Exploring the potential role of allostatic load biomarkers in risk assessment of patients presenting with depressive symptoms

Background: Depression is a major health problem worldwide and the majority of patients presenting with depressive symptoms are managed in primary care. Current approaches for assessing depressive symptoms in primary care are not accurate in predicting future clinical outcomes, which may potentially lead to over or under treatment. The Allostatic Load (AL) theory suggests that by measuring multi-system biomarker levels as a proxy of measuring multi-system physiological dysregulation, it is possible to identify individuals at risk of having adverse health outcomes at a prodromal stage. Allostatic Index (AI) score, calculated by applying statistical formulations to different multi-system biomarkers, have been associated with depressive symptoms. Aims and Objectives: To test the hypothesis, that a combination of allostatic load (AL) biomarkers will form a predictive algorithm in defining clinically meaningful outcomes in a population of patients presenting with depressive symptoms. The key objectives were: 1. To explore the relationship between various allostatic load biomarkers and prevalence of depressive symptoms in patients, especially in patients diagnosed with three common cardiometabolic diseases (Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), Diabetes and Stroke). 2 To explore whether allostatic load biomarkers predict clinical outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms, especially in patients with three common cardiometabolic diseases (CHD, Diabetes and Stroke). 3 To develop a predictive tool to identify individuals with depressive symptoms at highest risk of adverse clinical outcomes. Methods: Datasets used: ‘DepChron’ was a dataset of 35,537 patients with existing cardiometabolic disease collected as a part of routine clinical practice. ‘Psobid’ was a research data source containing health related information from 666 participants recruited from the general population. The clinical outcomes for 3 both datasets were studied using electronic data linkage to hospital and mortality health records, undertaken by Information Services Division, Scotland. Cross-sectional associations between allostatic load biomarkers calculated at baseline, with clinical severity of depression assessed by a symptom score, were assessed using logistic and linear regression models in both datasets. Cox’s proportional hazards survival analysis models were used to assess the relationship of allostatic load biomarkers at baseline and the risk of adverse physical health outcomes at follow-up, in patients with depressive symptoms. The possibility of interaction between depressive symptoms and allostatic load biomarkers in risk prediction of adverse clinical outcomes was studied using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) test. Finally, the value of constructing a risk scoring scale using patient demographics and allostatic load biomarkers for predicting adverse outcomes in depressed patients was investigated using clinical risk prediction modelling and Area Under Curve (AUC) statistics. Key Results: Literature Review Findings. The literature review showed that twelve blood based peripheral biomarkers were statistically significant in predicting six different clinical outcomes in participants with depressive symptoms. Outcomes related to both mental health (depressive symptoms) and physical health were statistically associated with pre-treatment levels of peripheral biomarkers; however only two studies investigated outcomes related to physical health. Cross-sectional Analysis Findings: In DepChron, dysregulation of individual allostatic biomarkers (mainly cardiometabolic) were found to have a non-linear association with increased probability of co-morbid depressive symptoms (as assessed by Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score HADS-D≥8). A composite AI score constructed using five biomarkers did not lead to any improvement in the observed strength of the association. In Psobid, BMI was found to have a significant cross-sectional association with the probability of depressive symptoms (assessed by General Health Questionnaire GHQ-28≥5). BMI, triglycerides, highly sensitive C - reactive 4 protein (CRP) and High Density Lipoprotein-HDL cholesterol were found to have a significant cross-sectional relationship with the continuous measure of GHQ-28. A composite AI score constructed using 12 biomarkers did not show a significant association with depressive symptoms among Psobid participants. Longitudinal Analysis Findings: In DepChron, three clinical outcomes were studied over four years: all-cause death, all-cause hospital admissions and composite major adverse cardiovascular outcome-MACE (cardiovascular death or admission due to MI/stroke/HF). Presence of depressive symptoms and composite AI score calculated using mainly peripheral cardiometabolic biomarkers was found to have a significant association with all three clinical outcomes over the following four years in DepChron patients. There was no evidence of an interaction between AI score and presence of depressive symptoms in risk prediction of any of the three clinical outcomes. There was a statistically significant interaction noted between SBP and depressive symptoms in risk prediction of major adverse cardiovascular outcome, and also between HbA1c and depressive symptoms in risk prediction of all-cause mortality for patients with diabetes. In Psobid, depressive symptoms (assessed by GHQ-28≥5) did not have a statistically significant association with any of the four outcomes under study at seven years: all cause death, all cause hospital admission, MACE and incidence of new cancer. A composite AI score at baseline had a significant association with the risk of MACE at seven years, after adjusting for confounders. A continuous measure of IL-6 observed at baseline had a significant association with the risk of three clinical outcomes- all-cause mortality, all-cause hospital admissions and major adverse cardiovascular event. Raised total cholesterol at baseline was associated with lower risk of all-cause death at seven years while raised waist hip ratio- WHR at baseline was associated with higher risk of MACE at seven years among Psobid participants. There was no significant interaction between depressive symptoms and peripheral biomarkers (individual or combined) in risk prediction of any of the four clinical outcomes under consideration. Risk Scoring System Development: In the DepChron cohort, a scoring system was constructed based on eight baseline demographic and clinical variables to predict the risk of MACE over four years. The AUC value for the risk scoring system was modest at 56.7% (95% CI 55.6 to 57.5%). In Psobid, it was not possible to perform this analysis due to the low event rate observed for the clinical outcomes. Conclusion: Individual peripheral biomarkers were found to have a cross-sectional association with depressive symptoms both in patients with cardiometabolic disease and middle-aged participants recruited from the general population. AI score calculated with different statistical formulations was of no greater benefit in predicting concurrent depressive symptoms or clinical outcomes at follow-up, over and above its individual constituent biomarkers, in either patient cohort. SBP had a significant interaction with depressive symptoms in predicting cardiovascular events in patients with cardiometabolic disease; HbA1c had a significant interaction with depressive symptoms in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes. Peripheral biomarkers may have a role in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms, especially for those with existing cardiometabolic disease, and this merits further investigation.

The pathophysiology of CADASIL: studies in a Scottish cohort

Since identification that mutations in NOTCH3 are responsible for cerebral autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leucoencephalopathy (CADASIL) in the early 1990s, there has been extensive characterisation of the clinical and radiological features of the disease. However therapeutic interventions remain elusive, partly due to a limited understanding of the vascular pathophysiology and how it leads to the development of strokes, cognitive decline and disability. The apparent rarity and heterogenous natural history of CADASIL potentially make conducting any longitudinal or therapeutic trials difficult. The role of disease biomarkers is therefore of some interest. This thesis focuses on vascular function in CADASIL and how it may relate to clinical and radiological markers of disease. Establishing the prevalence of CADASIL in the West of Scotland was important to assess the impact of the disease, and how feasible a trial would be. A mutation prevalence of 10.7 per 100,000 was demonstrated, suggesting significant under diagnosis of the disease across much of Scotland. Cerebral hypoperfusion is thought to be important in CADASIL, and it has been shown that vascular abnormalities precede the development of brain pathology in mouse models. Investigation of vascular function in patients, both in the brain and systemically, requires less invasive measures. Arterial spin labelling magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and transcranial Doppler ultrasound (TCD) can both be used to obtain non-invasive and quantifiable indices of vascular function. Monitoring patients with MRI whilst they receive different concentrations of inspired oxygen and carbon dioxide can provide information on brain function, and I reviewed the practicalities of this technique in order to guide the design of the studies in this thesis. 22 CADASIL patients were recruited to a longitudinal study. Testing included peripheral vascular assessment, assessment of disability, neurological dysfunction, mood and cognition. A CO2 reactivity challenge during both TCD and arterial spin labelling MRI, and detailed MRI sequences were obtained. I was able to demonstrate that vasoreactivity was associated with the number of lacunes and brain atrophy, as were carotid intima-media thickness, vessel stiffness, and age. Patients with greater disability, higher depressive symptoms and poorer processing speed showed a tendency to worse cerebral vasoreactivity but numbers were small. This observation suggests vasoreactivity may have potential as a therapeutic target, or a biomarker. I then wished to establish if arterial spin labelling MRI was useful for assessing change in cerebral blood flow in CADASIL patients. Cortical grey matter showed the highest blood flow, mean (SD), 55 (10) ml/100g/min and blood flow was significantly lower within hyperintensities (19 (4) ml/100g/min; p <0.001). Over one year, blood flow in both grey matter (mean -7 (10) %; p = 0.028) and deep white matter (-8 (13) %; p = 0.036) declined significantly. Cerebrovascular reactivity did not change over one year. I then investigated whether baseline vascular markers were able to predict change in radiological or neuropsychological measures of disease. Changes in brain volume, lacunes, microbleeds and normalised subcortical hyperintensity volume (increase of 0.8%) were shown over one year. Baseline vascular parameters were not able to predict these changes, or those in neuropsychological testing. NOTCH3 is found throughout the body and a systemic vasculopathy has been seen particularly affecting resistance vessels. Gluteal biopsies were obtained from 20 CADASIL patients, and ex vivo myography investigated the response to vasoactive agents. Evidence of impairment in both vasodilation and vasoconstriction was shown. The addition of antioxidants improved endothelium-dependent relaxation, indicating a role for oxidative stress in CADASIL pathology. Myography measures were not related to in vivo measures in the sub-group of patients who had taken part in both studies. The small vessels affected in CADASIL are unable to be imaged by conventional MR imaging so I aimed to establish which vessels might be responsible for lacunes with use of a microangiographic template overlaid onto brain images registered to a standard brain template. This showed most lacunes are small and associated with tertiary arterioles. On the basis of this thesis, it is concluded that vascular dysfunction plays an important role in the pathophysiology of CADASIL, and further assessment of vascular measures in longitudinal studies is needed. Arterial spin labelling MRI should be used as it is a reliable, non-invasive modality that can measure change over one year. Furthermore conventional cardiovascular risk factor prevention should be undertaken in CADASIL patients to delay the deleterious effects of the disease.