The reliability of supply of feed grains in the northern region

Reliability of supply of feed grain has become a high priority issue for industry in the northern region. Expansion by major intensive livestock and industrial users of grain, combined with high inter-annual variability in seasonal conditions, has generated concern in the industry about reliability of supply. This paper reports on a modelling study undertaken to analyse the reliability of supply of feed grain in the northern region. Feed grain demand was calculated for major industries (cattle feedlots, pigs, poultry, dairy) based on their current size and rate of grain usage. Current demand was estimated to be 2.8Mt. With the development of new industrial users (ethanol) and by projecting the current growth rate of the various intensive livestock industries, it was estimated that demand would grow to 3.6Mt in three years time. Feed grain supply was estimated using shire scale yield prediction models for wheat and sorghum that had been calibrated against recent ABS production data. Other crops that contribute to a lesser extent to the total feed grain pool (barley, maize) were included by considering their production relative to the major winter and summer grains, with estimates based on available production records. This modelling approach allowed simulation of a 101-year time series of yield that showed the extent of the impact of inter-annual climate variability on yield levels. Production estimates were developed from this yield time series by including planted crop area. Area planted data were obtained from ABS and ABARE records. Total production amounts were adjusted to allow for any export and end uses that were not feed grain (flour, malt etc). The median feed grain supply for an average area planted was about 3.1Mt, but this varied greatly from year to year depending on seasonal conditions and area planted. These estimates indicated that supply would not meet current demand in about 30% of years if a median area crop were planted. Two thirds of the years with a supply shortfall were El Nino years. This proportion of years was halved (i.e. 15%) if the area planted increased to that associated with the best 10% of years. Should demand grow as projected in this study, there would be few years where it could be met if a median crop area was planted. With area planted similar to the best 10% of years, there would still be a shortfall in nearly 50% of all years (and 80% of El Nino years). The implications of these results on supply/demand and risk management and investment in research and development are briefly discussed.

The effects of holding space on growth and survival of individually reared three-spot crab (Portunus sanguinolentus).

The problem of cannibalism in communally reared crabs can be eliminated by separating the growing crabs into holding compartments. There is currently no information on optimal compartment size for growing crabs individually. 136 second instar crablets (Portunus sanguinolentus) (C2 ca. 7-10 mm carapace width (CW)) were grown for 90 days in 10 different-sized opaque and transparent walled acrylic compartments. The base area for each compartment ranged from small (32 mm × 32 mm) to large (176 mm × 176 mm). Effects of holding space and wall transparency on survival, CW, moult increment, intermoult period and average weekly gain (AWG) were examined. Most crabs reached instars C9-C10 (50-70 mm CW) by the end of experiment. The final survival rate in the smallest compartment was 25% mainly due to moult-related mortality predominantly occurring at the C9 instar. However, crabs in these smaller compartments had earlier produced significantly larger moult increments from instar to instar than those in the larger compartments (P < 0.05). Crabs in the smaller compartments (<65 mm × 65 mm) also showed significantly longer moult periods (P < 0.05). The net result was that AWG in CW was 5.22 mm week-1 for the largest compartment and 5.15 mm week-1 in smallest and did not differ significantly between compartment size groups (P = 0.916). Wall transparency had no impact on survival (P = 0.530) but a slight impact on AWG (P = 0.014). Survival rate was the best indicator of minimum acceptable compartment size (?43 mm × 43 mm) for C10 crablets because below this size death occurred before growth rate was significantly affected. For further growth, it would be necessary to transfer the crablets to larger compartments.

Variable growth rates of the tropical estuarine fish barramundi Lates calcarifer (Bloch) under different freshwater flow conditions

Relationships between freshwater flows and growth rates of the opportunistic predatory finfish barramundi Lates calcarifer in a dry tropical estuary were examined using data from a long-term tag-recapture programme. Lagged effects were not investigated. After accounting for length at release, time at liberty and seasonal variation (e.g. winter, spring, summer and autumn), growth rates were significantly and positively related to fresh water flowing to the estuary. Effects were present at relatively low levels of freshwater flow (i.e. 2.15 m3 s-1, the 5th percentile of the mean flow rate experienced by fish in the study during time at liberty). The analysis, although correlative, provides quantitative evidence to support the hypothesis that freshwater flows are important in driving the productivity of estuaries and can improve growth of species high in the trophic chain.

A comparison of a blocking ELISA and a haemagglutination inhibition assay for the detection of antibodies to Avibacterium (Haemophilus) paragallinarum in sera from artificially infected chickens

The ability of blocking ELISAs and haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) tests to detect antibodies in sera from chickens challenged with either Avibacterium (Haemophilus) paragallinarum isolate Hp8 (serovar A) or H668 (serovar C) was compared. Serum samples were examined weekly over the 9 weeks following infection. The results showed that the positive rate of serovar A specific antibody in the B-ELISA remained at 100% from the second week to the ninth week. In chickens given the serovar C challenge, the highest positive rate of serovar C specific antibody in the B-ELISA appeared at the seventh week (60% positive) and was then followed by a rapid decrease. The B-ELISA gave significantly more positives at weeks 2, 3, 7, 8 and 9 post-infection for serovar A and at week 7 post-infection for serovar C. In qualitative terms, for both serovar A and serovar C infections, the HI tests gave a lower percentage of positive sera at all time points except at 9 weeks post-infection with serovar C. The highest positive rate for serovar A HI antibodies was 70% of sera at the fourth and fifth weeks post-infection. The highest rate of serovar C HI antibodies was 20% at the fifth and sixth weeks post-infection. The results have provided further evidence of the suitability of the serovar A and C B-ELISAs for the diagnosis of infectious coryza.

The mortality of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) neonate larvae in relation to drop-off and soil surface temperature: The dangers of bungy jumping

The first larval instar has been identified as a critical stage for population mortality in Lepidoptera, yet due to the body size of these larvae, the factors that contribute to mortality under field conditions are still not clear. Dispersal behaviour has been suggested as a significant, but ignored factor contributing to mortality in first-instar lepidopteran larvae. The impact that leaving the host plant has on the mortality rate of Helicoverpa armigera neonates was examined in field crops and laboratory trials. In this study the following are examined: (1) the effects of soil surface temperature, and the level of shade within the crop, on the mortality of neonates on the soil after dropping off from the host plant; (2) the percentage of neonates that dropped off from a host plant and landed on the soil; and (3) the effects of exposure to different soil surface temperatures on the development and mortality of neonates. The findings of this study showed that: (1) on the soil, surface temperatures above 43°C were lethal for neonates, and exposure to these temperatures contributed greatly to the overall mortality rate observed; however, the fate of neonates on the soil varied significantly depending on canopy closure within the crop; (2) at least 15% of neonates dropped off from the host plant and landed on the soil, meaning that the proportion of neonates exposed to these condition is not trivial; and (3) 30 min exposure to soil surface temperatures approaching the lethal level (>43°C) has no significant negative effects on the development and mortality of larvae through to the second instar. Overall leaving the plant through drop-off contributes to first-instar mortality in crops with open canopies; however, survival of neonates that have lost contact with a host plant is possible, and becomes more likely later in the crop growing season.

Detecting the attributes of a wheat crop using digital imagery acquired from a low-altitude platform

A low-altitude platform utilising a 1.8-m diameter tethered helium balloon was used to position a multispectral sensor, consisting of two digital cameras, above a fertiliser trial plot where wheat (Triticum spp.) was being grown. Located in Cecil Plains, Queensland, Australia, the plot was a long-term fertiliser trial being conducted by a fertiliser company to monitor the response of crops to various levels of nutrition. The different levels of nutrition were achieved by varying nitrogen application rates between 0 and 120 units of N at 40 unit increments. Each plot had received the same application rate for 10 years. Colour and near-infrared images were acquired that captured the whole 2 ha plot. These images were examined and relationships sought between the captured digital information and the crop parameters imaged at anthesis and the at-harvest quality and quantity parameters. The statistical analysis techniques used were correlation analysis, discriminant analysis and partial least squares regression. A high correlation was found between the image and yield (R2 = 0.91) and a moderate correlation between the image and grain protein content (R2 = 0.66). The utility of the system could be extended by choosing a more mobile platform. This would increase the potential for the system to be used to diagnose the causes of the variability and allow remediation, and/or to segregate the crop at harvest to meet certain quality parameters.

Modelling environmental effects on phenology and canopy development of diverse sorghum genotypes

The ability to predict phenology and canopy development is critical in crop models used for simulating likely consequences of alternative crop management and cultivar choice strategies. Here we quantify and contrast the temperature and photoperiod responses for phenology and canopy development of a diverse range of elite Indian and Australian sorghum genotypes (hybrid and landrace). Detailed field experiments were undertaken in Australia and India using a range of genotypes, sowing dates, and photoperiod extension treatments. Measurements of timing of developmental stages and leaf appearance were taken. The generality of photo-thermal approaches to modelling phenological and canopy development was tested. Environmental and genotypic effects on rate of progression from emergence to floral initiation (E-FI) were explained well using a multiplicative model, which combined the intrinsic development rate (Ropt), with responses to temperature and photoperiod. Differences in Ropt and extent of the photoperiod response explained most genotypic effects. Average leaf initiation rate (LIR), leaf appearance rate and duration of the phase from anthesis to physiological maturity differed among genotypes. The association of total leaf number (TLN) with photoperiod found for all genotypes could not be fully explained by effects on development and LIRs. While a putative effect of photoperiod on LIR would explain the observations, other possible confounding factors, such as air-soil temperature differential and the nature of model structure were considered and discussed. This study found a generally robust predictive capacity of photo-thermal development models across diverse ranges of both genotypes and environments. Hence, they remain the most appropriate models for simulation analysis of genotype-by-management scenarios in environments varying broadly in temperature and photoperiod.

The effects of high stocking rates on milk production from dryland and irrigated Mediterranean pastures

An experiment using herds of similar to 20 cows (farmlets) assessed the effects of high stocking rates on production and profitability of feeding systems based on dryland and irrigated perennial ryegrass-based pastures in a Mediterranean environment in South Australia over 4 years. A target level of milk production of 7000 L/cow.year was set, based on predicted intakes of 2.7 t DM/cow.year as concentrates, pasture intakes from 1.5 to 2.7 t/cow.year and purchased fodder. In years 1 and 2, up to 1.5 t DM/cow.year of purchased fodder was used and in years 3 and 4 the amounts were increased if necessary to enable levels of milk production per cow to be maintained at target levels. Cows in dryland farmlets calved in March to May inclusive and were stocked at 2.5, 2.9, 3.3, 3.6 and 4.1 cows/ha, while those in irrigated farmlets calved in August to October inclusive and were stocked at 4.1, 5.2, 6.3 and 7.4 cows/ha. In the first 2 years, when inputs of purchased fodder were limited, milk production per cow was reduced with higher stocking rates (P < 0.01), but in years 3 and 4 there were no differences. Mean production was 7149 kg/cow.year in years 1 and 2, and 8162 kg/cow.year in years 3 and 4. Production per hectare was very closely related to stocking rate in all years (P < 0.01), increasing from 18 to 34 t milk/ha.year for dryland farmlets (1300 to 2200 kg milk solids/ha) and from 30 to 60 t milk/ha.year for irrigated farmlets (2200 to 4100 kg milk solids/ha). Almost all of these increases were attributed to the increases in grain and purchased fodder inputs associated with the increases in stocking rate. Net pasture accumulation rates and pasture harvest were generally not altered with stocking rate, though as stocking rate increased there was a change to more of the pasture being grazed and less conserved in both dryland and irrigated farmlets. Total pasture harvest averaged similar to 8 and 14 t DM/ha.year for dryland and irrigated pastures, respectively. An exception was at the highest stocking rate under irrigation, where pugging during winter was associated with a 14% reduction in annual pasture growth. There were several indications that these high stocking rates may not be sustainable without substantial changes in management practice. There were large and positive nutrient balances and associated increases in soil mineral content (P < 0.01), especially for phosphorus and nitrate nitrogen, with both stocking rate and succeeding years. Levels under irrigation were considerably higher (up to 90 and 240 mg/kg of soil for nitrate nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively) than under dryland pastures (60 and 140 mg/kg, respectively). Soil organic carbon levels did not change with stocking rate, indicating a high level of utilisation of forage grown. Weed ingress was also high (to 22% DM) in all treatments and especially in heavily stocked irrigated pastures during winter. It was concluded the higher stocking rates used exceeded those that are feasible for Mediterranean pastures in this environment and upper levels of stocking are suggested to be 2.5 cows/ha for dryland pastures and 5.2 cows/ha for irrigated pastures. To sustain these suggested stocking rates will require further development of management practices to avoid large increases in soil minerals and weed invasion of pastures.

Grazing management influences the dynamics of populations of Stylosanthes hippocampoides (Oxley fine stem stylo)

This paper describes a study to identify those factors which control the persistence of the Subtropical legume Stylosanthes hippocampoides, formerly S. guianensis cv. Oxley (fine stem stylo). The dynamics of S. hippocampoides populations was recorded in permanent quadrats at 2 stocking rates in a grazing study conducted between 1987 and 1992 in south-eastern Queensland. Density of mature plants fluctuated between 10 and 60 plants/m(2) during the 5 years with the major contributing factors being variations in seedling recruitment and survival, which, in turn, reflected the size of the soil seed bank and seasonal rainfall. Plant density was consistently higher at the lower stocking rate of 1 beast/1.5 ha compared with 1 beast/1 ha; however, the effect of stocking rate was minor compared with fluctuation due to seasonal variation in rainfall. The maximum life span of the original plants exceeded 5 years, while the survival of seedling cohorts was strongly impacted by seasonal rainfall. Total exclosure from grazing during summer increased the size of the soil seed bank although a precise time period during summer was not identified, while grazing at the lower stocking pressure produced the same outcome. It was concluded that the large seasonal variation that occurs in S. hippocampoides density is driven by large seasonal variation in seedling recruitment, which, in turn, is influenced by the size of the soil seed bank.

Functional dynamics of the nitrogen balance of sorghum. II. Grain filling period.

Maintenance of green leaf area during grain filling can increase grain yield of sorghum grown under terminal water limitation. This 'stay-green' trait has been related to the nitrogen (N) supply-demand balance during grain filling. This study quantifies the N demand of grain and N translocation rates from leaves and stem and explores effects of genotype and N stress on onset and rate of leaf senescence during the grain filling period. Three hybrids differing in potential height were grown at three levels of N supply under well-watered conditions. Vertical profiles of biomass, leaf area, and N% of leaves, stem and grain were measured at regular intervals. Weekly SPAD chlorophyll readings on main shoot leaves were correlated with observed specific leaf nitrogen (SLN) to derive seasonal patterns of leaf N content. For all hybrids, individual grain N demand was sink determined and was initially met through N translocation from the stem and rachis. Only if this was insufficient did leaf N translocation occur. Maximum N translocation rates from leaves and stem were dependent on their N status. However, the supply of N at canopy scale was also related to the amount of leaf area senescing at any one time. This supply-demand framework for N dynamics explained effects of N stress and genotype on the onset and rate of leaf senescence.

Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus

1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.

Assessing the effects of line capture and barotrauma relief procedures on post-release survival of key tropical reef fish species in Australia using recreational tagging clubs.

Common coral trout, Plectropomus leopardus Lacepede, crimson snapper, Lutjanus erythropterus Bloch, saddletail snapper, Lutjanus malabaricus (Bloch & Schneider), red emperor, Lutjanus sebae (Cuvier), redthroat emperor, Lethrinus miniatus (Schneider) and grass emperor, Lethrinus laticaudis Alleyne & Macleay, were tagged to determine the effects of barotrauma relief procedures (weighted shot-line release and venting using a hollow needle) and other factors on survival. Release condition was the most significant factor affecting the subsequent recapture rate of all species. Capture depth was significant in all species apart from L. malabaricus and L. miniatus, the general trend being reduced recapture probability with increasing capture depth. Recapture rates of fish hooked in either the lip or mouth were generally significantly higher than for those hooked in the throat or gut. Statistically significant benefit from treating fish for barotrauma was found in only L. malabaricus, but the lack of any negative effects of treating fish indicated that the practices of venting and shot-lining should not be discouraged by fisheries managers for these species.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Latitudinal and seasonal effects on growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

The growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) is understood in greater detail by quantifying the latitudinal effect. The latitudinal effect is the change in the species’ growth rate during migration. Mark–recapture data (N = 1635, latitude 22.21°S–34.00°S) presents northerly movement of the eastern king prawn, with New South Wales prawns showing substantial average movement of 140 km (standard deviation: 176 km) north. A generalized von Bertalanffy growth model framework is used to incorporate the latitudinal effect together with the canonical seasonal effect. Applying this method to eastern king prawn mark–recapture data guarantees consistent estimates for the latitudinal and seasonal effects. For M. plebejus, it was found that growth rate peaks on 25 and 29 January for males and females, respectively; is at a minimum on 27 and 31 July, respectively; and that the shape parameter, k (per year), changes by –0.0236 and –0.0556 every 1 degree of latitude south increase for males and females, respectively.

Real-time PCR as a surveillance tool for the detection of Trichinella infection in muscle samples from wildlife

Trichinella nematodes are the causative agent of trichinellosis, a meat-borne zoonosis acquired by consuming undercooked, infected meat. Although most human infections are sourced from the domestic environment, the majority of Trichinella parasites circulate in the natural environment in carnivorous and scavenging wildlife. Surveillance using reliable and accurate diagnostic tools to detect Trichinella parasites in wildlife hosts is necessary to evaluate the prevalence and risk of transmission from wildlife to humans. Real-time PCR assays have previously been developed for the detection of European Trichinella species in commercial pork and wild fox muscle samples. We have expanded on the use of real-time PCR in Trichinella detection by developing an improved extraction method and SYBR green assay that detects all known Trichinella species in muscle samples from a greater variety of wildlife. We simulated low-level Trichinella infections in wild pig, fox, saltwater crocodile, wild cat and a native Australian marsupial using Trichinella pseudospiralis or Trichinella papuae ethanol-fixed larvae. Trichinella-specific primers targeted a conserved region of the small subunit of the ribosomal RNA and were tested for specificity against host and other parasite genomic DNAs. The analytical sensitivity of the assay was at least 100 fg using pure genomic T. pseudospiralis DNA serially diluted in water. The diagnostic sensitivity of the assay was evaluated by spiking log of each host muscle with T. pseudospiralis or T. papuae larvae at representative infections of 1.0, 0.5 and 0.1 larvae per gram, and shown to detect larvae at the lowest infection rate. A field sample evaluation on naturally infected muscle samples of wild pigs and Tasmanian devils showed complete agreement with the EU reference artificial digestion method (k-value = 1.00). Positive amplification of mouse tissue experimentally infected with T. spiralis indicated the assay could also be used on encapsulated species in situ. This real-time PCR assay offers an alternative highly specific and sensitive diagnostic method for use in Trichinella wildlife surveillance and could be adapted to wildlife hosts of any region. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.