A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

The sensitivity of updated NIR PLS models for fruit sorting to initial parameter settings

Partial least squares regression models on NIR spectra are often optimised (for wavelength range, mathematical pretreatment and outlier elimination) in terms of calibration terms of validation performance with reference to totally independent populations.

Sustainable Grazing in the Channel Country Floodplains (phase 2) : A technical report on findings between March 2003 and June 2006

‘Sustainable Grazing in the Channel Country Floodplains’ was initiated by industry to redress the lack of objective information for sustainable management in the floodplains of Cooper Creek and the Diamantina and Georgina Rivers. The project has maintained links with the grazing community and has extensively drawn upon expert local experience and knowledge. The project has provided tools for managers to better anticipate the size of beneficial flooding arising from rains in the upper catchment and to more objectively assess the value of the pasture resulting from flooding. The latest information from the project has enabled customisation of the EDGENetwork™ Grazing Land Management training package for the Channel Country. In combination, these tools will assist in making earlier cattle stocking decisions, including when cattle may need to be mustered out of floodplain paddocks, how many additional cattle will be required to take advantage of the flood–grown pasture, and the timing of cattle turnoff. These will reduce costs by providing a greater lead time to plan cattle movements and purchases, and may enhance the sustainability of the resource base by better matching cattle numbers with the feed on offer.

Late Autumn Winter Spring strawberries for profit and consumer appeal

Improved cultivar.

: Parasitoids of the painted apple moth Teia anartoides Walker (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) in Australia.

Painted apple moth Teia anartoides Walker (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), a native to Australia, was discovered in Auckland, New Zealand in late 1999 and eradicated by 2006. It was recognised in 2002 that biological control would be the most effective long-term control strategy if eradication was unsuccessful, and a search was initiated for potential biocontrol agents in Australia. In 2003, autumn and spring surveys were undertaken in Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia of the guild of parasitoid natural enemies of T. anartoides. Eggs, larvae and pupae were collected and held to rear out any parasitoids. In addition, localised searches were made in Queensland in late 2003 early 2004 and laboratory-reared juvenile stages of T. anartoides were released for recapture in both Victoria and Queensland. Acacia dealbata Link (Fabales: Fabaceae) was the main plant from which T. anartoides was recovered, followed by apple. Most T. anartoides samples were collected from Victoria and Tasmania. Eighteen species from 13 genera of egg, larval and pupal parasitoids were reared and included Diptera (Tachinidae) and Hymenoptera (Braconidae, Encyrtidae, Eulophidae and Ichneumonidae). Of the seven Hymenopteran genera recovered from the larval stage, the most common in Victoria and Tasmania was a previously unidentified larval parasitoid Cotesia Cameron (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) sp. Echthromorpha intricatoria (Fabricius) (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) was the dominant pupal parasitoid. The survey showed that the parasitoid complex associated with T anartoides is structurally very similar to that on other pest Lymantriidae in the northern hemisphere such as gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae). Meteorus pulchricornis (Wesmael) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) was recorded for the first time in Australia.

Seasonal abundance of thrips (Thysanoptera) in capsicum and chilli crops in south-east Queensland, Australia

Thrips can be important pests of capsicum and chilli crops, causing damage through their feeding and by vectoring viral diseases. As different species vary in their ability to transmit viruses and in their susceptibility to insecticides, it is important to know which species are present in a crop. The seasonal occurrence of thrips in capsicum and chilli crops in the Bundaberg district of south-east Queensland was investigated from July 2002 to June 2003. Fifty flowers were collected weekly from crops on seven farms and the adult thrips extracted and identified. Thrips palmi Karny and Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) were collected in the greatest numbers, with T. palmi predominant in autumn crops (March to July) and F. occidentalis predominant in spring crops (August to November). Pseudanaphothrips achaetus (Bagnall) was common, while Thrips tabaci Lindeman, Thrips imaginis Bagnall and Frankliniella schultzei (Trybom) were collected in low numbers.

Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

Baobabopsis, a new genus of graminicolous downy mildews from tropical Australia, with an updated key to the genera of downy mildews

So far 19 genera of downy mildews have been described, of which seven are parasitic to grasses. Here, we introduce a new genus, Baobabopsis, to accommodate two distinctive downy mildews, B. donbarrettii sp. nov., collected on Perotis rara in northern Australia, and B. enneapogonis sp. nov., collected on Enneapogon spp. in western and central Australia. Baobabopsis donbarrettii produced both oospores and sporangiospores that are morphologically distinct from other downy mildews on grasses. Molecular phylogenetic analyses showed that the two species of Baobabopsis occupied an isolated position among the known genera of graminicolous downy mildews. The importance of the Poaceae for the evolution of downy mildews is highlighted by the observation that more than a third of the known genera of downy mildews occur on grasses, while more than 90 % of the known species of downy mildews infect eudicots.