The role of heart rate as a risk marker for predicting adverse outcomes

Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of death around the world. Resting heart rate has been shown to be a strong and independent risk marker for adverse cardiovascular events and mortality, and yet its role as a predictor of risk is somewhat overlooked in clinical practice. With the aim of highlighting its prognostic value, the role of resting heart rate as a risk marker for death and other adverse outcomes was further examined in a number of different patient populations. A systematic review of studies that previously assessed the prognostic value of resting heart rate for mortality and other adverse cardiovascular outcomes was presented. New analyses of nine clinical trials were carried out. Both the original and extended Cox model that allows for analysis of time-dependent covariates were used to evaluate and compare the predictive value of baseline and time-updated heart rate measurements for adverse outcomes in the CAPRICORN, EUROPA, PROSPER, PERFORM, BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT populations. Pooled individual patient meta-analyses of the CAPRICORN, EPHESUS, OPTIMAAL and VALIANT trials, and the BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT trials, were also performed. The discrimination and calibration of the models applied were evaluated using Harrell’s C-statistic and likelihood ratio tests, respectively. Finally, following on from the systematic review, meta-analyses of the relation between baseline and time-updated heart rate, and the risk of death from any cause and from cardiovascular causes, were conducted. Both elevated baseline and time-updated resting heart rates were found to be associated with an increase in the risk of mortality and other adverse cardiovascular events in all of the populations analysed. In some cases, elevated time-updated heart rate was associated with risk of events where baseline heart rate was not. Time-updated heart rate also contributed additional information about the risk of certain events despite knowledge of baseline heart rate or previous heart rate measurements. The addition of resting heart rate to the models where resting heart rate was found to be associated with risk of outcome improved both discrimination and calibration, and in general, the models including time-updated heart rate along with baseline or the previous heart rate measurement had the highest and similar C-statistics, and thus the greatest discriminative ability. The meta-analyses demonstrated that a 5bpm higher baseline heart rate was associated with a 7.9% and an 8.0% increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively (both p less than 0.001). Additionally, a 5bpm higher time-updated heart rate (adjusted for baseline heart rate in eight of the ten studies included in the analyses) was associated with a 12.8% (p less than 0.001) and a 10.9% (p less than 0.001) increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively. These findings may motivate health care professionals to routinely assess resting heart rate in order to identify individuals at a higher risk of adverse events. The fact that the addition of time-updated resting heart rate improved the discrimination and calibration of models for certain outcomes, even if only modestly, strengthens the case that it be added to traditional risk models. The findings, however, are of particular importance, and have greater implications for the clinical management of patients with pre-existing disease. An elevated, or increasing heart rate over time could be used as a tool, potentially alongside other established risk scores, to help doctors identify patient deterioration or those at higher risk, who might benefit from more intensive monitoring or treatment re-evaluation. Further exploration of the role of continuous recording of resting heart rate, say, when patients are at home, would be informative. In addition, investigation into the cost-effectiveness and optimal frequency of resting heart rate measurement is required. One of the most vital areas for future research is the definition of an objective cut-off value for the definition of a high resting heart rate.

The regulation of AMP-activated protein kinase by vascular endothelial growth factor

The function of the vascular endothelium is to maintain vascular homeostasis, by providing an anti-thrombotic, anti-inflammatory and vasodilatory interface between circulating blood and the vessel wall, meanwhile facilitating the selective passage of blood components such as signaling molecules and immune cells. Dysfunction of the vascular endothelium is implicated in a number of pathological states including atherosclerosis and hypertension, and is thought to precede atherogenesis by a number of years. Vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF) is a crucial mitogenic signaling molecule, not only essential for embryonic development, but also in the adult for regulating both physiological and pathological angiogenesis. Previous studies by our laboratory have demonstrated that VEGF-A activates AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK), the downstream component of a signaling cascade important in the regulation of whole body and cellular energy status. Furthermore, studies in our laboratory have indicated that AMPK is essential for VEGF-A-stimulated vascular endothelial cell proliferation. AMPK activation typically stimulates anabolic processes and inhibits catabolic processes including cell proliferation, with the ultimate aim of redressing energy imbalance, and as such is an attractive therapeutic target for the treatment of obesity, metabolic syndromes, and type 2 diabetes. Metabolic diseases are associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes and AMPK activation is reported to have beneficial effects on the vascular endothelium. The mechanism by which VEGF-A stimulates AMPK, and the functional consequences of VEGF-A-stimulated AMPK activation remain uncertain. The present study therefore aimed to identify the specific mechanism(s) by which VEGF-A regulates the activity of AMPK in endothelial cells, and how this might differ from the activation of AMPK by other agents. Furthermore, the role of AMPK in the pro-proliferative actions of VEGF-A was further examined. Human aortic and umbilical vein endothelial cells were therefore used as a model system to characterise the specific effect(s) of VEGF-A stimulation on AMPK activation. The present study reports that AMPK α1 containing AMPK complexes account for the vast majority of both basal and VEGF-A-stimulated AMPK activity. Furthermore, AMPK α1 is localized to the endoplasmic reticulum when sub-confluent, but translocated to the Golgi apparatus when cells are cultured to confluence. AMPK α2 appears to be associated with a structural cellular component, but neither α1 nor α2 complexes appear to translocate in response to VEGF-A stimulation. The present study confirms previous reports that when measured using the MTS cell proliferation assay, AMPK is required for VEGF-A-stimulated endothelial cell proliferation. However, parallel experiments measuring cell proliferation using the Real-Time Cell Analyzer xCELLigence system, do not agree with these previous reports, suggesting that AMPK may in fact be required for an aspect of mitochondrial metabolism which is enhanced by VEGF-A. Studies into the mitochondrial activity of endothelial cells have proved inconclusive at this time, but further studies into this are warranted. During previous studies in our laboratory, it was suggested that VEGF-A-stimulated AMPK activation may be mediated via the diacylglycerol (DAG)-sensitive transient receptor potential cation channel (TRPCs -3, -6 or -7) family of ion channels. The present study can neither confirm, nor exclude the expression of TRPCs in vascular endothelial cells, nor rule out their involvement in VEGF-A-stimulated AMPK activation; more specific investigative tools are required in order to characterise their involvement. Furthermore, nicotinic acid adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NAADP)-stimulated Ca2+ release from acidic intracellular organelles is not required for AMPK activation by VEGF-A. Despite what is known about the mechanisms by which AMPK is activated, far less is known concerning the downregulation of AMPK activity, as observed in human and animal models of metabolic disease. Phosphorylation of AMPK α1 Ser485 (α2 Ser491) has recently been characterised as a mechanism by which the activity of AMPK is negatively regulated. We report here for the first time that VEGF-A stimulates AMPK α1 Ser485 phosphorylation independently of the previously reported AMPK α1 Ser485 kinases Akt (protein kinase B) and ERK1/2 (extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2). Furthermore, inhibition of protein kinase C (PKC), the activity of which is reported to be elevated in metabolic disease, attenuates VEGF-A- and phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA)-stimulated AMPK α1 Ser485 phosphorylation, and increases basal AMPK activity. In contrast to this, PKC activation reduces AMPK activity in human vascular endothelial cells. Attempts to identify the PKC isoform responsible for inhibiting AMPK activity suggest that it is one (or more) of the Ca2+-regulated DAG-sensitive isoforms of PKC, however cross regulation of PKC isoform expression has limited the present study. Furthermore, AMPK α1 Ser485 phosphorylation was inversely correlated with human muscle insulin sensitivity. As such, enhanced AMPK α1 Ser485 phosphorylation, potentially mediated by increased PKC activation may help explain some of the reduced AMPK activity observed in metabolic disease.

Lifestyle factors, adiposity and cardiometabolic risk factors in South Asian women living in Scotland

South Asians migrating to the Western world have a 3 to 5-fold higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes and double the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) than the background population of White European descent, without exhibiting a proportional higher prevalence of conventional cardiometabolic risk factors. Notably, women of South Asian descent are more likely to be diagnosed with type 2 diabetes as they grow older compared with South Asian men and, in addition, they have lost the cardio-protective effects of being females. Despite South Asian women in Western countries being a high risk group for developing future type 2 diabetes and CVD, they have been largely overlooked. The aims of this thesis were to compare lifestyle factors, body composition and cardiometabolic risk factors in healthy South Asian and European women who reside in Scotland, to examine whether ethnicity modifies the associations between modifiable environmental factors and cardiometabolic risks and to assess whether vascular reactivity is altered by ethnicity or other conventional and novel CVD risks. I conducted a cross-sectional study and recruited 92 women of South Asian and 87 women of White European descent without diagnosed diabetes or CVD. Women on hormone replacement therapy or hormonal contraceptives were excluded too. Age and body mass index (BMI) did not differ between the two ethnic groups. Physical activity was assessed and with self-reported questionnaires and objectively with the use of accelerometers. Cardiorespiratory fitness was quantified with the predicted maximal oxygen uptake (VO2 max) during a submaximal test (Chester step test). Body composition was assessed with skinfolds measured at seven body sites, five body circumferences, measurement of abdominal subcutaneous (SAT) and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) with the use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and liver fat with the use MR spectroscopy. Dietary density was assessed with food frequency questionnaires. Vascular response was assessed by measuring the response to acetylcholine and sodium nitroprusside with the use of Laser Doppler Imaging with Iontophoresis (LDI-ION) and the response to shear stress with the use of Peripheral Arterial Tonometry (EndoPAT). The South Asian women exhibited a metabolic profile consistent with the insulin resistant phenotype, characterised by greater levels of fasting insulin, lower levels of high density lipoprotein (HDL) and higher levels of triglycerides (TG) compared with their European counterparts. In addition, the South Asians had greater levels of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) for any given level of fasting glucose. The South Asian women engaged less time weekly with moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and had lower levels of cardiorespiratory fitness for any given level of physical activity than the women of White descent. In addition, they accumulated more fat centrally for any given BMI. Notably, the South Asians had equivalent SAT with the European women but greater VAT and hepatic fat for any given BMI. Dietary density did not differ among the groups. Increasing central adiposity had the largest effect on insulin resistance in both ethic groups compared with physical inactivity or decreased cardiorespiratory fitness. Interestingly, ethnicity modified the association between central adiposity and insulin resistance index with a similar increase in central adiposity having a substantially larger effect on insulin resistance index in the South Asian women than in the Europeans. I subsequently examined whether ethnic specific thresholds are required for lifestyle modifications and demonstrated that South Asian women need to engage with MVPA for around 195 min.week-1 in order to equate their cardiometabolic risk with that of the Europeans exercising 150 min.week-1. In addition, lower thresholds of abdominal adiposity and BMI should apply for the South Asians compared with the conventional thresholds. Although the South Asians displayed an adverse metabolic profile, vascular reactivity measured with both methods did not differ among the two groups. An additional finding was that menopausal women with hot flushing of both ethnic groups showed a paradoxical vascular profile with enhanced skin perfusion (measured with LDI-ION) but decreased reactive hyperaemia index (measured with EndoPAT) compared with asymptomatic menopausal women. The latter association was independent of conventional CVD risk factors. To conclude, South Asian women without overt disease who live in Scotland display an adverse metabolic profile with steeper associations between lifestyle risk factors and adverse cardiometabolic outcomes compared with their White counterparts. Further work in exploring ethnic specific thresholds in lifestyle interventions or in disease diagnosis is warranted.

Exploring the potential role of allostatic load biomarkers in risk assessment of patients presenting with depressive symptoms

Background: Depression is a major health problem worldwide and the majority of patients presenting with depressive symptoms are managed in primary care. Current approaches for assessing depressive symptoms in primary care are not accurate in predicting future clinical outcomes, which may potentially lead to over or under treatment. The Allostatic Load (AL) theory suggests that by measuring multi-system biomarker levels as a proxy of measuring multi-system physiological dysregulation, it is possible to identify individuals at risk of having adverse health outcomes at a prodromal stage. Allostatic Index (AI) score, calculated by applying statistical formulations to different multi-system biomarkers, have been associated with depressive symptoms. Aims and Objectives: To test the hypothesis, that a combination of allostatic load (AL) biomarkers will form a predictive algorithm in defining clinically meaningful outcomes in a population of patients presenting with depressive symptoms. The key objectives were: 1. To explore the relationship between various allostatic load biomarkers and prevalence of depressive symptoms in patients, especially in patients diagnosed with three common cardiometabolic diseases (Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), Diabetes and Stroke). 2 To explore whether allostatic load biomarkers predict clinical outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms, especially in patients with three common cardiometabolic diseases (CHD, Diabetes and Stroke). 3 To develop a predictive tool to identify individuals with depressive symptoms at highest risk of adverse clinical outcomes. Methods: Datasets used: ‘DepChron’ was a dataset of 35,537 patients with existing cardiometabolic disease collected as a part of routine clinical practice. ‘Psobid’ was a research data source containing health related information from 666 participants recruited from the general population. The clinical outcomes for 3 both datasets were studied using electronic data linkage to hospital and mortality health records, undertaken by Information Services Division, Scotland. Cross-sectional associations between allostatic load biomarkers calculated at baseline, with clinical severity of depression assessed by a symptom score, were assessed using logistic and linear regression models in both datasets. Cox’s proportional hazards survival analysis models were used to assess the relationship of allostatic load biomarkers at baseline and the risk of adverse physical health outcomes at follow-up, in patients with depressive symptoms. The possibility of interaction between depressive symptoms and allostatic load biomarkers in risk prediction of adverse clinical outcomes was studied using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) test. Finally, the value of constructing a risk scoring scale using patient demographics and allostatic load biomarkers for predicting adverse outcomes in depressed patients was investigated using clinical risk prediction modelling and Area Under Curve (AUC) statistics. Key Results: Literature Review Findings. The literature review showed that twelve blood based peripheral biomarkers were statistically significant in predicting six different clinical outcomes in participants with depressive symptoms. Outcomes related to both mental health (depressive symptoms) and physical health were statistically associated with pre-treatment levels of peripheral biomarkers; however only two studies investigated outcomes related to physical health. Cross-sectional Analysis Findings: In DepChron, dysregulation of individual allostatic biomarkers (mainly cardiometabolic) were found to have a non-linear association with increased probability of co-morbid depressive symptoms (as assessed by Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score HADS-D≥8). A composite AI score constructed using five biomarkers did not lead to any improvement in the observed strength of the association. In Psobid, BMI was found to have a significant cross-sectional association with the probability of depressive symptoms (assessed by General Health Questionnaire GHQ-28≥5). BMI, triglycerides, highly sensitive C - reactive 4 protein (CRP) and High Density Lipoprotein-HDL cholesterol were found to have a significant cross-sectional relationship with the continuous measure of GHQ-28. A composite AI score constructed using 12 biomarkers did not show a significant association with depressive symptoms among Psobid participants. Longitudinal Analysis Findings: In DepChron, three clinical outcomes were studied over four years: all-cause death, all-cause hospital admissions and composite major adverse cardiovascular outcome-MACE (cardiovascular death or admission due to MI/stroke/HF). Presence of depressive symptoms and composite AI score calculated using mainly peripheral cardiometabolic biomarkers was found to have a significant association with all three clinical outcomes over the following four years in DepChron patients. There was no evidence of an interaction between AI score and presence of depressive symptoms in risk prediction of any of the three clinical outcomes. There was a statistically significant interaction noted between SBP and depressive symptoms in risk prediction of major adverse cardiovascular outcome, and also between HbA1c and depressive symptoms in risk prediction of all-cause mortality for patients with diabetes. In Psobid, depressive symptoms (assessed by GHQ-28≥5) did not have a statistically significant association with any of the four outcomes under study at seven years: all cause death, all cause hospital admission, MACE and incidence of new cancer. A composite AI score at baseline had a significant association with the risk of MACE at seven years, after adjusting for confounders. A continuous measure of IL-6 observed at baseline had a significant association with the risk of three clinical outcomes- all-cause mortality, all-cause hospital admissions and major adverse cardiovascular event. Raised total cholesterol at baseline was associated with lower risk of all-cause death at seven years while raised waist hip ratio- WHR at baseline was associated with higher risk of MACE at seven years among Psobid participants. There was no significant interaction between depressive symptoms and peripheral biomarkers (individual or combined) in risk prediction of any of the four clinical outcomes under consideration. Risk Scoring System Development: In the DepChron cohort, a scoring system was constructed based on eight baseline demographic and clinical variables to predict the risk of MACE over four years. The AUC value for the risk scoring system was modest at 56.7% (95% CI 55.6 to 57.5%). In Psobid, it was not possible to perform this analysis due to the low event rate observed for the clinical outcomes. Conclusion: Individual peripheral biomarkers were found to have a cross-sectional association with depressive symptoms both in patients with cardiometabolic disease and middle-aged participants recruited from the general population. AI score calculated with different statistical formulations was of no greater benefit in predicting concurrent depressive symptoms or clinical outcomes at follow-up, over and above its individual constituent biomarkers, in either patient cohort. SBP had a significant interaction with depressive symptoms in predicting cardiovascular events in patients with cardiometabolic disease; HbA1c had a significant interaction with depressive symptoms in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes. Peripheral biomarkers may have a role in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms, especially for those with existing cardiometabolic disease, and this merits further investigation.

Conceptualisation, design and development of a primary school based child healthy weight intervention

INTRODUCTION: In common with much of the developed world, Scotland has a severe and well established problem with overweight and obesity in childhood with recent figures demonstrating that 31% of Scottish children aged 2-15 years old were overweight including obese in 2014. This problem is more pronounced in socioeconomically disadvantaged groups and in older children across all economic groups (Scottish Health Survey, 2014). Children who are overweight or obese are at increased risk of a number of adverse health outcomes in the short term and throughout their life course (Lobstein and Jackson-Leach, 2006). The Scottish Government tasked all Scottish Health Boards with developing and delivering child healthy weight interventions to clinically overweight or obese children in an attempt to address this health problem. It is therefore imperative to deliver high quality, affordable, appropriately targeted interventions which can make a sustained impact on children’s lifestyles, setting them up for life as healthy weight adults. This research aimed to inform the design, readiness for application and Health Board suitability of an effective primary school-based curricular child healthy weight intervention. METHODS: the process involved in conceptualising a child healthy weight intervention, developing the intervention, planning for implementation and subsequent evaluation was guided by the PRECEDE-PROCEED Model (Green and Kreuter, 2005) and the Intervention Mapping protocol (Lloyd et al. 2011). RESULTS: The outputs from each stage of the development process were used to formulate a child healthy weight intervention conceptual model then develop plans for delivery and evaluation. DISCUSSION: The Fit for School conceptual model developed through this process has the potential to theoretically modify energy balance related behaviours associated with unhealthy weight gain in childhood. It also has the potential to be delivered at a Health Board scale within current organisational restrictions.