Methods matter: computational modelling in public health policy and planning

This work is aimed at understanding and unifying information on epidemiological modelling methods and how those methods relate to public policy addressing human health, specifically in the context of infectious disease prevention, pandemic planning, and health behaviour change. This thesis employs multiple qualitative and quantitative methods, and presents as a manuscript of several individual, data-driven projects that are combined in a narrative arc. The first chapter introduces the scope and complexity of this interdisciplinary undertaking, describing several topical intersections of importance. The second chapter begins the presentation of original data, and describes in detail two exercises in computational epidemiological modelling pertinent to pandemic influenza planning and policy, and progresses in the next chapter to present additional original data on how the confidence of the public in modelling methodology may have an effect on their planned health behaviour change as recommended in public health policy. The thesis narrative continues in the final data-driven chapter to describe how health policymakers use modelling methods and scientific evidence to inform and construct health policies for the prevention of infectious diseases, and concludes with a narrative chapter that evaluates the breadth of this data and recommends strategies for the optimal use of modelling methodologies when informing public health policy in applied public health scenarios.

A contribution towards the performance and structural understanding of copper and nickel salts as ammonia stores

The ongoing depletion of fossil fuels and the severe consequences of the greenhouse effect make the development of alternative energy systems crucially important. While hydrogen is, in principle, a promising alternative, releasing nothing but energy and pure water. Hydrogen storage is complicated and no completely viable technique has been proposed so far. This work is concerned with the study of one potential alternative to pure hydrogen: ammonia, and more specifically its storage in solids. Ammonia, NH3, can be regarded as a chemical hydrogen carrier with the advantages of strongly reduced flammability and explosiveness as compared to hydrogen. Furthermore, ammine metal salts presented here as promising ammonia stores easily store up to 50 wt.-% ammonia, giving them a volumetric energy density comparable to natural gas. The model system NiX2–NH3 ( X = Cl, Br, I) is studied thoroughly with respect to ammine salt formation, thermal decomposition, air stability and structural effects. The system CuX2–NH3 ( X = Cl, Br) has an adverse thermal decomposition behaviour, making it impractical for use as an ammonia store. This system is, however, most interesting from a structural point of view and some work concerning the study of the structural behaviour of this system is presented. Finally, close chemical relatives to the metal ammine halides, the metal ammine nitrates are studied. They exhibit interesting anion arrangements, which is an impressive showcase for the combination of diffraction and spectroscopic information. The characterisation techniques in this thesis range from powder diffraction over single crystal diffraction, spectroscopy, computational modelling, thermal analyses to gravimetric uptake experiments. Further highlights are the structure solutions and refinements from powder data of (NH4)2[NiCl4(H2O)(NH3)] and Ni(NH3)2(NO3)2, the combination of crystallographic and chemical information for the elucidation of the (NH4)2[NiCl4(H2O)(NH3)] formation reaction and the growth of single crystals under ammonia flow, a technique allowing the first documented successful growth and single crystal diffraction measurement for [Cu(NH3)6]Cl2.