Methods matter: computational modelling in public health policy and planning

This work is aimed at understanding and unifying information on epidemiological modelling methods and how those methods relate to public policy addressing human health, specifically in the context of infectious disease prevention, pandemic planning, and health behaviour change. This thesis employs multiple qualitative and quantitative methods, and presents as a manuscript of several individual, data-driven projects that are combined in a narrative arc. The first chapter introduces the scope and complexity of this interdisciplinary undertaking, describing several topical intersections of importance. The second chapter begins the presentation of original data, and describes in detail two exercises in computational epidemiological modelling pertinent to pandemic influenza planning and policy, and progresses in the next chapter to present additional original data on how the confidence of the public in modelling methodology may have an effect on their planned health behaviour change as recommended in public health policy. The thesis narrative continues in the final data-driven chapter to describe how health policymakers use modelling methods and scientific evidence to inform and construct health policies for the prevention of infectious diseases, and concludes with a narrative chapter that evaluates the breadth of this data and recommends strategies for the optimal use of modelling methodologies when informing public health policy in applied public health scenarios.

The impact of social housing on health in Glasgow and Baltimore, 1930-1980

This dissertation seeks to discern the impact of social housing on public health in the cities of Glasgow, Scotland and Baltimore, Maryland in the twentieth century. Additionally, this dissertation seeks to compare the impact of social housing policy implementation in both cities, to determine the efficacy of social housing as a tool of public health betterment. This is accomplished through the exposition and evaluation of the housing and health trends of both cities over the course of the latter half of the twentieth century. Both the cities of Glasgow and Baltimore had long struggled with both overcrowded slum districts and relatively unhealthy populations. Early commentators had noticed the connection between insanitary housing and poor health, and sought a solution to both of these problems. Beginning in the 1940s, housing reform advocates (self-dubbed ‘housers') pressed for the development of social housing, or municipally-controlled housing for low-income persons, to alleviate the problems of overcrowded slum dwellings in both cities. The impetus for social housing was twofold: to provide affordable housing to low-income persons and to provide housing that would facilitate healthy lives for tenants. Whether social housing achieved these goals is the crux of this dissertation. In the immediate years following the Second World War, social housing was built en masse in both cities. Social housing provided a reprieve from slum housing for both working-class Glaswegians and Baltimoreans. In Baltimore specifically, social housing provided accommodation for the city’s Black residents, who found it difficult to occupy housing in White neighbourhoods. As the years progressed, social housing developments in both cities faced unexpected problems. In Glasgow, stable tenant flight (including both middle class and skilled artisan workers)+ resulted in a concentration of poverty in the city’s housing schemes, and in Baltimore, a flight of White tenants of all income levels created a new kind of state subsidized segregated housing stock. The implementation of high-rise tower blocks in both cities, once heralded as a symbol of housing modernity, also faced increased scrutiny in the 1960s and 1970s. During the period of 1940-1980, before policy makers in the United States began to eschew social housing for subsidized private housing vouchers and community based housing associations had truly taken off in Britain, public health professionals conducted academic studies of the impact of social housing tenancy on health. Their findings provide the evidence used to assess the second objective of social housing provision, as outlined above. Put simply, while social housing units were undoubtedly better equipped than slum dwellings in both cities, the public health investigations into the impact of rehousing slum dwellers into social housing revealed that social housing was not a panacea for each city’s social and public health problems.

Leptospirosis in northern Tanzania: exploring the role of rodents and ruminant livestock in a neglected public health problem

Leptospirosis is an important but neglected zoonotic disease that is often overlooked in Africa. Although comprehensive data on the incidence of human disease are lacking, robust evidence of infection has been demonstrated in people and animals from all regions of the continent. However, to date, there are few examples of direct epidemiological linkages between human disease and animal infection. In East Africa, awareness of the importance of human leptospirosis as a cause of non-malarial febrile illness is growing. In northern Tanzania, acute leptospirosis has been diagnosed in 9% of patients with severe febrile illness compared to only 2% with malaria. However, little is known about the relative importance of different potential animal hosts as sources of human infection in this area. This project was established to investigate the roles of rodents and ruminant livestock, important hosts of Leptospira in other settings, in the epidemiology of leptospirosis in northern Tanzania. A cross-sectional survey of rodents living in and around human settlements was performed alongside an abattoir survey of ruminant livestock. Unusual patterns of animal infection were detected by real-time PCR detection. Renal Leptospira infection was absent from rodents but was detected in cattle from several geographic areas. Infection was demonstrated for the first time in small ruminants sub-Saharan Africa. Two major Leptospira species and a novel Leptospira genotype were detected in livestock. L. borgpetersenii was seen only in cattle but L. kirschneri infection was detected in multiple livestock species (cattle, sheep and goats), suggesting that at least two distinct patterns of Leptospira infection occur in livestock in northern Tanzania. Analysis of samples from acute leptospirosis in febrile human patients could not detect Leptospira DNA by real-time PCR but identified social and behavioural factors that may limit the utility of acute-phase diagnostic tests in this community. Analysis of serological data revealed considerable overlap between serogroups detected in cattle and human leptospirosis cases. Human disease was most commonly attributed to the serogroups Mini and Australis, which were also predominant reactive serogroups in cattle. Collectively, the results of this study led to the hypothesis that livestock are an important reservoir of Leptospira infection for people in northern Tanzania. These results also challenge our understanding of the relationship between Leptospira and common invasive rodent species, which do not appear to maintain infection in this setting. Livestock Leptospira infection has substantial potential to affect the well-being of people in East Africa, through direct transmission of infection or through indirect effects on food production and economic security. Further research is needed to quantify the impact of livestock leptospirosis in Africa and to develop effective interventions for the control of human and animal disease.