Spatio-temporal patterns in maturation of the chokka squid (Loligo vulgaris reynaudii) off the coast of South Africa

Knowledge of the temporal and spatial characteristics of chokka squid (Loligo vulgaris reynaudii) biology in South African waters is limited, so the possibility of there being a geographically fragmented stock was examined by investigating the distribution of maturity patterns for the species, covering all known spawning areas and using both historical and recent data. Gonadosomatic indices (GSI) varied between year-round consistency and apparent seasonal peaks in both summer and winter; there was no clear spatial pattern. Monthly percentage maturity provided further evidence for two peak reproductive periods each year, although mature squid were present throughout. Sex ratios demonstrated great variability between different areas and life history stages. Male-biased sex ratios were only apparent on the inshore spawning grounds and ranged between 1.118:1 and 4.267:1. Size at sexual maturity was also seasonal, squid maturing smaller in winter/spring than in summer/autumn. Also, squid in the east matured smaller than squid in the west. Although the results from the present study do not provide conclusive evidence of distinct geographic populations, squid likely spawn over a significantly larger area of the Agulhas Bank than previously estimated, and squid on the west coast of South Africa may return to spawn on the western portion of the Agulhas Bank. It remains likely, however, that the east and west coast populations are a single stock and that migration of juveniles to the west coast and their subsequent return as sub-adults is an integral but non-essential and variable part of the life history.

Population structure, effective population size and adverse effects of stocking in the endangered Australian eastern freshwater cod Maccullochella ikei

Microsatellite markers were used to examine spatio-temporal genetic variation in the endangered eastern freshwater cod Maccullochella ikei in the Clarence River system, eastern Australia. High levels of population structure were detected. A model-based clustering analysis of multilocus genotypes identified four populations that were highly differentiated by F-statistics (FST = 0· 09 − 0· 49; P < 0· 05), suggesting fragmentation and restricted dispersal particularly among upstream sites. Hatchery breeding programmes were used to re-establish locally extirpated populations and to supplement remnant populations. Bayesian and frequency-based analyses of hatchery fingerling samples provided evidence for population admixture in the hatchery, with the majority of parental stock sourced from distinct upstream sites. Comparison between historical and contemporary wild-caught samples showed a significant loss of heterozygosity (21%) and allelic richness (24%) in the Mann and Nymboida Rivers since the commencement of stocking. Fragmentation may have been a causative factor; however, temporal shifts in allele frequencies suggest swamping with hatchery-produced M. ikei has contributed to the genetic decline in the largest wild population. This study demonstrates the importance of using information on genetic variation and population structure in the management of breeding and stocking programmes, particularly for threatened species.

A hidden Markov model approach for determining vessel activity from vessel monitoring system data.

Many fisheries worldwide have adopted vessel monitoring systems (VMS) for compliance purposes. An added benefit of these systems is that they collect a large amount of data on vessel locations at very fine spatial and temporal scales. This data can provide a wealth of information for stock assessment, research, and management. However, since most VMS implementations record vessel location at set time intervals with no regard to vessel activity, some methodology is required to determine which data records correspond to fishing activity. This paper describes a probabilistic approach, based on hidden Markov models (HMMs), to determine vessel activity. A HMM provides a natural framework for the problem and, by definition, models the intrinsic temporal correlation of the data. The paper describes the general approach that was developed and presents an example of this approach applied to the Queensland trawl fishery off the coast of eastern Australia. Finally, a simulation experiment is presented that compares the misallocation rates of the HMM approach with other approaches.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Abundance indices for long-lived tropical snappers: estimating standardized catch rates from spatially and temporally coarse logbook data

The Northern Demersal Scalefish Fishery has historically comprised a small fleet (≤10 vessels year−1) operating over a relatively large area off the northwest coast of Australia. This multispecies fishery primarily harvests two species of snapper: goldband snapper, Pristipomoides multidens and red emperor, Lutjanus sebae. A key input to age-structured assessments of these stocks has been the annual time-series of the catch rate. We used an approach that combined Generalized Linear Models, spatio-temporal imputation, and computer-intensive methods to standardize the fishery catch rates and report uncertainty in the indices. These analyses, which represent one of the first attempts to standardize fish trap catch rates, were also augmented to gain additional insights into the effects of targeting, historical effort creep, and spatio-temporal resolution of catch and effort data on trap fishery dynamics. Results from monthly reported catches (i.e. 1993 on) were compared with those reported daily from more recently (i.e. 2008 on) enhanced catch and effort logbooks. Model effects of catches of one species on the catch rates of another became more conspicuous when the daily data were analysed and produced estimates with greater precision. The rate of putative effort creep estimated for standardized catch rates was much lower than estimated for nominal catch rates. These results therefore demonstrate how important additional insights into fishery and fish population dynamics can be elucidated from such “pre-assessment” analyses.

Flight directionality of Tribolium castaneum soon after take-off under glasshouse and field conditions

Flight directionality of the rust-red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae), was investigated under glasshouse and field conditions using sticky traps placed around dense experimental infestations of T. castaneum derived from field-collected samples. Although beetles of this species are known to fly quite readily, information on flight of beetles away from grain resources is limited. Under still glasshouse conditions, T. castaneum does not demonstrate strong horizontal or vertical trajectories in their initial flight behaviour. Flight was significantly directional in half of the replicates, but trapped beetles were only weakly concentrated around the mean direction of flight. In the field, by contrast, emigration of T. castaneum was strongly directional soon after flight initiation. The mean vector lengths were generally >0.5 which indicates that trapped beetles were strongly concentrated around the calculated mean flight direction. A circular-circular regression of mean flight vs. mean downwind direction suggested that flight direction was generally correlated with downwind direction. The mean height at which T. castaneum individuals initially flew was 115.4 ± 7.0 cm, with 58.3% of beetles caught no more than 1 m above the ground. The height at which beetles were trapped did not correlate with wind speed at the time of sampling, but the data do indicate that wind speed significantly affected T. castaneum flight initiation, because no beetles (or very few; no more than three) were trapped in the field when the mean wind speed was above 3 m s−1. This study thus demonstrates that wind speed and direction are both important aspects of flight behaviour of T. castaneum, and therefore of the spatio-temporal dynamics of this species.

Statistical methods for analysis of multi-harvest data from perennial pasture variety selection trials

Variety selection in perennial pasture crops involves identifying best varieties from data collected from multiple harvest times in field trials. For accurate selection, the statistical methods for analysing such data need to account for the spatial and temporal correlation typically present. This paper provides an approach for analysing multi-harvest data from variety selection trials in which there may be a large number of harvest times. Methods are presented for modelling the variety by harvest effects while accounting for the spatial and temporal correlation between observations. These methods provide an improvement in model fit compared to separate analyses for each harvest, and provide insight into variety by harvest interactions. The approach is illustrated using two traits from a lucerne variety selection trial. The proposed method provides variety predictions allowing for the natural sources of variation and correlation in multi-harvest data.

Effects of trawling on sessile megabenthos in the Great Barrier Reef and evaluation of the efficacy of management strategies

A series of related research studies over 15 years assessed the effects of prawn trawling on sessile megabenthos in the Great Barrier Reef, to support management for sustainable use in the World Heritage Area. These large-scale studies estimated impacts on benthos (particularly removal rates per trawl pass), monitored subsequent recovery rates, measured natural dynamics of tagged megabenthos, mapped the regional distribution of seabed habitats and benthic species, and integrated these results in a dynamic modelling framework together with spatio-temporal fishery effort data and simulated management. Typical impact rates were between 5 and 25% per trawl, recovery times ranged from several years to several decades, and most sessile megabenthos were naturally distributed in areas where little or no trawling occurred and so had low exposure to trawling. The model simulated trawl impact and recovery on the mapped species distributions, and estimated the regional scale cumulative changes due to trawling as a time series of status for megabenthos species. The regional status of these taxa at time of greatest depletion ranged from ∼77% relative to pre-trawl abundance for the worst case species, having slow recovery with moderate exposure to trawling, to ∼97% for the least affected taxon. The model also evaluated the expected outcomes for sessile megabenthos in response to major management interventions implemented between 1999 and 2006, including closures, effort reductions, and protected areas. As a result of these interventions, all taxa were predicted to recover (by 2-14% at 2025); the most affected species having relatively greater recovery. Effort reductions made the biggest positive contributions to benthos status for all taxa, with closures making smaller contributions for some taxa. The results demonstrated that management actions have arrested and reversed previous unsustainable trends for all taxa assessed, and have led to a prawn trawl fishery with improved environmental sustainability. © 2015 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.