26 resultados para prediction error
em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture
Resumo:
The Brix content of pineapple fruit can be non-invasively predicted from the second derivative of near infrared reflectance spectra. Correlations obtained using a NIRSystems 6500 spectrophotometer through multiple linear regression and modified partial least squares analyses using a post-dispersive configuration were comparable with that from a pre-dispersive configuration in terms of accuracy (e.g. coefficient of determination, R2, 0.73; standard error of cross validation, SECV, 1.01°Brix). The effective depth of sample assessed was slightly greater using the post-dispersive technique (about 20 mm for pineapple fruit), as expected in relation to the higher incident light intensity, relative to the pre-dispersive configuration. The effect of such environmental variables as temperature, humidity and external light, and instrumental variables such as the number of scans averaged to form a spectrum, were considered with respect to the accuracy and precision of the measurement of absorbance at 876 nm, as a key term in the calibration for Brix, and predicted Brix. The application of post-dispersive near infrared technology to in-line assessment of intact fruit in a packing shed environment is discussed.
Resumo:
Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can be used for the on-line, non-invasive assessment of fruit for eating quality attributes such as total soluble solids (TSS). The robustness of multivariate calibration models, based on NIRS in a partial transmittance optical geometry, for the assessment of TSS of intact rockmelons (Cucumis melo) was assessed. The mesocarp TSS was highest around the fruit equator and increased towards the seed cavity. Inner mesocarp TSS levels decreased towards both the proximal and distal ends of the fruit, but more so towards the proximal end. The equatorial region of the fruit was chosen as representative of the fruit for near infrared assessment of TSS. The spectral window for model development was optimised at 695-1045 nm, and the data pre-treatment procedure was optimised to second-derivative absorbance without scatter correction. The 'global' modified partial least squares (MPLS) regression modelling procedure of WINISI (ver. 1.04) was found to be superior with respect to root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) and bias for model predictions of TSS across seasons, compared with the 'local' MPLS regression procedure. Updating of the model with samples selected randomly from the independent validation population demonstrated improvement in both RMSEP and bias with addition of approximately 15 samples.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: The inability to consistently guarantee internal quality of horticulture produce is of major importance to the primary producer, marketers and ultimately the consumer. Currently, commercial avocado maturity estimation is based on the destructive assessment of percentage dry matter (%DM), and sometimes percentage oil, both of which are highly correlated with maturity. In this study the utility of Fourier transform (FT) near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated for the first time as a non-invasive technique for estimating %DM of whole intact 'Hass' avocado fruit. Partial least squares regression models were developed from the diffuse reflectance spectra to predict %DM, taking into account effects of intra-seasonal variation and orchard conditions. RESULTS: It was found that combining three harvests (early, mid and late) from a single farm in the major production district of central Queensland yielded a predictive model for %DM with a coefficient of determination for the validation set of 0.76 and a root mean square error of prediction of 1.53% for DM in the range 19.4-34.2%. CONCLUSION: The results of the study indicate the potential of FT-NIRS in diffuse reflectance mode to non-invasively predict %DM of whole 'Hass' avocado fruit. When the FT-NIRS system was assessed on whole avocados, the results compared favourably against data from other NIRS systems identified in the literature that have been used in research applications on avocados.
Resumo:
Recent decreases in costs, and improvements in performance, of silicon array detectors open a range of potential applications of relevance to plant physiologists, associated with spectral analysis in the visible and short-wave near infra-red (far-red) spectrum. The performance characteristics of three commercially available ‘miniature’ spectrometers based on silicon array detectors operating in the 650–1050-nm spectral region (MMS1 from Zeiss, S2000 from Ocean Optics, and FICS from Oriel, operated with a Larry detector) were compared with respect to the application of non-invasive prediction of sugar content of fruit using near infra-red spectroscopy (NIRS). The FICS–Larry gave the best wavelength resolution; however, the narrow slit and small pixel size of the charge-coupled device detector resulted in a very low sensitivity, and this instrumentation was not considered further. Wavelength resolution was poor with the MMS1 relative to the S2000 (e.g. full width at half maximum of the 912 nm Hg peak, 13 and 2 nm for the MMS1 and S2000, respectively), but the large pixel height of the array used in the MMS1 gave it sensitivity comparable to the S2000. The signal-to-signal standard error ratio of spectra was greater by an order of magnitude with the MMS1, relative to the S2000, at both near saturation and low light levels. Calibrations were developed using reflectance spectra of filter paper soaked in range of concentrations (0–20% w/v) of sucrose, using a modified partial least squares procedure. Calibrations developed with the MMS1 were superior to those developed using the S2000 (e.g. coefficient of correlation of 0.90 and 0.62, and standard error of cross-validation of 1.9 and 5.4%, respectively), indicating the importance of high signal to noise ratio over wavelength resolution to calibration accuracy. The design of a bench top assembly using the MMS1 for the non-invasive assessment of mesocarp sugar content of (intact) melon fruit is reported in terms of light source and angle between detector and light source, and optimisation of math treatment (derivative condition and smoothing function).
Resumo:
Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromone and fermenting bread dough were used to monitor seasonal incidence and abundance of the ripening fruit pests, Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), C. mutilatus Erichson and C. davidsoni Dobson in stone fruit orchards in the Leeton district of southern New South Wales during five seasons (1991-96). Adult beetles were trapped from September-May, but abundance varied considerably between years with the amount of rainfall in December-January having a major influence on population size and damage potential during the canning peach harvest (late February-March). Below average rainfall in December-January was associated with mean trap catches of < 10 beetles/trap/week in low dose pheromone traps during the harvest period in 1991/92 and 1993/94 and no reported damage to ripening fruit. Rainfall in December-January 1992/93 was more than double the average and mean trap catches ranged from 8-27 beetles/week during the harvest period with substantial damage to the peach crop. December-January rainfall was also above average in 1994/95 and 1995/96 and means of 50-300 beetles/trap/week were recorded in high dose pheromone traps during harvest periods. Carpophilus spp. caused economic damage to peach crops in both seasons. These data indicate that it may be possible to predict the likelihood of Carpophilus beetle damage to ripening stone fruit in inland areas of southern Australia, by routine pheromone-based monitoring of beetle populations and summer temperatures and rainfall.
Resumo:
The robustness of multivariate calibration models, based on near infrared spectroscopy, for the assessment of total soluble solids (TSS) and dry matter (DM) of intact mandarin fruit (Citrus reticulata cv. Imperial) was assessed. TSS calibration model performance was validated in terms of prediction of populations of fruit not in the original population (different harvest days from a single tree, different harvest localities, different harvest seasons). Of these, calibration performance was most affected by validation across seasons (signal to noise statistic on root mean squared error of prediction of 3.8, compared with 20 and 13 for locality and harvest day, respectively). Procedures for sample selection from the validation population for addition to the calibration population (‘model updating’) were considered for both TSS and DM models. Random selection from the validation group worked as well as more sophisticated selection procedures, with approximately 20 samples required. Models that were developed using samples at a range of temperatures were robust in validation for TSS and DM.
Resumo:
In this study, we assessed a broad range of barley breeding lines and commercial varieties by three hardness methods (two particle size methods and one crush resistance method (SKCS—Single-Kernel Characterization System), grown at multiple sites to see if there was variation in barley hardness and if that variation was genetic or environmentally controlled. We also developed near-infrared reflectance (NIR) calibrations for these three hardness methods to ascertain if NIR technology was suitable for rapid screening of breeding lines or specific populations. In addition, we used this data to identify genetic regions that may be associated with hardness. There were significant (p<0.05) genetic effects for the three hardness methods. There were also environmental effects, possibly linked to the effect of protein on hardness, i.e. increasing protein resulted in harder grain. Heritability values were calculated at >85% for all methods. The NIR calibrations, with R2 values of >90%, had Standard Error of Prediction values of 0.90, 72 and 4.0, respectively, for the three hardness methods. These equations were used to predict hardness values of a mapping population which resulted in genetic markers being identified on all chromosomes but chromosomes 2H, 3H, 5H, 6H and 7H had markers with significant LOD scores. The two regions on 5H were on the distal end of both the long and short arms. The region that showed significant LOD score was on the long arm. However, the region on the short arm associated with the hardness (hordoindoline) genes did not have significant LOD scores. The results indicate that barley hardness is influenced by both genotype and environment and that the trait is heritable, which would allow breeders to develop very hard or soft varieties if required. In addition, NIR was shown to be a reliable tool for screening for hardness. While the data set used in this study has a relatively low variation in hardness, the tools developed could be applied to breeding populations that have large variation in barley grain hardness.
Resumo:
Site index prediction models are an important aid for forest management and planning activities. This paper introduces a multiple regression model for spatially mapping and comparing site indices for two Pinus species (Pinus elliottii Engelm. and Queensland hybrid, a P. elliottii x Pinus caribaea Morelet hybrid) based on independent variables derived from two major sources: g-ray spectrometry (potassium (K), thorium (Th), and uranium (U)) and a digital elevation model (elevation, slope, curvature, hillshade, flow accumulation, and distance to streams). In addition, interpolated rainfall was tested. Species were coded as a dichotomous dummy variable; interaction effects between species and the g-ray spectrometric and geomorphologic variables were considered. The model explained up to 60% of the variance of site index and the standard error of estimate was 1.9 m. Uranium, elevation, distance to streams, thorium, and flow accumulation significantly correlate to the spatial variation of the site index of both species, and hillshade, curvature, elevation and slope accounted for the extra variability of one species over the other. The predicted site indices varied between 20.0 and 27.3 m for P. elliottii, and between 23.1 and 33.1 m for Queensland hybrid; the advantage of Queensland hybrid over P. elliottii ranged from 1.8 to 6.8 m, with the mean at 4.0 m. This compartment-based prediction and comparison study provides not only an overview of forest productivity of the whole plantation area studied but also a management tool at compartment scale.
Resumo:
Modeling of cultivar x trial effects for multienvironment trials (METs) within a mixed model framework is now common practice in many plant breeding programs. The factor analytic (FA) model is a parsimonious form used to approximate the fully unstructured form of the genetic variance-covariance matrix in the model for MET data. In this study, we demonstrate that the FA model is generally the model of best fit across a range of data sets taken from early generation trials in a breeding program. In addition, we demonstrate the superiority of the FA model in achieving the most common aim of METs, namely the selection of superior genotypes. Selection is achieved using best linear unbiased predictions (BLUPs) of cultivar effects at each environment, considered either individually or as a weighted average across environments. In practice, empirical BLUPs (E-BLUPs) of cultivar effects must be used instead of BLUPs since variance parameters in the model must be estimated rather than assumed known. While the optimal properties of minimum mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) and maximum correlation between true and predicted effects possessed by BLUPs do not hold for E-BLUPs, a simulation study shows that E-BLUPs perform well in terms of MSEP.
Resumo:
Grass (monocots) and non-grass (dicots) proportions in ruminant diets are important nutritionally because the non-grasses are usually higher in nutritive value, particularly protein, than the grasses, especially in tropical pastures. For ruminants grazing tropical pastures where the grasses are C-4 species and most non-grasses are C-3 species, the ratio of C-13/C-12 in diet and faeces, measured as delta C-13 parts per thousand, is proportional to dietary non-grass%. This paper describes the development of a faecal near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy calibration equation for predicting faecal delta C-13 from which dietary grass and non-grass proportions can be calculated. Calibration development used cattle faeces derived from diets containing only C-3 non-grass and C-4 grass components, and a series of expansion and validation steps was employed to develop robustness and predictive reliability. The final calibration equation contained 1637 samples and faecal delta C-13 range (parts per thousand) of [12.27]-[27.65]. Calibration statistics were: standard error of calibration (SEC) of 0.78, standard error of cross-validation (SECV) of 0.80, standard deviation (SD) of reference values of 3.11 and R-2 of 0.94. Validation statistics for the final calibration equation applied to 60 samples were: standard error of prediction (SEP) of 0.87, bias of -0.15, R-2 of 0.92 and RPD of 3.16. The calibration equation was also tested on faeces from diets containing C-4 non-grass species or temperate C-3 grass species. Faecal delta C-13 predictions indicated that the spectral basis of the calibration was not related to C-13/C-12 ratios per se but to consistent differences between grasses and non-grasses in chemical composition and that the differences were modified by photosynthetic pathway. Thus, although the calibration equation could not be used to make valid faecal delta C-13 predictions when the diet contained either C-3 grass or C-4 non-grass, it could be used to make useful estimates of dietary non-grass proportions. It could also be ut :sed to make useful estimates of non-grass in mixed C-3 grass/non-grass diets by applying a modified formula to calculate non-grass from predicted faecal delta C-13. The development of a robust faecal-NIR calibration equation for estimating non-grass proportions in the diets of grazing cattle demonstrated a novel and useful application of NIR spectroscopy in agriculture.
Resumo:
The use of near infrared (NIR) hyperspectral imaging and hyperspectral image analysis for distinguishing between hard, intermediate and soft maize kernels from inbred lines was evaluated. NIR hyperspectral images of two sets (12 and 24 kernels) of whole maize kernels were acquired using a Spectral Dimensions MatrixNIR camera with a spectral range of 960-1662 nm and a sisuChema SWIR (short wave infrared) hyperspectral pushbroom imaging system with a spectral range of 1000-2498 nm. Exploratory principal component analysis (PCA) was used on absorbance images to remove background, bad pixels and shading. On the cleaned images. PCA could be used effectively to find histological classes including glassy (hard) and floury (soft) endosperm. PCA illustrated a distinct difference between glassy and floury endosperm along principal component (PC) three on the MatrixNIR and PC two on the sisuChema with two distinguishable clusters. Subsequently partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) was applied to build a classification model. The PLS-DA model from the MatrixNIR image (12 kernels) resulted in root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) value of 0.18. This was repeated on the MatrixNIR image of the 24 kernels which resulted in RMSEP of 0.18. The sisuChema image yielded RMSEP value of 0.29. The reproducible results obtained with the different data sets indicate that the method proposed in this paper has a real potential for future classification uses.
Resumo:
The variation in liveweight gain in grazing beef cattle as influenced by pasture type, season and year effects has important economic implications for mixed crop-livestock systems and the ability to better predict such variation would benefit beef producers by providing a guide for decision making. To identify key determinants of liveweight change of Brahman-cross steers grazing subtropical pastures, measurements of pasture quality and quantity, and diet quality in parallel with liveweight were made over two consecutive grazing seasons (48 and 46 weeks, respectively), on mixed Clitoria ternatea/grass, Stylosanthes seabrana/grass and grass swards (grass being a mixture of Bothriochloa insculpta cv. Bisset, Dichanthium sericeum and Panicum maximum var. trichoglume cv. Petrie). Steers grazing the legume-based pastures had the highest growth rate and gained between 64 and 142 kg more than those grazing the grass pastures in under 12 months. Using an exponential model, green leaf mass, green leaf %, adjusted green leaf % (adjusted for inedible woody legume stems), faecal near infrared reflectance spectroscopy predictions of diet crude protein and diet dry matter digestibility, accounted for 77, 74, 80, 63 and 60%, respectively, of the variation in daily weight gain when data were pooled across pasture types and grazing seasons. The standard error of the regressions indicated that 95% prediction intervals were large (+/- 0.42-0.64 kg/head.day) suggesting that derived regression relationships have limited practical application for accurately estimating growth rate. In this study, animal factors, especially compensatory growth effects, appeared to have a major influence on growth rate in relation to pasture and diet attributes. It was concluded that predictions of growth rate based only on pasture or diet attributes are unlikely to be accurate or reliable. Nevertheless, key pasture attributes such as green leaf mass and green leaf% provide a robust indication of what proportion of the potential growth rate of the grazing animals can be achieved.
Resumo:
Khaya senegalensis, African mahogany, a high-value hardwood, was introduced in the Northern Territory (NT) in the 1950s; included in various trials there and at Weipa, Q in the 1960s-1970s; planted on ex mine sites at Weipa (160 ha) until 1985; revived in farm plantings in Queensland and in trials in the NT in the 1990s; adopted for large-scale, annual planting in the Douglas-Daly region, NT from 2006 and is to have the planted area in the NT extended to at least 20,000 ha. The recent serious interest from plantation growers, including Forest Enterprises Australia Ltd (FEA), has seen the establishment of some large scale commercial plantations. FEA initiated the current study to process relatively young plantation stands from both Northern Territory and Queensland plantations to investigate the sawn wood and veneer recovery and quality from trees ranging from 14 years (NT – 36 trees) to 18-20 years (North Queensland – 31 trees). Field measures of tree size and straightness were complemented with log end splitting assessment and cross-sectional disc sample collection for laboratory wood properties measurements including colour and shrinkage. End-splitting scores assessed on sawn logs were relatively low compared to fast grown plantation eucalypts and did not impact processing negatively. Heartwood proportion in individual trees ranged from 50% up to 92 % of butt cross-sectional disc area for the visually-assessed dark coloured central heartwood and lighter coloured transition wood combined. Dark central heartwood proportion was positively related to tree size (R2 = 0.57). Chemical tests failed to assist in determining heartwood – sapwood boundary. Mean basic density of whole disc samples was 658 kg/m3 and ranged among trees from 603 to 712 kg/m3. When freshly sawn, the heartwood of African mahogany was orange-red to red. Transition wood appeared to be pinkish and the sapwood was a pale yellow colour. Once air dried the heartwood colour generally darkens to pinkish-brown or orange-brown and the effect of prolonged time and sun exposure is to darken and change the heartwood to a red-brown colour. A portable colour measurement spectrophotometer was used to objectively assess colour variation in CIE L*, a* and b* values over time with drying and exposure to sunlight. Capacity to predict standard colour values accurately after varying periods of direct sunlight exposure using results obtained on initial air-dried surfaces decreased with increasing time to sun exposure. The predictions are more accurate for L* values which represent brightness than for variation in the a* values (red spectrum). Selection of superior breeding trees for colour is likely to be based on dried samples exposed to sunlight to reliably highlight wood colour differences. A generally low ratio between tangential and radial shrinkages was found, which was reflected in a low incidence of board distortion (particularly cupping) during drying. A preliminary experiment was carried out to investigate the quality of NIR models to predict shrinkage and density. NIR spectra correlated reasonably well with radial shrinkage and air dried density. When calibration models were applied to their validation sets, radial shrinkage was predicted to an accuracy of 76% with Standard Error of Prediction of 0.21%. There was also a strong predictive power for wood density. These are encouraging results suggesting that NIR spectroscopy has good potential to be used as a non-destructive method to predict shrinkage and wood density using 12mm diameter increment core samples. Average green off saw recovery was 49.5% (range 40 to 69%) for Burdekin Agricultural College (BAC) logs and 41.9% (range 20 to 61%) for Katherine (NT) logs. These figures are about 10% higher than compared to 30-year-old Khaya study by Armstrong et al. (2007) however they are inflated as the green boards were not docked to remove wane prior to being tallied. Of the recovered sawn, dried and dressed volume from the BAC logs, based on the cambial face of boards, 27% could potentially be used for select grade, 40% for medium feature grade and 26% for high feature grades. The heart faces had a slightly higher recovery of select (30%) and medium feature (43%) grade boards with a reduction in the volume of high feature (22%) and reject (6%) grade boards. Distribution of board grades for the NT site aged 14 years followed very similar trends to those of the BAC site boards with an average (between facial and cambial face) 27% could potentially be used for select grade, 42% for medium feature grade, 26% for high feature grade and 5% reject. Relatively to some other subtropical eucalypts, there was a low incidence of borer attack. The major grade limiting defects for both medium and high feature grade boards recovered from the BAC site were knots and wane. The presence of large knots may reflect both management practices and the nature of the genetic material at the site. This stand was not managed for timber production with a very late pruning implemented at about age 12 years. The large amount of wane affected boards is indicative of logs with a large taper and the presence of significant sweep. Wane, knots and skip were the major grade limiting defects for the NT site reflecting considerable amounts of sweep with large taper as might be expected in younger trees. The green veneer recovered from billets of seven Khaya trees rotary peeled on a spindleless lathe produced a recovery of 83% of green billet volume. Dried veneer recovery ranged from 40 to 74 % per billet with an average of 64%. All of the recovered grades were suitable for use in structural ply in accordance to AS/NZ 2269: 2008. The majority of veneer sheets recovered from all billets was C grade (27%) with 20% making D grade and 13% B grade. Total dry sliced veneer recovery from the logs of the two largest logs from each location was estimated to be 41.1%. Very positive results have been recorded in this small scale study. The amount of colour development observed and the very reasonable recoveries of both sawn and veneer products, with a good representation of higher grades in the product distribution, is encouraging. The prospects for significant improvement in these results from well managed and productive stands grown for high quality timber should be high. Additionally, the study has shown the utility of non-destructive evaluation techniques for use in tree improvement programs to improve the quality of future plantations. A few trees combined several of the traits desired of individuals for a first breeding population. Fortunately, the two most promising trees (32, 19) had already been selected for breeding on external traits, and grafts of them are established in the seed orchard.
Resumo:
Acidity in terms of pH and titratable acids influences the texture and flavour of fermented dairy products, such as Kefir. However, the methods for determining pH and titratable acidity (TA) are time consuming. Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy is a non-destructive method, which simultaneously predicts multiple traits from a single scan and can be used to predict pH and TA. The best pH NIR calibration model was obtained with no spectral pre-treatment applied, whereas smoothing was found to be the best pre-treatment to develop the TA calibration model. Using cross-validation, the prediction results were found acceptable for both pH and TA. With external validation, similar results were found for pH and TA, and both models were found to be acceptable for screening purposes.
Resumo:
Hip height, body condition, subcutaneous fat, eye muscle area, percentage Bos taurus, fetal age and diet digestibility data were collected at 17 372 assessments on 2181 Brahman and tropical composite (average 28% Brahman) female cattle aged between 0.5 and 7.5 years of age at five sites across Queensland. The study validated the subtraction of previously published estimates of gravid uterine weight to correct liveweight to the non-pregnant status. Hip height and liveweight were linearly related (Brahman: P<0.001, R-2 = 58%; tropical composite P<0.001, R-2 = 67%). Liveweight varied by 12-14% per body condition score (5-point scale) as cows differed from moderate condition (P<0.01). Parallel effects were also found due to subcutaneous rump fat depth and eye muscle area, which were highly correlated with each other and body condition score (r = 0.7-0.8). Liveweight differed from average by 1.65-1.66% per mm of rump fat depth and 0.71-0.76% per cm(2) of eye muscle area (P<0.01). Estimated dry matter digestibility of pasture consumed had no consistent effect in predicting liveweight and was therefore excluded from final models. A method developed to estimate full liveweight of post-weaning age female beef cattle from the other measures taken predicted liveweight to within 10 and 23% of that recorded for 65 and 95% of cases, respectively. For a 95% chance of predicted group average liveweight (body condition score used) being within 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1% of actual group average liveweight required 23, 36, 62, 137 and 521 females, respectively, if precision and accuracy of measurements matches that used in the research. Non-pregnant Bos taurus female cattle were calculated to be 10-40% heavier than Brahmans at the same hip height and body condition, indicating a substantial conformational difference. The liveweight prediction method was applied to a validation population of 83 unrelated groups of cattle weighed in extensive commercial situations on 119 days over 18 months (20 917 assessments). Liveweight prediction in the validation population exceeded average recorded liveweight for weigh groups by an average of 19 kg (similar to 6%) demonstrating the difficulty of achieving accurate and precise animal measurements under extensive commercial grazing conditions.