Development of a Multiplexed Bead-Based Suspension Array for the Detection and Discrimination of Pospiviroid Plant Pathogens

Efficient and reliable diagnostic tools for the routine indexing and certification of clean propagating material are essential for the management of pospiviroid diseases in horticultural crops. This study describes the development of a true multiplexed diagnostic method for the detection and identification of all nine currently recognized pospiviroid species in one assay using Luminex bead-based suspension array technology. In addition, a new data-driven, statistical method is presented for establishing thresholds for positivity for individual assays within multiplexed arrays. When applied to the multiplexed array data generated in this study, the new method was shown to have better control of false positives and false negative results than two other commonly used approaches for setting thresholds. The 11-plex Luminex MagPlex-TAG pospiviroid array described here has a unique hierarchical assay design, incorporating a near-universal assay in addition to nine species-specific assays, and a co-amplified plant internal control assay for quality assurance purposes. All assays of the multiplexed array were shown to be 100% specific, sensitive and reproducible. The multiplexed array described herein is robust, easy to use, displays unambiguous results and has strong potential for use in routine pospiviroid indexing to improve disease management strategies.

Molecular discrimination of Perna (Mollusca: Bivalvia) species using the polymerase chain reaction and species-specific mitochondrial primers

This work was prompted by the need to be able to identify the invasive mussel species, Perna viridis, in tropical Australian seas using techniques that do not rely solely on morphology. DNA-based molecular methods utilizing a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) approach were developed to distinguish unambiguously between the three species in the genus Perna. Target regions were portions of two mitochondrial genes, cox1 and nad4, and the intergenic spacer between these that occurs in at least two Perna species. Based on interspecific sequence comparisons of the nad4 gene, a conserved primer has been designed that can act as a forward primer in PCRs for any Perna species. Four reverse primers have also been designed, based on nad4 and intergenic spacer sequences, which yield species-specific products of different lengths when paired with the conserved forward primer. A further pair of primers has been designed that will amplify part of the cox1 gene of any Perna species, and possibly other molluscs, as a positive control to demonstrate that the PCR is working.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Seabed discrimination data from SeaScan™

Raw data from SeaScan™ transects off Wide Bay (south Queensland) taken in August 2007 as part of a study of ecological factors influencing the distribution of spanner crabs (Ranina ranina). The dataset (comma-delimited ascii file) comprises the following fields: 1. record number 2. date-time (GMT) 3. date-time (AEST) 4. latitude (signed decimal degrees) 5. longitude (decimal degrees) 6. speed over ground (knots) 7. depth (m) 8. seabed roughness (v) 9. hardness (v) Indices of roughness and hardness (from the first and second echoes respectively) were obtained using a SeaScan™ 100 system (un-referenced) on board the Research Vessel Tom Marshall, with the ship’s Furuno FCV 1100 echo sounder and 1 kW, 50 kHz transducer. Generally vessel speed was kept below about 14 kt (typically ~12 kt), and the echo-sounder range set to 80 m. The data were filtered to remove errors due to data drop-out, straying beyond system depth limits (min. 10 m), or transducer interference.

Statistical methods for analysis of multi-harvest data from perennial pasture variety selection trials

Variety selection in perennial pasture crops involves identifying best varieties from data collected from multiple harvest times in field trials. For accurate selection, the statistical methods for analysing such data need to account for the spatial and temporal correlation typically present. This paper provides an approach for analysing multi-harvest data from variety selection trials in which there may be a large number of harvest times. Methods are presented for modelling the variety by harvest effects while accounting for the spatial and temporal correlation between observations. These methods provide an improvement in model fit compared to separate analyses for each harvest, and provide insight into variety by harvest interactions. The approach is illustrated using two traits from a lucerne variety selection trial. The proposed method provides variety predictions allowing for the natural sources of variation and correlation in multi-harvest data.