Interacting effects of vegetation, soils and management on the sensitivity of Australian savanna rangelands to climate change

There is an increasing need to understand what makes vegetation at some locations more sensitive to climate change than others. For savanna rangelands, this requires building knowledge of how forage production in different land types will respond to climate change, and identifying how location-specific land type characteristics, climate and land management control the magnitude and direction of its responses to change. Here, a simulation analysis is used to explore how forage production in 14 land types of the north-eastern Australian rangelands responds to three climate change scenarios of +3A degrees C, +17% rainfall; +2A degrees C, -7% rainfall; and +3A degrees C, -46% rainfall. Our results demonstrate that the controls on forage production responses are complex, with functional characteristics of land types interacting to determine the magnitude and direction of change. Forage production may increase by up to 60% or decrease by up to 90% in response to the extreme scenarios of change. The magnitude of these responses is dependent on whether forage production is water or nitrogen (N) limited, and how climate changes influence these limiting conditions. Forage production responds most to changes in temperature and moisture availability in land types that are water-limited, and shows the least amount of change when growth is restricted by N availability. The fertilisation effects of doubled atmospheric CO2 were found to offset declines in forage production under 2A degrees C warming and a 7% reduction in rainfall. However, rising tree densities and declining land condition are shown to reduce potential opportunities from increases in forage production and raise the sensitivity of pastures to climate-induced water stress. Knowledge of these interactions can be applied in engaging with stakeholders to identify adaptation options.

Grazing impacts on the susceptibility of rangelands to wind erosion: The effects of stocking rate, stocking strategy and land condition

An estimated 110 Mt of dust is eroded by wind from the Australian land surface each year, most of which originates from the arid and semi-arid rangelands. Livestock production is thought to increase the susceptibility of the rangelands to wind erosion by reducing vegetation cover and modifying surface soil stability. However, research is yet to quantify the impacts of grazing land management on the erodibility of the Australian rangelands, or determine how these impacts vary among land types and over time. We present a simulation analysis that links a pasture growth and animal production model (GRASP) to the Australian Land Erodibility Model (AUSLEM) to evaluate the impacts of stocking rate, stocking strategy and land condition on the erodibility of four land types in western Queensland, Australia. Our results show that declining land condition, over stocking, and using inflexible stocking strategies have potential to increase land erodibility and amplify accelerated soil erosion. However, land erodibility responses to grazing are complex and influenced by land type sensitivities to different grazing strategies and local climate characteristics. Our simulations show that land types which are more resilient to livestock grazing tend to be least susceptible to accelerated wind erosion. Increases in land erodibility are found to occur most often during climatic transitions when vegetation cover is most sensitive to grazing pressure. However, grazing effects are limited during extreme wet and dry periods when the influence of climate on vegetation cover is strongest. Our research provides the opportunity to estimate the effects of different land management practices across a range of land types, and provides a better understanding of the mechanisms of accelerated erosion resulting from pastoral activities. The approach could help further assessment of land erodibility at a broader scale notably if combined with wind erosion models.

Development of a stable isotope index to assess decadal-scale vegetation change and application to woodlands of the Burdekin catchment, Australia

Forty-four study sites were established in remnant woodland in the Burdekin River catchment in tropical north-east Queensland, Australia, to assess recent (decadal) vegetation change. The aim of this study was further to evaluate whether wide-scale vegetation 'thickening' (proliferation of woody plants in formerly more open woodlands) had occurred during the last century, coinciding with significant changes in land management. Soil samples from several depth intervals were size separated into different soil organic carbon (SOC) fractions, which differed from one another by chemical composition and turnover times. Tropical (C4) grasses dominate in the Burdekin catchment, and thus δ13C analyses of SOC fractions with different turnover times can be used to assess whether the relative proportion of trees (C3) and grasses (C4) had changed over time. However, a method was required to permit standardized assessment of the δ13C data for the individual sites within the 13 Mha catchment, which varied in soil and vegetation characteristics. Thus, an index was developed using data from three detailed study sites and global literature to standardize individual isotopic data from different soil depths and SOC fractions to reflect only the changed proportion of trees (C3) to grasses (C3) over decadal timescales. When applied to the 44 individual sites distributed throughout the Burdekin catchment, 64% of the sites were shown to have experienced decadal vegetation thickening, while 29% had remained stable and the remaining 7% had thinned. Thus, the development of this index enabled regional scale assessment and comparison of decadal vegetation patterns without having to rely on prior knowledge of vegetation changes or aerial photography.

A contemporary assessment of land condition in the Northern Gulf region of Queensland

A framework using assessments of soil condition, pasture composition and woodland density was applied to describe 14 grazing land types as being in A (100% of original carrying capacity), B (75%), C (45%) or D (20%) condition. We assessed the condition of 260 sites, principally along public and some station roads, to provide a benchmark for current land condition. Land types were also assigned relative grazing values between 10 (best) and 0, reflecting soil fertility and potential biomass production. The method identifies particular, 'at-risk' land types for priority investment of resources, while the rationale behind assessments might point to management interventions to improve the condition of those land types. Across all land types, 47% of sites were in A condition, 34% in B condition, 17% in C condition and only 2% in D condition. Seventy-five percent of land types with grazing values >5 were in A or B condition, compared with 88% for those with grazing values ?5. For Georgetown granites, only 27% of sites were in A or B condition, with values for other land types being: alluvials 59%, black soils 64% and red duplex soils 57%, suggesting that improving management of these land types is a priority issue. On land types with high grazing value, the major discounting factor was pasture composition (72% of sites discounted), while increasing woodland density was the main discount (73% of sites discounted) on low grazing value land types.

Estimating crop area using seasonal time series of enhanced vegetation index from MODIS satellite imagery

Cereal grain is one of the main export commodities of Australian agriculture. Over the past decade, crop yield forecasts for wheat and sorghum have shown appreciable utility for industry planning at shire, state, and national scales. There is now an increasing drive from industry for more accurate and cost-effective crop production forecasts. In order to generate production estimates, accurate crop area estimates are needed by the end of the cropping season. Multivariate methods for analysing remotely sensed Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 16-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery within the cropping period (i.e. April-November) were investigated to estimate crop area for wheat, barley, chickpea, and total winter cropped area for a case study region in NE Australia. Each pixel classification method was trained on ground truth data collected from the study region. Three approaches to pixel classification were examined: (i) cluster analysis of trajectories of EVI values from consecutive multi-date imagery during the crop growth period; (ii) harmonic analysis of the time series (HANTS) of the EVI values; and (iii) principal component analysis (PCA) of the time series of EVI values. Images classified using these three approaches were compared with each other, and with a classification based on the single MODIS image taken at peak EVI. Imagery for the 2003 and 2004 seasons was used to assess the ability of the methods to determine wheat, barley, chickpea, and total cropped area estimates. The accuracy at pixel scale was determined by the percent correct classification metric by contrasting all pixel scale samples with independent pixel observations. At a shire level, aggregated total crop area estimates were compared with surveyed estimates. All multi-temporal methods showed significant overall capability to estimate total winter crop area. There was high accuracy at pixel scale (>98% correct classification) for identifying overall winter cropping. However, discrimination among crops was less accurate. Although the use of single-date EVI data produced high accuracy for estimates of wheat area at shire scale, the result contradicted the poor pixel-scale accuracy associated with this approach, due to fortuitous compensating errors. Further studies are needed to extrapolate the multi-temporal approaches to other geographical areas and to improve the lead time for deriving cropped-area estimates before harvest.

Scenario analysis of alternative vegetation management options on the greenhouse gas budget of two grazing businesses in north-eastern Australia

The emerging carbon economy will have a major impact on grazing businesses because of significant livestock methane and land-use change emissions. Livestock methane emissions alone account for similar to 11% of Australia's reported greenhouse gas emissions. Grazing businesses need to develop an understanding of their greenhouse gas impact and be able to assess the impact of alternative management options. This paper attempts to generate a greenhouse gas budget for two scenarios using a spread sheet model. The first scenario was based on one land-type '20-year-old brigalow regrowth' in the brigalow bioregion of southern-central Queensland. The 50 year analysis demonstrated the substantially different greenhouse gas outcomes and livestock carrying capacity for three alternative regrowth management options: retain regrowth (sequester 71.5 t carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare, CO2-e/ha), clear all regrowth (emit 42.8 t CO2-e/ha) and clear regrowth strips (emit 5.8 t CO2-e/ha). The second scenario was based on a 'remnant eucalypt savanna-woodland' land type in the Einasleigh Uplands bioregion of north Queensland. The four alternative vegetation management options were: retain current woodland structure (emit 7.4 t CO2-e/ha), allow woodland to thicken increasing tree basal area (sequester 20.7 t CO2-e/ha), thin trees less than 10 cm diameter (emit 8.9 t CO2-e/ha), and thin trees <20 cm diameter (emit 12.4 t CO2-e/ha). Significant assumptions were required to complete the budgets due to gaps in current knowledge on the response of woody vegetation, soil carbon and non-CO2 soil emissions to management options and land-type at the property scale. The analyses indicate that there is scope for grazing businesses to choose alternative management options to influence their greenhouse gas budget. However, a key assumption is that accumulation of carbon or avoidance of emissions somewhere on a grazing business (e.g. in woody vegetation or soil) will be recognised as an offset for emissions elsewhere in the business (e.g. livestock methane). This issue will be a challenge for livestock industries and policy makers to work through in the coming years.

Land condition monitoring information for reef catchments: a new era

Land condition monitoring information is required for the strategic management of grazing land and for a better understanding of ecosystem processes. Yet, for policy makers and those land managers whose properties are situated within north-eastern Australia's vast Great Barrier Reef catchments, there has been a general lack of geospatial land condition monitoring information. This paper provides an overview of integrated land monitoring activity in rangeland areas of two major Reef catchments in Queensland: the Burdekin and Fitzroy regions. The project aims were to assemble land condition monitoring datasets that would assist grazing land management and support decision-makers investing public funds; and deliver these data to natural resource management(NRM) community groups, which had been given increased responsibility for delivering local environmental outcomes. We describe the rationale and processes used to produce new land condition monitoring datasets derived from remotely sensed Landsat thematic mapper (TM) and high resolution SPOT 5 satellite imagery and from rapid land condition ground assessment. Specific products include subcatchment groundcover change maps, regional mapping of indicative very poor land condition, and stratified land condition site summaries. Their application, integration, and limitations are discussed. The major innovation is a better understanding of NRM issues with respect to land condition across vast regional areas, and the effective transfer of decision-making capacity to the local level. Likewise, with an increased ability to address policy questions from an evidence-based position, combined with increased cooperation between community, industry and all levels of government, a new era has emerged for decision-makers in rangeland management.

Reassessing spatial and temporal dynamics of kangaroo populations

Long-running datasets from aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus giganteus, Macropus [uliginosus, Macropus robustus and Macropus rufus) across Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia have been analysed, seeking better predictors of rates of increase which would allow aerial surveys to be undertaken less frequently than annually. Early models of changes in kangaroo numbers in response to rainfall had shown great promise, but much variability. We used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) instead, reasoning that changes in pasture condition would provide a better predictor than rainfall. However, except at a fine scale, NDVI proved no better; although two linked periods of rainfall proved useful predictors of rates of increase, this was only in some areas for some species. The good correlations reported in earlier studies were a consequence of data dominated by large droughtinduced adult mortality, whereas over a longer time frame and where changes between years are less dramatic, juvenile survival has the strongest influence on dynamics. Further, harvesting, density dependence and competition with domestic stock are additional and important influences and it is now clear that kangaroo movement has a greater influence on population dynamics than had been assumed. Accordingly, previous conclusions about kangaroo populations as simple systems driven by rainfall need to be reassessed. Examination of this large dataset has permitted descriptions of shifts in distribution of three species across eastern Australia, changes in dispersion in response to rainfall, and an evaluation of using harvest statistics as an index of density and harvest rate. These results have been combined into a risk assessment and decision theory framework to identify optimal monitoring strategies.

Resource Assessment of the Tidal Wetland Vegetation of Western Cape York Peninsula, North Queensland, Report to Ocean Rescue 2000

A project to allow the resource assessment of tidal wetland vegetation of western Cape York Peninsula, in north Queensland, was undertaken as part of the longterm assessment of the coastal fisheries resources of Queensland. The project incorporated a littoral invertebrate fauna component. Extending from May 1993 to December 1994, fieldwork was undertaken in May 1993, November 1993 and April 1994. The aims of this project were to: • obtain baseline information on the distribution of marine plants of western Cape York Peninsula; • commence a preliminary assessment of the littoral invertebrate fauna and their habitat requirements with a view to extending knowledge of their biogeographic affinities; • perform biogeographic classification of the tidal wetlands at a meso and local scale for marine conservation planning; • evaluate the conservation values of the areas investigated from the viewpoint of fisheries productivity and as habitat for important/threatened species. Dataset URL Link: Queensland Coastal Wetlands Resources Mapping data. [Dataset]

Marine Vegetation of Cape York Peninsula. Cape York Peninsula Land Use Strategy, Office of Co-ordinator General of Queensland, Brisbane, Department of the Environment, Sport and Territories, Canberra

The Cape York Peninsula Land Use Strategy (CYPLUS) is a joint Queensland/Commonwealth initiative to provide a framework for making decisions about how to use and manage the natural resources of Cape York Peninsula in ways that will be ecologically sustainable. As part of the Natural Resources Analysis Program (NRAP) of CYPLUS, the Fisheries Division of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries has mapped the marine vegetation (mangroves and seagrasses) for Cape York Peninsula. The project ran from July 1992 to June 1994. Field work was undertaken in November 1992, May 1993, and April 1994. Final report on project: NRO6 – Marine Plan (Seagrass/Mangrove) Distribution. Dataset URL Link: Queensland Coastal Wetlands Resources Mapping data. [Dataset]

Spelling strategies for recovery of pasture condition

This work will progess and extend recommendations and guidelines for use of integrated wet season spelling in Queenslands savannahs and woodlands. The research will generate a greater ecological and pasture production understanding of pastures and soils that exist in C land condition areas (major landtypes), and their recovery. Practical, cost-effective spelling regimes will be developed. Research will be conducted on-property with small plot exclosures and plots with controlled utilisation levels, examining ecological responses to different spelling regimes. This information will improve bio-economic modelling capacity. Industry consultations with producers and field staff will drive implementation of the recommendations arising.

Biodiversity condition assessment for grazing lands

Using the ABCD Framework as a aurrogate for biodiversity condition.

Possible impacts of the invasive plant Rubus niveus on the native vegetation of the Scalesia Forest in the Galapagos Islands

Originally from Asia, Rubus niveus has become one of the most widespread invasive plant species in the Galapagos Islands. It has invaded open vegetation, shrubland and forest alike. It forms dense thickets up to 4 m high, appearing to displace native vegetation, and threaten the integrity of several native communities. This study used correlation analysis between a R. niveus cover gradient and a number of biotic (vascular plant species richness, cover and vegetation structure) and abiotic (light and soil properties) parameters to help understand possible impacts in one of the last remaining fragments of the Scalesia forest in Santa Cruz Island, Galapagos. Higher cover of R. niveus was associated with significantly lower native species richness and cover, and a different forest structure. Results illustrated that 60% R. niveus cover could be considered a threshold for these impacts. We suggest that a maximum of 40% R. niveus cover could be a suitable management target.

Liveweight prediction from hip height, condition score, fetal age and breed in tropical female cattle

Hip height, body condition, subcutaneous fat, eye muscle area, percentage Bos taurus, fetal age and diet digestibility data were collected at 17 372 assessments on 2181 Brahman and tropical composite (average 28% Brahman) female cattle aged between 0.5 and 7.5 years of age at five sites across Queensland. The study validated the subtraction of previously published estimates of gravid uterine weight to correct liveweight to the non-pregnant status. Hip height and liveweight were linearly related (Brahman: P<0.001, R-2 = 58%; tropical composite P<0.001, R-2 = 67%). Liveweight varied by 12-14% per body condition score (5-point scale) as cows differed from moderate condition (P<0.01). Parallel effects were also found due to subcutaneous rump fat depth and eye muscle area, which were highly correlated with each other and body condition score (r = 0.7-0.8). Liveweight differed from average by 1.65-1.66% per mm of rump fat depth and 0.71-0.76% per cm(2) of eye muscle area (P<0.01). Estimated dry matter digestibility of pasture consumed had no consistent effect in predicting liveweight and was therefore excluded from final models. A method developed to estimate full liveweight of post-weaning age female beef cattle from the other measures taken predicted liveweight to within 10 and 23% of that recorded for 65 and 95% of cases, respectively. For a 95% chance of predicted group average liveweight (body condition score used) being within 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1% of actual group average liveweight required 23, 36, 62, 137 and 521 females, respectively, if precision and accuracy of measurements matches that used in the research. Non-pregnant Bos taurus female cattle were calculated to be 10-40% heavier than Brahmans at the same hip height and body condition, indicating a substantial conformational difference. The liveweight prediction method was applied to a validation population of 83 unrelated groups of cattle weighed in extensive commercial situations on 119 days over 18 months (20 917 assessments). Liveweight prediction in the validation population exceeded average recorded liveweight for weigh groups by an average of 19 kg (similar to 6%) demonstrating the difficulty of achieving accurate and precise animal measurements under extensive commercial grazing conditions.

The effect of long-term repeated burning and fire exclusion on above- and below-ground Blackbutt (Eucalyptus pilularis) forest vegetation assemblages

We used a long-term fire experiment in south-east Queensland, Australia, to determine the effects of frequent prescribed burning and fire exclusion on understorey vegetation (<7.5 m) richness and density in Eucalyptus pilularis forest. Our study provided a point in time assessment of the standing vegetation and soil-stored vegetation at two experimental sites with treatments of biennial burning, quadrennial burning since 19711972 and no burning since 1969. Vegetation composition, density and richness of certain plant groups in the standing and soil-stored vegetation were influenced by fire treatments. The density of resprouting plants <3 m in height was higher in the biennially burnt treatment than in the unburnt treatment, but resprouters 37.5 m in height were absent from the biennial burning treatment. Obligate seeder richness and density in the standing vegetation was not significantly influenced by the fire treatments, but richness of this plant group in the seed bank was higher in the quadrennial treatment at one site and in the long unburnt treatment at the other site. Long unburnt treatments had an understorey of rainforest species, while biennial burning at one site and quadrennial burning at the other site were associated with greater standing grass density relative to the unburnt treatment. This difference in vegetation composition due to fire regime potentially influences the flammability of the standing understorey vegetation. Significant interactions between fire regime and site, apparent in the standing and soil-stored vegetation, demonstrate the high degree of natural variability in vegetation community responses to fire regimes.