Mixture of time-dependent growth models with an application to blue swimmer crab length-frequency data

Understanding how aquatic species grow is fundamental in fisheries because stock assessment often relies on growth dependent statistical models. Length-frequency-based methods become important when more applicable data for growth model estimation are either not available or very expensive. In this article, we develop a new framework for growth estimation from length-frequency data using a generalized von Bertalanffy growth model (VBGM) framework that allows for time-dependent covariates to be incorporated. A finite mixture of normal distributions is used to model the length-frequency cohorts of each month with the means constrained to follow a VBGM. The variances of the finite mixture components are constrained to be a function of mean length, reducing the number of parameters and allowing for an estimate of the variance at any length. To optimize the likelihood, we use a minorization–maximization (MM) algorithm with a Nelder–Mead sub-step. This work was motivated by the decline in catches of the blue swimmer crab (BSC) (Portunus armatus) off the east coast of Queensland, Australia. We test the method with a simulation study and then apply it to the BSC fishery data.

Quantifying nitrous oxide emissions from sugarcane cropping systems : Optimum sampling time and frequency

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from soil are often measured using the manual static chamber method. Manual gas sampling is labour intensive, so a minimal sampling frequency that maintains the accuracy of measurements would be desirable. However, the high temporal (diurnal, daily and seasonal) variabilities of N2O emissions can compromise the accuracy of measurements if not addressed adequately when formulating a sampling schedule. Assessments of sampling strategies to date have focussed on relatively low emission systems with high episodicity, where a small number of the highest emission peaks can be critically important in the measurement of whole season cumulative emissions. Using year-long, automated sub-daily N2O measurements from three fertilised sugarcane fields, we undertook an evaluation of the optimum gas sampling strategies in high emission systems with relatively long emission episodes. The results indicated that sampling in the morning between 09:00–12:00, when soil temperature was generally close to the daily average, best approximated the daily mean N2O emission within 4–7% of the ‘actual’ daily emissions measured by automated sampling. Weekly sampling with biweekly sampling for one week after >20 mm of rainfall was the recommended sampling regime. It resulted in no extreme (>20%) deviations from the ‘actuals’, had a high probability of estimating the annual cumulative emissions within 10% precision, with practicable sampling numbers in comparison to other sampling regimes. This provides robust and useful guidance for manual gas sampling in sugarcane cropping systems, although further adjustments by the operators in terms of expected measurement accuracy and resource availability are encouraged. By implementing these sampling strategies together, labour inputs and errors in measured cumulative N2O emissions can be minimised. Further research is needed to quantify the spatial variability of N2O emissions within sugarcane cropping and to develop techniques for effectively addressing both spatial and temporal variabilities simultaneously.

Resistance to phosphine in Sitophilus oryzae in Australia: A national analysis of trends and frequencies over time and geographical spread

In Australia, along with many other parts of the world, fumigation with phosphine is a vital component in controlling stored grain insect pests. However, resistance is a factor that may limit the continued efficacy of this fumigant. While strong resistance to phosphine has been identified and characterised, very little information is available on the causes of its development and spread. Data obtained from a unique national resistance monitoring and management program were analysed, using Bayesian hurdle modelling, to determine which factors may be responsible. Fumigation in unsealed storages, combined with a high frequency of weak resistance, were found to be the main criteria that led to the development of strong resistance in Sitophilus oryzae. Independent development, rather than gene flow via migration, appears to be primarily responsible for the geographic incidence of strong resistance to phosphine in S. oryzae. This information can now be utilised to direct resources and education into those areas at high risk and to refine phosphine resistance management strategies.