19 resultados para predictor endogeneity
em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture
Resumo:
Scrotal circumference (SC) is a simple, non-invasive measurement commonly used to evaluate bull breeding potential although its validity as a predictor of fertility is questionable (Holroyd, 1998). SC is highly heritable but varies with breed and animal factors such as condition, live weight and age. As an indicator of fertility, recommended SC values range broadly from 30cm to 38cm (Miller, 1992). It is assumed that SC accurately reflects testes mass (TM) which may be related to direct measures of fertility such as spermatogenesis (Entwistle, 1992). The SC measurements made here test the assumption that SC, used to estimate testes volume (TV), is directly related to TM. Miller (1992) reported a value of 261mm as the SC threshold for puberty. We have studied serial SC measurements so as to devise a more accurate means of using SC to determine puberty.
Resumo:
By quantifying the effects of climatic variability in the sheep grazing lands of north western and western Queensland, the key biological rates of mortality and reproduction can be predicted for sheep. These rates are essential components of a decision support package which can prove a useful management tool for producers, especially if they can easily obtain the necessary predictors. When the sub-models of the GRAZPLAN ruminant biology process model were re-parameterised from Queensland data along with an empirical equation predicting the probability of ewes mating added, the process model predicted the probability of pregnancy well (86% variation explained). Predicting mortality from GRAZPLAN was less successful but an empirical equation based on relative condition of the animal (a measure based on liveweight), pregnancy status and age explained 78% of the variation in mortalities. A crucial predictor in these models was liveweight which is not often recorded on producer properties. Empirical models based on climatic and pasture conditions estimated from the pasture production model GRASP, predicted marking and mortality rates for Mitchell grass (Astrebla sp.) pastures (81% and 63% of the variation explained). These prediction equations were tested against independent data from producer properties and the model successfully validated for Mitchell grass communities.
Resumo:
Infectious coryza is an upper respiratory tract disease of chickens with the major impact occurring in multi-age flocks. We investigated the relationship between the level of antibodies, as detected by a haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay, in infectious coryza-vaccinated chickens and the protection against challenge in those chickens. In one experiment, chickens given a single dose of either of two infectious coryza vaccines lacked a detectable HI response to vaccination but showed significant levels of protection 11 weeks after vaccination. In contrast, in chickens given two doses of an infectious coryza vaccine and challenged 3 weeks after the second vaccine dose, there was a strong serological response with 36/40 birds having a HI titre of 1/20 or greater. In this trial there was an apparent relationship between titre and subsequent protection, with none of the 32 chickens with a titre of 1/40 or 1/80 showing any clinical signs and only one of the same group yielding the challenge organism on culture. In contrast, three of the four vaccinated chickens with a HI titre less than 1/5 developed the typical clinical signs of coryza and yielded the challenge organism on culture. Overall, our results suggest that HI titres cannot be regarded as a definitive predictor of vaccine efficacy. We suggest that the vaccination-challenge trial is the gold standard for the evaluation of the immune response to infectious coryza vaccines.
Resumo:
The amount and timing of early wet-season rainfall are important for the management of many agricultural industries in north Australia. With this in mind, a wet-season onset date is defined based on the accumulation of rainfall to a predefined threshold, starting from 1 September, for each square of a 1° gridded analysis of daily rainfall across the region. Consistent with earlier studies, the interannual variability of the onset dates is shown to be well related to the immediately preceding July-August Southern Oscillation index (SOI). Based on this relationship, a forecast method using logistic regression is developed to predict the probability that onset will occur later than the climatological mean date. This method is expanded to also predict the probabilities that onset will be later than any of a range of threshold dates around the climatological mean. When assessed using cross-validated hindcasts, the skill of the predictions exceeds that of climatological forecasts in the majority of locations in north Australia, especially in the Top End region, Cape York, and central Queensland. At times of strong anomalies in the July-August SOI, the forecasts are reliably emphatic. Furthermore, predictions using tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as the predictor are also tested. While short-lead (July-August predictor) forecasts are more skillful using the SOI, long-lead (May-June predictor) forecasts are more skillful using Pacific SSTs, indicative of the longer-term memory present in the ocean.
Resumo:
Eve White, Anna Barnes and Gabrielle Vivian-Smith recently published their paper 'Dispersal and establishment of bird-dispersed weed and native species in early successional subtropical habitats' in Proceedings of the 16th Australian Weeds Conference. Eve also presented this paper at the conference. They investigated patterns of dispersal and establishment of bird-dispersed weeds and native species in early successional habitats in northern New South Wales. Patterns varied among growth forms, between native species and weeds, and among vegetation types. Their results indicated that the number of seeds dropped by birds is not necessarily a good predictor of recruitment and that post-dispersal factors, such as microsite characteristics, may be more important influences on seedling recruitment. This knowledge will assist with designing management strategies for bird-dispersed weeds in natural areas.
Resumo:
Invasive bird-dispersed plants often share the same suite of dispersers as co-occurring native species, resulting in a complex management issue. Integrated management strategies could incorporate manipulation of dispersal or establishment processes. To improve our understanding of these processes, we quantified seed rain, recruit and seed bank density, and species richness for bird-dispersed invasive and native species in three early successional subtropical habitats in eastern Australia: tree regrowth, shrub regrowth and native restoration plantings. We investigated the effects of environmental factors (leaf area index (LAI), distance to edge, herbaceous ground cover and distance to nearest neighbour) on seed rain, seed bank and recruit abundance. Propagule availability was not always a good predictor of recruitment. For instance, although native tree seed rain density was similar, and species richness was higher, in native plantings, compared with tree regrowth, recruit density and species richness were lower. Native plantings also received lower densities of invasive tree seed rain than did tree regrowth habitats, but supported a similar density of invasive tree recruits. Invasive shrub seed rain was recorded in highest densities in shrub regrowth sites, but recruit density was similar between habitats. We discuss the role of microsite characteristics in influencing post-dispersal processes and recruit composition, and suggest ways of manipulating these processes as part of an integrated management strategy for bird-dispersed weeds in natural areas.
Resumo:
Management of the commercial harvest of kangaroos relies on quotas set annually as a proportion of regular estimates of population size. Surveys to generate these estimates are expensive and, in the larger states, logistically difficult; a cheaper alternative is desirable. Rainfall is a disappointingly poor predictor of kangaroo rate of increase in many areas, but harvest statistics (sex ratio, carcass weight, skin size and animals shot per unit time) potentially offer cost-effective indirect monitoring of population abundance (and therefore trend) and status (i.e. under-or overharvest). Furthermore, because harvest data are collected continuously and throughout the harvested areas, they offer the promise of more intensive and more representative coverage of harvest areas than aerial surveys do. To be useful, harvest statistics would need to have a close and known relationship with either population size or harvest rate. We assessed this using longterm (11-22 years) data for three kangaroo species (Macropus rufus, M. giganteus and M. fuliginosus) and common wallaroos (M. robustus) across South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland. Regional variation in kangaroo body size, population composition, shooter efficiency and selectivity required separate analyses in different regions. Two approaches were taken. First, monthly harvest statistics were modelled as a function of a number of explanatory variables, including kangaroo density, harvest rate and rainfall. Second, density and harvest rate were modelled as a function of harvest statistics. Both approaches incorporated a correlated error structure. Many but not all regions had relationships with sufficient precision to be useful for indirect monitoring. However, there was no single relationship that could be applied across an entire state or across species. Combined with rainfall-driven population models and applied at a regional level, these relationships could be used to reduce the frequency of aerial surveys without compromising decisions about harvest management.
Resumo:
Long-running datasets from aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus giganteus, Macropus [uliginosus, Macropus robustus and Macropus rufus) across Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia have been analysed, seeking better predictors of rates of increase which would allow aerial surveys to be undertaken less frequently than annually. Early models of changes in kangaroo numbers in response to rainfall had shown great promise, but much variability. We used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) instead, reasoning that changes in pasture condition would provide a better predictor than rainfall. However, except at a fine scale, NDVI proved no better; although two linked periods of rainfall proved useful predictors of rates of increase, this was only in some areas for some species. The good correlations reported in earlier studies were a consequence of data dominated by large droughtinduced adult mortality, whereas over a longer time frame and where changes between years are less dramatic, juvenile survival has the strongest influence on dynamics. Further, harvesting, density dependence and competition with domestic stock are additional and important influences and it is now clear that kangaroo movement has a greater influence on population dynamics than had been assumed. Accordingly, previous conclusions about kangaroo populations as simple systems driven by rainfall need to be reassessed. Examination of this large dataset has permitted descriptions of shifts in distribution of three species across eastern Australia, changes in dispersion in response to rainfall, and an evaluation of using harvest statistics as an index of density and harvest rate. These results have been combined into a risk assessment and decision theory framework to identify optimal monitoring strategies.
Resumo:
Coastal seagrass habitats in tropical and subtropical regions support aggregations of resident green turtles (Chelonia mydas) from several genetically distinct breeding populations. Migration of individuals to their respective dispersed breeding sites provides a complex pattern of migratory connectivity among nesting and feeding habitats of this species. An understanding of this pattern is important in regions where the persistence of populations is under threat from anthropogenic impacts. The present study uses mitochondrial DNA and mixed-stock analyses to assess the connectivity among seven feeding grounds across the north Australian coast and adjacent areas and 17 genetically distinct breeding populations from the Indo-Pacific region. It was hypothesised that large and geographically proximate breeding populations would dominate at nearby feeding grounds. As expected, each sampled feeding area appears to support multiple breeding populations, with two aggregations dominated by a local breeding population. Geographic distance between breeding and feeding habitat strongly influenced whether a breeding population contributed to a feeding ground (wi = 0.654); however, neither distance nor size of a breeding population was a good predictor of the extent of their contribution. The differential proportional contributions suggest the impact of anthropogenic mortality at feeding grounds should be assessed on a case-by-case basis.
Resumo:
Background: The territorial fishing zones of Australia and Indonesia are contiguous to the north of Australia in the Timor and Arafura Seas and in the Indian Ocean to the north of Christmas Island. The area surrounding the shared boundary consists of a variety of bio-diverse marine habitats including shallow continental shelf waters, oceanic trenches and numerous offshore islands. Both countries exploit a variety of fisheries species, including whaler (Carcharhinus spp.) and hammerhead sharks (Sphyrna spp.). Despite their differences in social and financial arrangements, the two countries are motivated to develop complementary co-management practices to achieve resource sustainability. An essential starting point is knowledge of the degree of population subdivision, and hence fisheries stock status, in exploited species. Results: Populations of four commercially harvested shark species (Carcharhinus obscurus, Carcharhinus sorrah, Prionace glauca, Sphyrna lewini) were sampled from northern Australia and central Indonesia. Neutral genetic markers (mitochondrial DNA control region sequence and allelic variation at co-dominant microsatellite loci) revealed genetic subdivision between Australian and Indonesian populations of C. sorrah. Further research is needed to address the possibility of genetic subdivision among C. obscurus populations. There was no evidence of genetic subdivision for P. glauca and S. lewini populations, but the sampling represented a relatively small part of their distributional range. For these species, more detailed analyses of population genetic structure is recommended in the future. Conclusion: Cooperative management between Australia and Indonesia is the best option at present for P. glauca and S. lewini, while C. sorrah and C. obscurus should be managed independently. On-going research on these and other exploited shark and ray species is strongly recommended. Biological and ecological similarity between species may not be a predictor of population genetic structure, so species-specific studies are recommended to provide new data to assist with sustainable fisheries management.
Resumo:
Sperm chromatin status was assessed in 565 Zebu and Zebu crossbred beef bulls in extensive tropical environments using the sperm chromatin structure assay (SCSA). The SCSA involved exposure of sperm to acid hydrolysis for 0.5 or 5.0 minutes, followed by flow cytometry to ascertain relative amounts of double-stranded (normal) and single-stranded (denatured) DNA, which was used to generate a DNA fragmentation index (%DFI). With conventional SCSA (0.5-minute SCSA), 513 bulls (91%) had <15 %DFI, 24 bulls (4%) had 15 to 27 %DFI, and 28 bulls (5%) had >27 %DFI. In 5.0-minute SCSA, 432 bulls (76%) had <15 %DFI, 68 bulls (12%) had 15 to 27 %DFI and 65 bulls (12%) had >27 %DFI. For most bulls, the SCSA was repeatable on two to four occasions; however, because most bulls had <15 %DFI, repeatability of the SCSA will need to be determined in a larger number of bulls in the 15 to 27 %DFI and >27 %DFI categories. The %DFI was negatively correlated with several bull semen parameters and the strongest negative correlation was with normal sperm. There was a strong positive correlation between %DFI and sperm head abnormalities. Based on these findings, most Zebu beef bulls in extensive tropical environments had relatively stable sperm chromatin. Based on the apparent negative correlations with conventional semen parameters, we inferred that the SCSA measured a unique feature of sperm quality, which has also been suggested for other species. Further studies on the relationships between sperm chromatin stability and fertility are required in beef bulls before chromatin status can be used as an additional predictor of the siring capacity of individual bulls in extensive multiple-sire herds. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Mixed species plantations using native trees are increasingly being considered for sustainable timber production. Successful application of mixed species forestry systems requires knowledge of the potential spatial interaction between species in order to minimise the chance of dominance and suppression and to maximise wood production. Here, we examined species performances across 52 experimental plots of tree mixtures established on cleared rainforest land to analyse relationships between the growth of component species and climate and soil conditions. We derived site index (SI) equations for ten priority species to evaluate performance and site preferences. Variation in SI of focus species demonstrated that there are strong species-specific responses to climate and soil variables. The best predictor of tree growth for rainforest species Elaeocarpus grandis and Flindersia brayleyana was soil type, as trees grew significantly better on well-draining than on poorly drained soil profiles. Both E. grandis and Eucalyptus pellita showed strong growth response to variation in mean rain days per month. Our study generates understanding of the relative performance of species in mixed species plantations in the Wet Tropics of Australia and improves our ability to predict species growth compatibilities at potential planting sites within the region. Given appropriate species selections and plantation design, mixed plantations of high-value native timber species are capable of sustaining relatively high productivity at a range of sites up to age 10 years, and may offer a feasible approach for large-scale reforestation.
Resumo:
Pseudocercospora macadamiae Beilharz, Mayers and Pascoe infects macadamia fruit via stomata causing husk spot disease. Information on the variability of fruit stomatal abundance, its association with diseased fruit pericarps (sticktights) that are retained in the tree canopy, and its influence on the husk spot intensity (incidence, severity and lesion number) among macadamia genotypes is lacking. We examined a total of 230 macadamia trees comprising 19 cultivars, 56 wild germplasm accessions and 40 breeding progeny, for the prevalence of sticktights and husk spot intensity over three production seasons. We observed a strong association between the prevalence of sticktights and disease intensity indicating its usefulness as a predictor of husk spot and as a useful phenotypic trait for husk spot resistance selection in breeding programmes. Similarly, stomatal abundance varied among macadamia genotypes, and a significant linear relationship (P < 0.001; 93%) was observed between fruit stomatal abundance and husk spot for all the macadamia genotypes analysed, confirming the utility of that trait for disease resistance screening. The genotypes were grouped into disease resistance groups. Correlations between fruit stomatal abundance, disease intensity and prevalence of sticktights revealed that the numbers of sticktights, and relative stomatal abundance were the main factors influencing the intensity of husk spot among macadamia genotypes. This is the first comprehensive study of natural variation of stomatal abundance in Macadamia species that reveals genetic variation, and provides relevant relationships with disease intensity and the prevalence of sticktights. The phenotypic plant traits indentified in this study may serve as selection tools for disease resistance screening in macadamia breeding programmes.
Resumo:
Post-release survival of line-caught pearl perch (Glaucosoma scapulare) was assessed via field experiments where fish were angled using methods similar to those used by commercial, recreational and charter fishers. One hundred and eighty-three individuals were caught during four experiments, of which >91% survived up to three days post-capture. Hook location was found to be the best predictor of survival, with the survival of throat- or stomach-hooked pearl perch significantly (P < 0.05) lower than those hooked in either the mouth or lip. Post-release survival was similar for both legal (≥35 cm) and sub-legal (<35 cm) pearl perch, while those individuals showing no signs of barotrauma were more likely to survive in the short term. Examination of the swim bladders in the laboratory, combined with observations in the field, revealed that swim bladders rupture during ascent from depth allowing swim bladder gases to escape into the gut cavity. As angled fish approach the surface, the alimentary tract ruptures near the anus allowing swim bladder gases to escape the gut cavity. As a result, very few pearl perch exhibit barotrauma symptoms and no barotrauma mitigation strategies were recommended. The results of this study show that pearl perch are relatively resilient to catch-and-release suggesting that post-release mortality would not contribute significantly to total fishing mortality. We recommend the use of circle hooks, fished actively on tight lines, combined with minimal handling in order to maximise the post-release survival of pearl perch.
Resumo:
The root-lesion nematode, Pratylenchus thornei, can reduce wheat yields by >50%. Although this nematode has a broad host range, crop rotation can be an effective tool for its management if the host status of crops and cultivars is known. The summer crops grown in the northern grain region of Australia are poorly characterised for their resistance to P. thornei and their role in crop sequencing to improve wheat yields. In a 4-year field experiment, we prepared plots with high or low populations of P. thornei by growing susceptible wheat or partially resistant canaryseed (Phalaris canariensis); after an 11-month, weed-free fallow, several cultivars of eight summer crops were grown. Following another 15-month, weed-free fallow, P. thornei-intolerant wheat cv. Strzelecki was grown. Populations of P. thornei were determined to 150 cm soil depth throughout the experiment. When two partially resistant crops were grown in succession, e.g. canaryseed followed by panicum (Setaria italica), P. thornei populations were <739/kg soil and subsequent wheat yields were 3245 kg/ha. In contrast, after two susceptible crops, e.g. wheat followed by soybean, P. thornei populations were 10 850/kg soil and subsequent wheat yields were just 1383 kg/ha. Regression analysis showed a linear, negative response of wheat biomass and grain yield with increasing P. thornei populations and a predicted loss of 77% for biomass and 62% for grain yield. The best predictor of wheat yield loss was P. thornei populations at 0-90 cm soil depth. Crop rotation can be used to reduce P. thornei populations and increase wheat yield, with greatest gains being made following two partially resistant crops grown sequentially.