The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: an assessment of Teleonemia scrupulosa and Octotoma scabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia

Understanding the effects of different types and quality of data on bioclimatic modeling predictions is vital to ascertaining the value of existing models, and to improving future models. Bioclimatic models were constructed using the CLIMEX program, using different data types – seasonal dynamics, geographic (overseas) distribution, and a combination of the two – for two biological control agents for the major weed Lantana camara L. in Australia. The models for one agent, Teleonemia scrupulosa Stål (Hemiptera:Tingidae) were based on a higher quality and quantity of data than the models for the other agent, Octotoma scabripennis Guérin-Méneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Predictions of the geographic distribution for Australia showed that T. scrupulosa models exhibited greater accuracy with a progressive improvement from seasonal dynamics data, to the model based on overseas distribution, and finally the model combining the two data types. In contrast, O. scabripennis models were of low accuracy, and showed no clear trends across the various model types. These case studies demonstrate the importance of high quality data for developing models, and of supplementing distributional data with species seasonal dynamics data wherever possible. Seasonal dynamics data allows the modeller to focus on the species response to climatic trends, while distributional data enables easier fitting of stress parameters by restricting the species envelope to the described distribution. It is apparent that CLIMEX models based on low quality seasonal dynamics data, together with a small quantity of distributional data, are of minimal value in predicting the spatial extent of species distribution.

Status assessment of water use research in turf growth and maintenance.

The strategic objectives of Turf Australia (formerly the Turf Producers Association (TPA)) relating to water use in turf are to: • Source and collate information to support the case for adequate access to water for the Turf production and maintenance sectors and • Compile information generated into a convincing communication package that can be readily used by the industry in its advocacy programs (to government, regulators, media etc) More specifically, the turfgrass industry needs unbiased scientific evidence of the value of healthy grass in our environment. It needs to promote the use of adequate water even during drought periods to maintain quality turfgrass, which provides many benefits to the broader community including cooling the environment, saving energy and encouraging healthy lifestyles. The many environmental, social and health benefits of living turfgrass have been the subject of numerous investigations beyond the scope of this review. However further research is needed to fully understand the economic returns achievable by the judicious use of water for the maintenance of healthy turfgrass. Consumer education, backed by scientific evidence will highlight the “false economy” in allowing turfgrass to wither and die during conditions which require high level water restrictions. This report presents a review of the literature pertaining to research in the field of turf water use. The purpose of the review was to better understand the scope and nature of existing research results on turf water relations so that knowledge gaps could be identified in achieving the above strategic objectives of the TPA. Research to date has been found to be insufficient to compile a convincing communication package as described. However, identified knowledge gaps can now be addressed through targeted research. Information derived from targeted research will provide valuable material for education of the end user of turfgrass. Recommendations have been developed, based on the results of this desktop review. It was determined that future research in the field of turf irrigation needs to focus on a number of key factors which directly or indirectly affect the relationship between turfgrass and water use. These factors are: • Climate • Cultivar • Quality • Site use requirements • Establishment and management The overarching recommendation is to develop a strategic plan for turfgrass water relations research based around the five determinants of turf water use listed above. This plan should ensure research under these five categories is integrated into a holistic approach by which the consumer can be guided in species and/or cultivar choices as well as best management practices with respect to turfgrass water relations. Worsening drought cycles and limited supply of water for irrigation were the key factors driving every research project reviewed in this report. Subsidence of the most recent (or current) drought conditions in Australia should not be viewed by the turf industry as a reason to withdraw support or funding for research in this area. Drought conditions, limited domestic water availability and urban water restrictions will return in Australia albeit in 5, 10 or 20 years time and the turf industry has an opportunity to prepare for that time.

Indicator traits in bulls that are predictive of female fertility in cattle

Indicator traits in bulls that are predictive of female fertility in cattle.

Improvement and Maintenance of Turf Demonstration Plots

DEEDI have built and maintained a living library of turf grass selections of 138 different turf cultivars. Material is also preserved in tubs in a protected growing environment. The maintenance and ongoing upgrading of these plots requires significant resources to maintain their integrity. As the plots have been in place since 2000, they are currently in need of significant repair. This project will assist in the improvement and maintenance of the turf library for the benefit of the turf industry producers and Australian turf research more generally.

Evaluation of super-heated steam vacuum drying viability and development of a predictive drying model for four Australian hardwood species.

The results of drying trials show that vacuum drying produces material of the same or better quality than is currently being produced by conventional methods within 41 to 66 % of the drying time, depending on the species. Economic analysis indicates positive or negative results depending on the species and the size of drying operation. Definite economic benefits exist by vacuum drying over conventional drying for all operation sizes, in terms of drying quality, time and economic viability, for E. marginata and E. pilularis. The same applies for vacuum drying C. citriodora and E. obliqua in larger drying operations (kiln capacity 50 m3 or above), but not for smaller operations at this stage. Further schedule refinement has the ability to reduce drying times further and may improve the vacuum drying viability of the latter species in smaller operations.

Predictive modelling to aid the regional-scale management of a vertebrate pest

Extensive resources are allocated to managing vertebrate pests, yet spatial understanding of pest threats, and how they respond to management, is limited at the regional scale where much decision-making is undertaken. We provide regional-scale spatial models and management guidance for European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in a 260,791 km(2) region in Australia by determining habitat suitability, habitat susceptibility and the effects of the primary rabbit management options (barrier fence, shooting and baiting and warren ripping) or changing predation or disease control levels. A participatory modelling approach was used to develop a Bayesian network which captured the main drivers of suitability and spread, which in turn was linked spatially to develop high resolution risk maps. Policy-makers, rabbit managers and technical experts were responsible for defining the questions the model needed to address, and for subsequently developing and parameterising the model. Habitat suitability was determined by conditions required for warren-building and by above-ground requirements, such as food and harbour, and habitat susceptibility by the distance from current distributions, habitat suitability, and the costs of traversing habitats of different quality. At least one-third of the region had a high probability of being highly suitable (support high rabbit densities), with the model supported by validation. Habitat susceptibility was largely restricted by the current known rabbit distribution. Warren ripping was the most effective control option as warrens were considered essential for rabbit persistence. The anticipated increase in disease resistance was predicted to increase the probability of moderately suitable habitat becoming highly suitable, but not increase the at-risk area. We demonstrate that it is possible to build spatial models to guide regional-level management of vertebrate pests which use the best available knowledge and capture fine spatial-scale processes.