Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual’s previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag–recapture data and tag–recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Application of commercially available, low-cost, miniaturised NIR spectrometers to the assessment of the sugar content of intact fruit

Recent decreases in costs, and improvements in performance, of silicon array detectors open a range of potential applications of relevance to plant physiologists, associated with spectral analysis in the visible and short-wave near infra-red (far-red) spectrum. The performance characteristics of three commercially available ‘miniature’ spectrometers based on silicon array detectors operating in the 650–1050-nm spectral region (MMS1 from Zeiss, S2000 from Ocean Optics, and FICS from Oriel, operated with a Larry detector) were compared with respect to the application of non-invasive prediction of sugar content of fruit using near infra-red spectroscopy (NIRS). The FICS–Larry gave the best wavelength resolution; however, the narrow slit and small pixel size of the charge-coupled device detector resulted in a very low sensitivity, and this instrumentation was not considered further. Wavelength resolution was poor with the MMS1 relative to the S2000 (e.g. full width at half maximum of the 912 nm Hg peak, 13 and 2 nm for the MMS1 and S2000, respectively), but the large pixel height of the array used in the MMS1 gave it sensitivity comparable to the S2000. The signal-to-signal standard error ratio of spectra was greater by an order of magnitude with the MMS1, relative to the S2000, at both near saturation and low light levels. Calibrations were developed using reflectance spectra of filter paper soaked in range of concentrations (0–20% w/v) of sucrose, using a modified partial least squares procedure. Calibrations developed with the MMS1 were superior to those developed using the S2000 (e.g. coefficient of correlation of 0.90 and 0.62, and standard error of cross-validation of 1.9 and 5.4%, respectively), indicating the importance of high signal to noise ratio over wavelength resolution to calibration accuracy. The design of a bench top assembly using the MMS1 for the non-invasive assessment of mesocarp sugar content of (intact) melon fruit is reported in terms of light source and angle between detector and light source, and optimisation of math treatment (derivative condition and smoothing function).

Assessment of internal quality attributes of mandarin fruit. 1. NIR calibration model development

The utility of near infrared spectroscopy as a non-invasive technique for the assessment of internal eating quality parameters of mandarin fruit (Citrus reticulata cv. Imperial) was assessed. The calibration procedure for the attributes of TSS (total soluble solids) and DM (dry matter) was optimised with respect to a reference sampling technique, scan averaging, spectral window, data pre-treatment (in terms of derivative treatment and scatter correction routine) and regression procedure. The recommended procedure involved sampling of an equatorial position on the fruit with 1 scan per spectrum, and modified partial least squares model development on a 720–950-nm window, pre-treated as first derivative absorbance data (gap size of 4 data points) with standard normal variance and detrend scatter correction. Calibration model performance for the attributes of TSS and DM content was encouraging (typical Rc2 of >0.75 and 0.90, respectively; typical root mean squared standard error of calibration of <0.4 and 0.6%, respectively), whereas that for juiciness and total acidity was unacceptable. The robustness of the TSS and DM calibrations across new populations of fruit is documented in a companion study.

Selecting for increased barley grain size

In this study, 120–144 commercial varieties and breeding lines were assessed for grain size attributes including plump grain (>2.8 mm) and retention (>2.5 mm+>2.8 mm). Grain samples were produced from replicated trials at 25 sites across four years. Climatic conditions varied between years as well as between sites. Several of the trial sites were irrigated while the remaining were produced under dryland conditions. A number of the dryland sites suffered severe drought stress. The grain size data was analysed for genetic (G), environmental (E) and genotype by environment (G×E) interactions. All analyses included maturity as a covariate. The genetic effect on grain size was greater than environmental or maturity effects despite some sites suffering terminal moisture stress. The model was used to calculate heritability values for each site used in the study. These values ranged from 89 to 98% for plump grain and 88 to 96% for retention. The results demonstrated that removing the sources of non-heritable variation, such as maturity and field effects, can improve genetic estimates of the retention and plump grain fractions. By partitioning all variance components, and thereby having more robust estimates of genetic differences, plant breeders can have greater confidence in selecting barley genotypes which maintain large, stable grain size across a range of environments.

Measurement of genetic and environmental variation in barley (Hordeum vulgare) grain hardness

In this study, we assessed a broad range of barley breeding lines and commercial varieties by three hardness methods (two particle size methods and one crush resistance method (SKCS—Single-Kernel Characterization System), grown at multiple sites to see if there was variation in barley hardness and if that variation was genetic or environmentally controlled. We also developed near-infrared reflectance (NIR) calibrations for these three hardness methods to ascertain if NIR technology was suitable for rapid screening of breeding lines or specific populations. In addition, we used this data to identify genetic regions that may be associated with hardness. There were significant (p<0.05) genetic effects for the three hardness methods. There were also environmental effects, possibly linked to the effect of protein on hardness, i.e. increasing protein resulted in harder grain. Heritability values were calculated at >85% for all methods. The NIR calibrations, with R2 values of >90%, had Standard Error of Prediction values of 0.90, 72 and 4.0, respectively, for the three hardness methods. These equations were used to predict hardness values of a mapping population which resulted in genetic markers being identified on all chromosomes but chromosomes 2H, 3H, 5H, 6H and 7H had markers with significant LOD scores. The two regions on 5H were on the distal end of both the long and short arms. The region that showed significant LOD score was on the long arm. However, the region on the short arm associated with the hardness (hordoindoline) genes did not have significant LOD scores. The results indicate that barley hardness is influenced by both genotype and environment and that the trait is heritable, which would allow breeders to develop very hard or soft varieties if required. In addition, NIR was shown to be a reliable tool for screening for hardness. While the data set used in this study has a relatively low variation in hardness, the tools developed could be applied to breeding populations that have large variation in barley grain hardness.

The genetic effective and adult census size of an Australian population of tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus)

This study compares estimates of the census size of the spawning population with genetic estimates of effective current and long-term population size for an abundant and commercially important marine invertebrate, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus). Our aim was to focus on the relationship between genetic effective and census size that may provide a source of information for viability analyses of naturally occurring populations. Samples were taken in 2001, 2002 and 2003 from a population on the east coast of Australia and temporal allelic variation was measured at eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Moments-based and maximum-likelihood estimates of current genetic effective population size ranged from 797 to 1304. The mean long-term genetic effective population size was 9968. Although small for a large population, the effective population size estimates were above the threshold where genetic diversity is lost at neutral alleles through drift or inbreeding. Simulation studies correctly predicted that under these experimental conditions the genetic estimates would have non-infinite upper confidence limits and revealed they might be overestimates of the true size. We also show that estimates of mortality and variance in family size may be derived from data on average fecundity, current genetic effective and census spawning population size, assuming effective population size is equivalent to the number of breeders. This work confirms that it is feasible to obtain accurate estimates of current genetic effective population size for abundant Type III species using existing genetic marker technology.

A comparison of plotless density estimators using Monte Carlo simulation on totally enumerated field data sets

Background: Plotless density estimators are those that are based on distance measures rather than counts per unit area (quadrats or plots) to estimate the density of some usually stationary event, e.g. burrow openings, damage to plant stems, etc. These estimators typically use distance measures between events and from random points to events to derive an estimate of density. The error and bias of these estimators for the various spatial patterns found in nature have been examined using simulated populations only. In this study we investigated eight plotless density estimators to determine which were robust across a wide range of data sets from fully mapped field sites. They covered a wide range of situations including animal damage to rice and corn, nest locations, active rodent burrows and distribution of plants. Monte Carlo simulations were applied to sample the data sets, and in all cases the error of the estimate (measured as relative root mean square error) was reduced with increasing sample size. The method of calculation and ease of use in the field were also used to judge the usefulness of the estimator. Estimators were evaluated in their original published forms, although the variable area transect (VAT) and ordered distance methods have been the subjects of optimization studies. Results: An estimator that was a compound of three basic distance estimators was found to be robust across all spatial patterns for sample sizes of 25 or greater. The same field methodology can be used either with the basic distance formula or the formula used with the Kendall-Moran estimator in which case a reduction in error may be gained for sample sizes less than 25, however, there is no improvement for larger sample sizes. The variable area transect (VAT) method performed moderately well, is easy to use in the field, and its calculations easy to undertake. Conclusion: Plotless density estimators can provide an estimate of density in situations where it would not be practical to layout a plot or quadrat and can in many cases reduce the workload in the field.

Frequency and precision of aerial surveys for kangaroo management

The appropriate frequency and precision for surveys of wildlife populations represent a trade-off between survey cost and the risk of making suboptimal management decisions because of poor survey data. The commercial harvest of kangaroos is primarily regulated through annual quotas set as proportions of absolute estimates of population size. Stochastic models were used to explore the effects of varying precision, survey frequency and harvest rate on the risk of quasiextinction for an arid-zone and a more mesic-zone kangaroo population. Quasiextinction probability increases in a sigmoidal fashion as survey frequency is reduced. The risk is greater in more arid regions and is highly sensitive to harvest rate. An appropriate management regime involves regular surveys in the major harvest areas where harvest rate can be set close to the maximum sustained yield. Outside these areas, survey frequency can be reduced in relatively mesic areas and reduced in arid regions when combined with lowered harvest rates. Relative to other factors, quasiextinction risk is only affected by survey precision (standard error/mean × 100) when it is >50%, partly reflecting the safety of the strategy of harvesting a proportion of a population estimate.

Effect of changes in hook pattern and size on catch rate, hooking location, injury and bleeding for a number of tropical reef fish species

The Queensland Great Barrier Reef line fishery in Australia is regulated via a range of input and output controls including minimum size limits, daily catch limits and commercial catch quotas. As a result of these measures a substantial proportion of the catch is released or discarded. The fate of these released fish is uncertain, but hook-related mortality can potentially be decreased by using hooks that reduce the rates of injury, bleeding and deep hooking. There is also the potential to reduce the capture of non-target species though gear selectivity. A total of 1053 individual fish representing five target species and three non-target species were caught using six hook types including three hook patterns (non-offset circle, J and offset circle), each in two sizes (small 4/0 or 5/0 and large 8/0). Catch rates for each of the hook patterns and sizes varied between species with no consistent results for target or non-target species. When data for all of the fish species were aggregated there was a trend for larger hooks, J hooks and offset circle hooks to cause a greater number of injuries. Using larger hooks was more likely to result in bleeding, although this trend was not statistically significant. Larger hooks were also more likely to foul-hook fish or hook fish in the eye. There was a reduction in the rates of injuries and bleeding for both target and non-target species when using the smaller hook sizes. For a number of species included in our study the incidence of deep hooking decreased when using non-offset circle hooks, however, these results were not consistent for all species. Our results highlight the variability in hook performance across a range of tropical demersal finfish species. The most obvious conservation benefits for both target and non-target species arise from using smaller sized hooks and non-offset circle hooks. Fishers should be encouraged to use these hook configurations to reduce the potential for post-release mortality of released fish.

Using harvest statistics to monitor temporal variation in kangaroo density and harvest rate

Management of the commercial harvest of kangaroos relies on quotas set annually as a proportion of regular estimates of population size. Surveys to generate these estimates are expensive and, in the larger states, logistically difficult; a cheaper alternative is desirable. Rainfall is a disappointingly poor predictor of kangaroo rate of increase in many areas, but harvest statistics (sex ratio, carcass weight, skin size and animals shot per unit time) potentially offer cost-effective indirect monitoring of population abundance (and therefore trend) and status (i.e. under-or overharvest). Furthermore, because harvest data are collected continuously and throughout the harvested areas, they offer the promise of more intensive and more representative coverage of harvest areas than aerial surveys do. To be useful, harvest statistics would need to have a close and known relationship with either population size or harvest rate. We assessed this using longterm (11-22 years) data for three kangaroo species (Macropus rufus, M. giganteus and M. fuliginosus) and common wallaroos (M. robustus) across South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland. Regional variation in kangaroo body size, population composition, shooter efficiency and selectivity required separate analyses in different regions. Two approaches were taken. First, monthly harvest statistics were modelled as a function of a number of explanatory variables, including kangaroo density, harvest rate and rainfall. Second, density and harvest rate were modelled as a function of harvest statistics. Both approaches incorporated a correlated error structure. Many but not all regions had relationships with sufficient precision to be useful for indirect monitoring. However, there was no single relationship that could be applied across an entire state or across species. Combined with rainfall-driven population models and applied at a regional level, these relationships could be used to reduce the frequency of aerial surveys without compromising decisions about harvest management.

The effect of foliar sprays of the synthetic auxin 3-5-6 TPA, on fruit drop, fruit size and seed development in three lychee (Litchi chinensis) cultivars: Tai So, Fay Zee Sui and Kwai Mai Pink.

Fruit drop in lychee can cause major yield losses in Australia, the severity varying with cultivar and season. Research in China, South Africa and Israel has demonstrated the potential for synthetic auxins used as foliar sprays to reduce fruit drop in lychee. Trials were initiated in Australia to test the efficacy of the synthetic auxin, 3-5-6 Trichloro-2-phridyl-oxyacetic acid (3-5-6 TPA) at 50 ppm on the cultivars Tai So, Fay Zee Sui and Kwai Mai Pink. Results indicate that in most cases the TPA reduced natural fruit drop however the size of the fruit at the time of application affects the response and the ideal application time varies with cultivar; approximately 13 mm fruit length in 'Kwai Mai Pink', 20 mm in 'Fay Zee Sui' and 27 mm in 'Tai So'. If applied too early in 'Tai So', it caused an increase in fruit drop. The TPA was most effective when natural fruit drop was high, reducing fruit drop from 74.7 to 34.9% in 'Kwai Mai Pink' and least effective when natural fruit drop was low. An increase in the percentage of fruit with poorly developed (chicken tongue) seed and slightly larger fruit size was also observed in treated trees.

Optimising between and within family selection for harvest weight in prawns with restricted harvest size.

Manual grading of prawns restricts the number that can be harvested. A restricted harvest size places a limit on the opposing within family and between family sources of selection pressure. A simulation study with inbreeding constrained at 0.5% per generation, a harvest size of 2000, heritability of 0.3, common family environmental effect of 0.1, indicates that maximum response to selection could be achieved with as few as 40 families. Increasing the number of families above 80 may reduce total selection response. It is important to be aware that increasing the number of families may not always yield a greater genetic response.

Population structure, effective population size and adverse effects of stocking in the endangered Australian eastern freshwater cod Maccullochella ikei

Microsatellite markers were used to examine spatio-temporal genetic variation in the endangered eastern freshwater cod Maccullochella ikei in the Clarence River system, eastern Australia. High levels of population structure were detected. A model-based clustering analysis of multilocus genotypes identified four populations that were highly differentiated by F-statistics (FST = 0· 09 − 0· 49; P < 0· 05), suggesting fragmentation and restricted dispersal particularly among upstream sites. Hatchery breeding programmes were used to re-establish locally extirpated populations and to supplement remnant populations. Bayesian and frequency-based analyses of hatchery fingerling samples provided evidence for population admixture in the hatchery, with the majority of parental stock sourced from distinct upstream sites. Comparison between historical and contemporary wild-caught samples showed a significant loss of heterozygosity (21%) and allelic richness (24%) in the Mann and Nymboida Rivers since the commencement of stocking. Fragmentation may have been a causative factor; however, temporal shifts in allele frequencies suggest swamping with hatchery-produced M. ikei has contributed to the genetic decline in the largest wild population. This study demonstrates the importance of using information on genetic variation and population structure in the management of breeding and stocking programmes, particularly for threatened species.

Wood properties and processing outcomes for plantation grown African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) trees from Clare, Queensland (18 and 20 year-old trees) and Katherine, Northern Territory (14 year-old trees).

Khaya senegalensis, African mahogany, a high-value hardwood, was introduced in the Northern Territory (NT) in the 1950s; included in various trials there and at Weipa, Q in the 1960s-1970s; planted on ex mine sites at Weipa (160 ha) until 1985; revived in farm plantings in Queensland and in trials in the NT in the 1990s; adopted for large-scale, annual planting in the Douglas-Daly region, NT from 2006 and is to have the planted area in the NT extended to at least 20,000 ha. The recent serious interest from plantation growers, including Forest Enterprises Australia Ltd (FEA), has seen the establishment of some large scale commercial plantations. FEA initiated the current study to process relatively young plantation stands from both Northern Territory and Queensland plantations to investigate the sawn wood and veneer recovery and quality from trees ranging from 14 years (NT – 36 trees) to 18-20 years (North Queensland – 31 trees). Field measures of tree size and straightness were complemented with log end splitting assessment and cross-sectional disc sample collection for laboratory wood properties measurements including colour and shrinkage. End-splitting scores assessed on sawn logs were relatively low compared to fast grown plantation eucalypts and did not impact processing negatively. Heartwood proportion in individual trees ranged from 50% up to 92 % of butt cross-sectional disc area for the visually-assessed dark coloured central heartwood and lighter coloured transition wood combined. Dark central heartwood proportion was positively related to tree size (R2 = 0.57). Chemical tests failed to assist in determining heartwood – sapwood boundary. Mean basic density of whole disc samples was 658 kg/m3 and ranged among trees from 603 to 712 kg/m3. When freshly sawn, the heartwood of African mahogany was orange-red to red. Transition wood appeared to be pinkish and the sapwood was a pale yellow colour. Once air dried the heartwood colour generally darkens to pinkish-brown or orange-brown and the effect of prolonged time and sun exposure is to darken and change the heartwood to a red-brown colour. A portable colour measurement spectrophotometer was used to objectively assess colour variation in CIE L*, a* and b* values over time with drying and exposure to sunlight. Capacity to predict standard colour values accurately after varying periods of direct sunlight exposure using results obtained on initial air-dried surfaces decreased with increasing time to sun exposure. The predictions are more accurate for L* values which represent brightness than for variation in the a* values (red spectrum). Selection of superior breeding trees for colour is likely to be based on dried samples exposed to sunlight to reliably highlight wood colour differences. A generally low ratio between tangential and radial shrinkages was found, which was reflected in a low incidence of board distortion (particularly cupping) during drying. A preliminary experiment was carried out to investigate the quality of NIR models to predict shrinkage and density. NIR spectra correlated reasonably well with radial shrinkage and air dried density. When calibration models were applied to their validation sets, radial shrinkage was predicted to an accuracy of 76% with Standard Error of Prediction of 0.21%. There was also a strong predictive power for wood density. These are encouraging results suggesting that NIR spectroscopy has good potential to be used as a non-destructive method to predict shrinkage and wood density using 12mm diameter increment core samples. Average green off saw recovery was 49.5% (range 40 to 69%) for Burdekin Agricultural College (BAC) logs and 41.9% (range 20 to 61%) for Katherine (NT) logs. These figures are about 10% higher than compared to 30-year-old Khaya study by Armstrong et al. (2007) however they are inflated as the green boards were not docked to remove wane prior to being tallied. Of the recovered sawn, dried and dressed volume from the BAC logs, based on the cambial face of boards, 27% could potentially be used for select grade, 40% for medium feature grade and 26% for high feature grades. The heart faces had a slightly higher recovery of select (30%) and medium feature (43%) grade boards with a reduction in the volume of high feature (22%) and reject (6%) grade boards. Distribution of board grades for the NT site aged 14 years followed very similar trends to those of the BAC site boards with an average (between facial and cambial face) 27% could potentially be used for select grade, 42% for medium feature grade, 26% for high feature grade and 5% reject. Relatively to some other subtropical eucalypts, there was a low incidence of borer attack. The major grade limiting defects for both medium and high feature grade boards recovered from the BAC site were knots and wane. The presence of large knots may reflect both management practices and the nature of the genetic material at the site. This stand was not managed for timber production with a very late pruning implemented at about age 12 years. The large amount of wane affected boards is indicative of logs with a large taper and the presence of significant sweep. Wane, knots and skip were the major grade limiting defects for the NT site reflecting considerable amounts of sweep with large taper as might be expected in younger trees. The green veneer recovered from billets of seven Khaya trees rotary peeled on a spindleless lathe produced a recovery of 83% of green billet volume. Dried veneer recovery ranged from 40 to 74 % per billet with an average of 64%. All of the recovered grades were suitable for use in structural ply in accordance to AS/NZ 2269: 2008. The majority of veneer sheets recovered from all billets was C grade (27%) with 20% making D grade and 13% B grade. Total dry sliced veneer recovery from the logs of the two largest logs from each location was estimated to be 41.1%. Very positive results have been recorded in this small scale study. The amount of colour development observed and the very reasonable recoveries of both sawn and veneer products, with a good representation of higher grades in the product distribution, is encouraging. The prospects for significant improvement in these results from well managed and productive stands grown for high quality timber should be high. Additionally, the study has shown the utility of non-destructive evaluation techniques for use in tree improvement programs to improve the quality of future plantations. A few trees combined several of the traits desired of individuals for a first breeding population. Fortunately, the two most promising trees (32, 19) had already been selected for breeding on external traits, and grafts of them are established in the seed orchard.

Uncertainty in length measurements of live coral trout: implications for compliance and enforcement of minimum legal size limits.

Report on evidence of shrinkage of live coral trout during professional fishing operations on the Great Barrier Reef in 2000. Excel data includes the following fields: Column A. Fish (fish number from 1 -24) Column B. Bin (1-8, container the fish was held in during the experiment) Column C. Measure (1-7, number of the measurement of each fish) Column D. Observer (1 or 2, making the measurement) Column E. Time 2 Column F. Time (time of the day the measurement was made) Column G. FL (Fork Length) Column H. TL (Total Length) Column I. Difference (difference in length between measures) Column J. Order Column K. Temperature (surface water temp under the boat)