growth of design size and complexity, design verification is an important aspect of the Logic Circuit development process. The purpose of verification is to validate that the design meets the system requirements and specification. This is done by either functional or formal verification. The most popular approach to functional verification is the use of simulation based techniques. Using models to replicate the behaviour of an actual system is called simulation. In this thesis, a software/data structure architecture without explicit locks is proposed to accelerate logic gate circuit simulation. We call thus system ZSIM. The ZSIM software architecture simulator targets low cost SIMD multi-core machines. Its performance is evaluated on the Intel Xeon Phi and 2 other machines (Intel Xeon and AMD Opteron). The aim of these experiments is to: • Verify that the data structure used allows SIMD acceleration, particularly on machines with gather instructions ( section 5.3.1). • Verify that, on sufficiently large circuits, substantial gains could be made from multicore parallelism ( section 5.3.2 ). • Show that a simulator using this approach out-performs an existing commercial simulator on a standard workstation ( section 5.3.3 ). • Show that the performance on a cheap Xeon Phi card is competitive with results reported elsewhere on much more expensive super-computers ( section 5.3.5 ). To evaluate the ZSIM, two types of test circuits were used: 1. Circuits from the IWLS benchmark suit [1] which allow direct comparison with other published studies of parallel simulators.2. Circuits generated by a parametrised circuit synthesizer. The synthesizer used an algorithm that has been shown to generate circuits that are statistically representative of real logic circuits. The synthesizer allowed testing of a range of very large circuits, larger than the ones for which it was possible to obtain open source files. The experimental results show that with SIMD acceleration and multicore, ZSIM gained a peak parallelisation factor of 300 on Intel Xeon Phi and 11 on Intel Xeon. With only SIMD enabled, ZSIM achieved a maximum parallelistion gain of 10 on Intel Xeon Phi and 4 on Intel Xeon. Furthermore, it was shown that this software architecture simulator running on a SIMD machine is much faster than, and can handle much bigger circuits than a widely used commercial simulator (Xilinx) running on a workstation. The performance achieved by ZSIM was also compared with similar pre-existing work on logic simulation targeting GPUs and supercomputers. It was shown that ZSIM simulator running on a Xeon Phi machine gives comparable simulation performance to the IBM Blue Gene supercomputer at very much lower cost. The experimental results have shown that the Xeon Phi is competitive with simulation on GPUs and allows the handling of much larger circuits than have been reported for GPU simulation. When targeting Xeon Phi architecture, the automatic cache management of the Xeon Phi, handles and manages the on-chip local store without any explicit mention of the local store being made in the architecture of the simulator itself. However, targeting GPUs, explicit cache management in program increases the complexity of the software architecture. Furthermore, one of the strongest points of the ZSIM simulator is its portability. Note that the same code was tested on both AMD and Xeon Phi machines. The same architecture that efficiently performs on Xeon Phi, was ported into a 64 core NUMA AMD Opteron. To conclude, the two main achievements are restated as following: The primary achievement of this work was proving that the ZSIM architecture was faster than previously published logic simulators on low cost platforms. The secondary achievement was the development of a synthetic testing suite that went beyond the scale range that was previously publicly available, based on prior work that showed the synthesis technique is valid.

LHC main dipole magnet circuits: sustaining near-nominal beam energies

Crossing the Franco-Swiss border, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), designed to collide 7 TeV proton beams, is the world's largest and most powerful particle accelerator the operation of which was originally intended to commence in 2008. Unfortunately, due to an interconnect discontinuity in one of the main dipole circuit's 13 kA superconducting busbars, a catastrophic quench event occurred during initial magnet training, causing significant physical system damage. Furthermore, investigation into the cause found that such discontinuities were not only present in the circuit in question, but throughout the entire LHC. This prevented further magnet training and ultimately resulted in the maximum sustainable beam energy being limited to approximately half that of the design nominal, 3.5-4 TeV, for the first three years of operation (Run 1, 2009-2012) and a major consolidation campaign being scheduled for the first long shutdown (LS 1, 2012-2014). Throughout Run 1, a series of studies attempted to predict the amount of post-installation training quenches still required to qualify each circuit to nominal-energy current levels. With predictions in excess of 80 quenches (each having a recovery time of 8-12+ hours) just to achieve 6.5 TeV and close to 1000 quenches for 7 TeV, it was decided that for Run 2, all systems be at least qualified for 6.5 TeV operation. However, even with all interconnect discontinuities scheduled to be repaired during LS 1, numerous other concerns regarding circuit stability arose. In particular, observations of an erratic behaviour of magnet bypass diodes and the degradation of other potentially weak busbar sections, as well as observations of seemingly random millisecond spikes in beam losses, known as unidentified falling object (UFO) events, which, if persist at 6.5 TeV, may eventually deposit sufficient energy to quench adjacent magnets. In light of the above, the thesis hypothesis states that, even with the observed issues, the LHC main dipole circuits can safely support and sustain near-nominal proton beam energies of at least 6.5 TeV. Research into minimising the risk of magnet training led to the development and implementation of a new qualification method, capable of providing conclusive evidence that all aspects of all circuits, other than the magnets and their internal joints, can safely withstand a quench event at near-nominal current levels, allowing for magnet training to be carried out both systematically and without risk. This method has become known as the Copper Stabiliser Continuity Measurement (CSCM). Results were a success, with all circuits eventually being subject to a full current decay from 6.5 TeV equivalent current levels, with no measurable damage occurring. Research into UFO events led to the development of a numerical model capable of simulating typical UFO events, reproducing entire Run 1 measured event data sets and extrapolating to 6.5 TeV, predicting the likelihood of UFO-induced magnet quenches. Results provided interesting insights into the involved phenomena as well as confirming the possibility of UFO-induced magnet quenches. The model was also capable of predicting that such events, if left unaccounted for, are likely to be commonplace or not, resulting in significant long-term issues for 6.5+ TeV operation. Addressing the thesis hypothesis, the following written works detail the development and results of all CSCM qualification tests and subsequent magnet training as well as the development and simulation results of both 4 TeV and 6.5 TeV UFO event modelling. The thesis concludes, post-LS 1, with the LHC successfully sustaining 6.5 TeV proton beams, but with UFO events, as predicted, resulting in otherwise uninitiated magnet quenches and being at the forefront of system availability issues.