20 resultados para uncertain polynomials

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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The phenolic ellagic acid (EA) is receiving increasing attention for its nutritional and pharmacological potential as an antioxidant and antimicrobial agent. The Australian native Kakadu plum (Terminalia ferdinandiana) fruit is an abundant source of this phytochemical. The fruit also contains large amounts of vitamin C (mainly as ascorbic acid, AA) and possibly the undesirable oxalic acid (OA). Regular consumption of high oxalate foods poses a variety of health risks in humans including interference with calcium absorption and kidney stone formation. Oxalate is also the end-product of AA metabolism so that consumption of fruit with heightened AA content has the potential to elevate urinary oxalate levels. The aims of this study were to investigate the distribution of EA and the presence of other bioactives in other Kakadu plum tissues. Chemical analysis of Kakadu plum fruit and leaves for EA (free and total), OA (water-soluble and total), calcium (Ca) and AA indicated that EA and AA concentrations were high in the fruit while the leaves had significantly higher EA levels but little or no detectable AA. OA content in fruit and leaves was substantial with the fruit being placed in the high-Oxalate category. These findings suggest that there is potential to elevate oxalate levels in the urine of susceptible people and intake of fruit-derived products should be closely monitored. By measuring tissues collected from specific trees, high EA-producing or low OA-containing individuals were identified.

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Objective: To describe the clinical signs, gross pathology, serology, bacteriology, histopathology, electron microscopy and immunohistochemistry findings associated with toxoplasmosis in four Indo-Pacific humpbacked dolphins (Sousa chinensis) that stranded in Queensland in 2000 and 2001. Design: Clinical assessment, gross necropsy, and laboratory examinations. Procedure: Necropsies were performed on four S chinensis to determine cause of death. Laboratory tests including serology, bacteriology, histopathology and transmission electron microscopy were done on the four dolphins. lmmunohistochemistry was done on the brain, heart, liver, lung, spleen and adrenal gland from various dolphins to detect Toxoplasma gondii antigens. Results: Necropsies showed all of four S chinensis that stranded in Queensland in 2000 and 2001 had evidence of predatory shark attack and three were extremely emaciated. Histopathological examinations showed all four dolphins had toxoplasmosis with tissue cysts resembling T gondii in the brain. Tachyzoite stages of T gondii were detected in the lungs, heart, liver, spleen and adrenal gland, variously of all four dolphins. Electron microscopy studies and immunohistochemistry confirmed the tissues cysts were those of Tgondii. All four dolphins also had intercurrent disease including pneumonia, three had peritonitis and one had pancreatitis. Conclusion: Four S chinensis necropsied in Queensland in 2000 and 2001 were found to be infected with toxoplasmosis. It is uncertain how these dolphins became infected and further studies are needed to determine how S chinensis acquire toxoplasmosis. All four dolphins stranded after periods of heavy rainfall, and coastal freshwater runoff may be a risk factor for T gondii infection in S chinensis. This disease should be of concern to wildlife managers since S chinensis is a rare species and its numbers appear to be declining.

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Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

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Data on catch sizes, catch rates, length-frequency and age composition from the Australian east coast tailor fishery are analysed by three different population dynamic models: a surplus production model, an age-structured model, and a model in which the population is structured by both age and length. The population is found to be very heavily exploited, with its ability to reproduce dependent on the fishery’s incomplete selectivity of one-year-old fish. Estimates of recent harvest rates (proportion of fish available to the fishery that are actually caught in a single year) are over 80%. It is estimated that only 30–50% of one-year-old fish are available to the fishery. Results from the age-length-structured model indicate that both exploitable biomass (total mass of fish selected by the fishery) and egg production have fallen to about half the levels that prevailed in the 1970s, and about 40% of virgin levels. Two-year-old fish appear to have become smaller over the history of the fishery. This is assumed to be due to increased fishing pressure combined with non-selectivity of small one-year-old fish, whereby the one-year-old fish that survive fishing are small and grow into small two-year-old fish the following year. An alternative hypothesis is that the stock has undergone a genetic change towards smaller fish; the true explanation is unknown. The instantaneous natural mortality rate of tailor is hypothesised to be higher than previously thought, with values between 0.8 and 1.3 yr–1 consistent with the models. These values apply only to tailor up to about three years of age, and it is possible that a lower value applies to fish older than three. The analysis finds no evidence that fishing pressure has yet affected recruitment. If a recruitment downturn were to occur, however, under current management and fishing pressure there is a strong chance that the fishery would need a complete closure for several years to recover, and even then recovery would be uncertain. Therefore it is highly desirable to better protect the spawning stock. The major recommendations are • An increase in the minimum size limit from 30cm to 40cm in order to allow most one-year-old fish to spawn, and • An experiment on discard mortality to gauge the proportion of fish between 30cm and 40cm that are likely to survive being caught and released by recreational line fishers (the dominant component of the fishery, currently harvesting roughly 1000t p.a. versus about 200t p.a. from the commercial fishery).

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Scarab species associated with groundnuts were surveyed in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, southern India, between 1995 and 2001. Scarab adults were collected from trees on which they were feeding and/or mating, and larvae (white grubs) from groundnut fields. Holotrichia species, especially H. reynaudi and H. serrata were the major species associated with groundnut. H. reynaudi predominated in the central Deccan area, while H. serrata was most abundant in areas to the south and west. A new, undescribed, Holotrichia species near H. consanguinea was collected south and south-west of Hyderabad in mixed populations with H. reynaudi. However, the full extent of this new species’ distribution remains uncertain. H. rufoflava was rarely associated with groundnut, but was common as an adult at some locations. Other genera encountered during surveys were Anomala, Adoretus, Schizonycha, Autoserica. In survey data, densities of Holotrichia larvae and ‘all other white grubs’ were both very highly correlated with % of damaged groundnut plants. These correlations in combination with concurrent observations of plant damage establish a causal link between white grubs and plant damage and death in southern Indian groundnut. Ranking of preferred host trees for adults were developed from field observations for four Holotrichia species and Schizonycha spp. and will assist grower-initiated surveys of pest occurrence. In combination with insecticide efficacy data published elsewhere, the survey provides the basis for an environmentally friendly and economically viable pest-management system for white grubs on groundnut in southern India.

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Aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus spp.) in Queensland are used to make economically important judgements on the levels of viable commercial harvest. Previous analysis methods for aerial kangaroo surveys have used both mark-recapture methodologies and conventional distance-sampling analyses. Conventional distance sampling has the disadvantage that detection is assumed to be perfect on the transect line, while mark-recapture methods are notoriously sensitive to problems with unmodelled heterogeneity in capture probabilities. We introduce three methodologies for combining together mark-recapture and distance-sampling data, aimed at exploiting the strengths of both methodologies and overcoming the weaknesses. Of these methods, two are based on the assumption of full independence between observers in the mark-recapture component, and this appears to introduce more bias in density estimation than it resolves through allowing uncertain trackline detection. Both of these methods give lower density estimates than conventional distance sampling, indicating a clear failure of the independence assumption. The third method, termed point independence, appears to perform very well, giving credible density estimates and good properties in terms of goodness-of-fit and percentage coefficient of variation. Estimated densities of eastern grey kangaroos range from 21 to 36 individuals km-2, with estimated coefficients of variation between 11% and 14% and estimated trackline detection probabilities primarily between 0.7 and 0.9.

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The Queensland Great Barrier Reef line fishery in Australia is regulated via a range of input and output controls including minimum size limits, daily catch limits and commercial catch quotas. As a result of these measures a substantial proportion of the catch is released or discarded. The fate of these released fish is uncertain, but hook-related mortality can potentially be decreased by using hooks that reduce the rates of injury, bleeding and deep hooking. There is also the potential to reduce the capture of non-target species though gear selectivity. A total of 1053 individual fish representing five target species and three non-target species were caught using six hook types including three hook patterns (non-offset circle, J and offset circle), each in two sizes (small 4/0 or 5/0 and large 8/0). Catch rates for each of the hook patterns and sizes varied between species with no consistent results for target or non-target species. When data for all of the fish species were aggregated there was a trend for larger hooks, J hooks and offset circle hooks to cause a greater number of injuries. Using larger hooks was more likely to result in bleeding, although this trend was not statistically significant. Larger hooks were also more likely to foul-hook fish or hook fish in the eye. There was a reduction in the rates of injuries and bleeding for both target and non-target species when using the smaller hook sizes. For a number of species included in our study the incidence of deep hooking decreased when using non-offset circle hooks, however, these results were not consistent for all species. Our results highlight the variability in hook performance across a range of tropical demersal finfish species. The most obvious conservation benefits for both target and non-target species arise from using smaller sized hooks and non-offset circle hooks. Fishers should be encouraged to use these hook configurations to reduce the potential for post-release mortality of released fish.

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The effects of inorganic amendments (fertilisers and pesticides) on soil biota that are reported in the scientific literature are, to say the least, variable. Though there is clear evidence that certain products can have significant impacts, the effects can be positive or negative. This is not surprising when you consider the number of organisms and amount of different functional groups, the number of products and various rates at which they could be applied, the methods of application and the environmental differences that occur in soil at a micro scale (within centimetres) in a paddock, let alone between paddocks, farms, catchments, regions etc. It therefore becomes extremely difficult to draw definitive conclusions from the reported results in order to summarise the impacts of these inputs. Several research trials and review papers have been published on this subject and most similarly conclude that the implications of many of the effects are still uncertain.

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To determine the cause of exceptionally high mortality (41.4%) in perinatal calves on a beef cattle property 50 km south-west of Julia Creek in north-western Queensland. Investigations were based on clinical assessment of affected calves and laboratory analysis of pre- and postmortem specimens taken from 12 calves aged from 6 to 36 h of age. Associations between gross and histopathological findings and biochemical analyses conducted on serum and tissue samples were examined in relation to clinical observations. Clinical signs varied, but commonly included mild to severe ataxia, difficulty finding a teat and sucking, blindness (partial or complete, as judged by avoidance of obstacles) and depression with prominent drooping of the head. Gross and histopathological findings included herniation of the cerebellar vermis through the foramen magnum, squamous metaplasia of interlobular ducts in the parotid salivary glands and Wallerian degeneration of the optic nerves. Biochemical analysis of serum and liver samples available from four of the calves revealed low or undetectable levels of both vitamin A and vitamin E. Although vitamin E is known to have a sparing effect on vitamin A, the role (if any) played by deficiency of this vitamin was uncertain. The combination of clinical signs, postmortem findings, histopathological features and biochemical findings indicate that gestational vitamin A deficiency was highly likely to have been an important contributor to perinatal calf mortalities in this herd.

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Chytridiomycosis is an emerging infectious disease of amphibians caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, and its role in causing population declines and species extinctions worldwide has created an urgent need for methods to detect it. Several reports indicate that in anurans chytridiomycosis can cause the depigmentation of tadpole tnouthparts, but the accuracy of using depigmentation to determine disease status remains uncertain. Our objective was to determine for the Mountain Yellow-legged Frog (Rana muscosa) whether visual inspections of the extent of tadpole mouthpart depigmentation could be used to accurately categorize individual tadpoles or R. muscosa populations as B. dendrobatidis-positive or negative. This was accomplished by assessing the degree of mouthpart depigmentation in tadpoles of known disease status (based on PCR assays). The depigmentation of R. muscosa tadpole mouthparts was associated with the presence of B. dendrobatidis, and this association was particularly strong for upper jaw sheaths. Using a rule that classifies tadpoles with upper jaw sheaths that are 100% pigmented as uninfected and those with jaw sheaths that are <100% pigmented as infected resulted in the infection status of 86% of the tadpoles being correctly classified. By applying this rule to jaw sheath pigmentation scores averaged across all tadpoles inspected per site, we were able to correctly categorize the infection status of 92% of the study populations. Similar research on additional anurans is critically needed to determine how broadly applicable our results for R. muscosa are to other species.

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Promotion of better procedures for releasing undersize fish, advocacy of catch-and-release angling, and changing minimum legal sizes are increasingly being used as tools for sustainable management of fish stocks. However without knowing the proportion of released fish that survive, the conservation value of any of these measures is uncertain. We developed a floating vertical enclosure to estimate short-term survival of released line-caught tropical and subtropical reef-associated species, and used it to compare the effectiveness of two barotrauma-relief procedures (venting and shotline releasing) on red emperor (Lutjanus sebae). Barotrauma signs varied with capture depth, but not with the size of the fish. Fish from the greatest depths (40-52 m) exhibited extreme signs less frequently than did those from intermediate depths (30-40 m), possibly as a result of swim bladder gas being vented externally through a rupture in the body wall. All but two fish survived the experiment, and as neither release technique significantly improved short-term survival of the red emperor over non-treatment we see little benefit in promoting either venting or shotline releasing for this comparatively resilient species. Floating vertical enclosures can improve short-term post-release mortality estimates as they overcome many problems encountered when constraining fish in submerged cages.

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The proposed simplified Integrated Sugar Production Process (ISPP) using membrane technology would allow the sugar industry to produce new product streams and higher quality mill sugar with increased sugar extraction efficiency. Membrane filtration technology has proven to be a technically sound process to increase sugar quality. However commercial viability has been uncertain partly because the benefits to crystallisation and sugar quality have not outweighed the increased processing cost. This simplified ISPP produces additional value-added liquid streams to make the membrane fractionation process more financially viable and improve the profitability of sugar manufacture. An experimental study used pilot scale membrane fractionation of clarified mill juice confirmed the technical feasibility of separating inorganic salt and antioxidant rich fractions from cane juice. The paper presents details on the compositions of the liquid streams along with their potential uses, values and challenges in getting these products out to market.

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This project focussed on the phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) status of northern cropping soils. Stores of P and K have been depleted by crop removal and limited fertiliser application, with depletion most significant in the subsoil. Soil testing strategies are confounded by slowly available mineral reserves with uncertain availability. The utility of new soil tests was assessed to measure these reserves, their availability to plants quantified and a regional sampling strategy undertaken to identify areas of greatest P and K deficit. Fertiliser application strategies for P and K have been tested and the interactions between these and other nutrients have been determined in a large field program.

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The proposed simplified Integrated Sugar Production Process (ISPP) using membrane technology would allow the sugar industry to produce new product streams and higher quality mill sugar with increased sugar extraction efficiency. Membrane filtration technology has proven to be a technically sound process to increase sugar quality. However commercial viability has been uncertain partly because the benefits to crystallisation and sugar quality have not outweighed the increased processing cost. This simplified ISPP produces additional value-added liquid streams to make the membrane fractionation process more financially viable and improve the profitability of sugar manufacture. An experimental study used pilot scale membrane fractionation of clarified mill juice confirmed the technical feasibility of separating inorganic salt and antioxidant rich fractions from cane juice. The paper presents details on the compositions of the liquid streams along with their potential uses, values and challenges in getting these products out to market. This paper was presented at the 2010 Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists annual conference.

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A case study was undertaken to determine the economic impact of a change in management class as detailed in the A, B, C and D management class framework. This document focuses on the implications of changing from D to C, C to B and B to A class management in the Burdekin River irrigation area (BRIA) and if the change is worthwhile from an economic perspective. This report provides a guide to the economic impact that may be expected when undertaking a particular change in farming practices and will ultimately lead to more informed decisions being made by key industry stakeholders. It is recognised that these management classes have certain limitations and in many cases the grouping of practices may not be reflective of the real situation. The economic case study is based on the A, B, C and D management class framework for water quality improvement developed in 2007/2008 for the Burdekin natural resource management region. The framework for the Burdekin is currently being updated to clarify some issues and incorporate new knowledge since the earlier version of the framework. However, this updated version is not yet complete and so the Paddock to Reef project has used the most current available version of the framework for the modelling and economics. As part of the project specification, sugarcane crop production data for the BRIA was provided by the APSIM model. The information obtained from the APSIM crop modelling programme included sugarcane yields and legume grain yield (legume grain yield only applies to A class management practice). Because of the complexity involved in the economic calculations, a combination of the FEAT, PiRisk and a custom made spreadsheet was used for the economic analysis. Figures calculated in the FEAT program were transferred to the custom made spreadsheet to develop a discounted cash flow analysis. The marginal cash flow differences for each farming system were simulated over a 5-year and 10-year planning horizon to determine the net present value of changing across different management practices. PiRisk was used to test uncertain parameters in the economic analysis and the potential risk associated with a change in value.