35 resultados para penalized likelihood

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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It is common to model the dynamics of fisheries using natural and fishing mortality rates estimated independently using two separate analyses. Fishing mortality is routinely estimated from widely available logbook data, whereas natural mortality estimations have often required more specific, less frequently available, data. However, in the case of the fishery for brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay, both fishing and natural mortality rates have been estimated from logbook data. The present work extended the fishing mortality model to incorporate an eco-physiological response of tiger prawn to temperature, and allowed recruitment timing to vary from year to year. These ecological characteristics of the dynamics of this fishery were ignored in the separate model that estimated natural mortality. Therefore, we propose to estimate both natural and fishing mortality rates within a single model using a consistent set of hypotheses. This approach was applied to Moreton Bay brown tiger prawn data collected between 1990 and 2010. Natural mortality was estimated by maximum likelihood to be equal to 0.032 ± 0.002 week−1, approximately 30% lower than the fixed value used in previous models of this fishery (0.045 week−1).

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Spawning stock dynamics of 2 commercially important penaeid prawns, Metapenaeus bennettae and Penaeus esculentus, from 9 stations in Moreton Bay (27°15'S, 153°15'E), southeast Queensland, Australia, were examined. An egg production index (EPI), based on the relative abundance, proportion that were mature or ripe, and size of adult females, was used as a measure of egg production in the 2 populations. Egg production by M. bennettae was 20 to 30 higher than that by P. esculentus, extended over 7 to 8 mo each year and peaked from February to March (late summer to early autumn). Monthly patterns in egg production by M. bennettae varied between years. In contrast, P. esculentus produced most of its eggs in a single, clearly defined peak in October (spring), although production continued to March (early autumn) each year. The seasonal onset and subsequent decline in maturation in P. esculentus were rapid. Egg production by M. bennettae was several times higher at the 5 northern stations than at the 4 southern stations and negatively correlated with salinity during the main spawning period. Egg production by P. esculentus was less varied among stations and positively correlated with depth. P. esculentus appeared more likely than M. bennettae to experience recruitment overfishing because (1) the peak spawning period for P. esculentus was dependent on relatively few adult females spawning over a short period, and (2) the selectivity of trawl nets used in the bay was much higher for P. esculentus spawners than for those of M. bennettae. Compared with more northern populations, P. esculentus in Moreton Bay matured at a larger size, had lower incidences of insemination and mature or ripe females, and had a shorter spawning period. These results suggest the likelihood of recruitment overfishing in P. esculentus increases with increasing latitude.

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Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromone and fermenting bread dough were used to monitor seasonal incidence and abundance of the ripening fruit pests, Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), C. mutilatus Erichson and C. davidsoni Dobson in stone fruit orchards in the Leeton district of southern New South Wales during five seasons (1991-96). Adult beetles were trapped from September-May, but abundance varied considerably between years with the amount of rainfall in December-January having a major influence on population size and damage potential during the canning peach harvest (late February-March). Below average rainfall in December-January was associated with mean trap catches of < 10 beetles/trap/week in low dose pheromone traps during the harvest period in 1991/92 and 1993/94 and no reported damage to ripening fruit. Rainfall in December-January 1992/93 was more than double the average and mean trap catches ranged from 8-27 beetles/week during the harvest period with substantial damage to the peach crop. December-January rainfall was also above average in 1994/95 and 1995/96 and means of 50-300 beetles/trap/week were recorded in high dose pheromone traps during harvest periods. Carpophilus spp. caused economic damage to peach crops in both seasons. These data indicate that it may be possible to predict the likelihood of Carpophilus beetle damage to ripening stone fruit in inland areas of southern Australia, by routine pheromone-based monitoring of beetle populations and summer temperatures and rainfall.

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Sectors of the forest plantation industry in Australia are set to expand in the near future using species or hybrids of the spotted gums (Corymbia, Section Politaria). Plantations of these taxa have already been introduced across temperate and subtropical Australia, representing locally exotic introductions from native stands in Queensland and New South Wales. A literature review was undertaken to provide insights into the potential for pollen-mediated gene flow from these plantations into native populations. Three factors suggest that such gene flow is likely; (1) interspecific hybridisation within the genus has frequently been recorded, including between distantly related species from different sections, (2) apparent high levels of vertebrate pollinator activity may result in plantation pollen being moved over hundreds of kilometres, (3) much of the plantation estate is being established among closely related taxa and therefore few barriers to gene flow are expected. Across Australia, 20 of the 100 native Corymbia taxa were found to have regional level co-occurrence with plantations. These were located most notably within regions of north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland, however, co-occurrence was also found in south-west Western Australia and eastern Victoria. The native species found to have co-occurrence were then assessed for the presence of reproductive barriers at each step in the process of gene flow that may reduce the number of species at risk even further. The available data suggest three risk categories exist for Corymbia. The highest risk was for gene flow from plantations of spotted gums to native populations of spotted gums. This was based on the expected limited existence of pre- and post-zygotic barriers, substantial long-distance pollen dispersal and an apparent broad period of flowering in Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata plantations. The following risk category focussed on gene flow from Corymbia torelliana × C. c. variegata hybrid plantations into native C. c. variegata, as the barriers associated with the production and establishment of F1 hybrids have been circumvented. For the lowest risk category, Corymbia plantations may present a risk to other non-spotted gum species, however, further investigation of the particular cross-combinations is required. A list of research directions is provided to better quantify these risks. Empirical data will need to be combined within a risk assessment framework that will not only estimate the likelihood of exotic gene flow, but also consider the conservation status/value of the native populations. In addition, the potential impacts of pollen flow from plantations will need to be weighed up against their various economic and environmental benefits.

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This study investigated whether mixed-species designs can increase the growth of a tropical eucalypt when compared to monocultures. Monocultures of Eucalyptus pellita (E) and Acacia peregrina (A) and mixtures in various proportions (75E:25A, 50E:50A, 25E:75A) were planted in a replacement series design on the Atherton Tablelands of north Queensland, Australia. High mortality in the establishment phase due to repeated damage by tropical cyclones altered the trial design. Effects of experimental designs on tree growth were estimated using a linear mixed-effects model with restricted maximum likelihood analysis (REML). Volume growth of individual eucalypt trees were positively affected by the presence of acacia trees at age 5 years and this effect generally increased with time up to age 10 years. However, the stand volume and basal area increased with increasing proportions of E. pellita, due to its larger individual tree size. Conventional analysis did not offer convincing support for mixed-species designs. Preliminary individual-based modelling using a modified Hegyi competition index offered a solution and an equation that indicates acacias have positive ecological interactions (facilitation or competitive reduction) and definitely do not cause competition like a eucalypt. These results suggest that significantly increased in growth rates could be achieved with mixed-species designs. This statistical methodology could enable a better understanding of species interactions in similarly altered experiments, or undesigned mixed-species plantations.

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This study compares estimates of the census size of the spawning population with genetic estimates of effective current and long-term population size for an abundant and commercially important marine invertebrate, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus). Our aim was to focus on the relationship between genetic effective and census size that may provide a source of information for viability analyses of naturally occurring populations. Samples were taken in 2001, 2002 and 2003 from a population on the east coast of Australia and temporal allelic variation was measured at eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Moments-based and maximum-likelihood estimates of current genetic effective population size ranged from 797 to 1304. The mean long-term genetic effective population size was 9968. Although small for a large population, the effective population size estimates were above the threshold where genetic diversity is lost at neutral alleles through drift or inbreeding. Simulation studies correctly predicted that under these experimental conditions the genetic estimates would have non-infinite upper confidence limits and revealed they might be overestimates of the true size. We also show that estimates of mortality and variance in family size may be derived from data on average fecundity, current genetic effective and census spawning population size, assuming effective population size is equivalent to the number of breeders. This work confirms that it is feasible to obtain accurate estimates of current genetic effective population size for abundant Type III species using existing genetic marker technology.

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1. Mammalian predators are controlled by poison baiting in many parts of the world, often to alleviate their impacts on agriculture or the environment. Although predator control can have substantial benefits, the poisons used may also be potentially harmful to other wildlife. 2. Impacts on non-target species must be minimized, but can be difficult to predict or quantify. Species and individuals vary in their sensitivity to toxins and their propensity to consume poison baits, while populations vary in their resilience. Wildlife populations can accrue benefits from predator control, which outweigh the occasional deaths of non-target animals. We review recent advances in Australia, providing a framework for assessing non-target effects of poisoning operations and for developing techniques to minimize such effects. We also emphasize that weak or circumstantial evidence of non-target effects can be misleading. 3. Weak evidence that poison baiting presents a potential risk to non-target species comes from measuring the sensitivity of species to the toxin in the laboratory. More convincing evidence may be obtained by quantifying susceptibility in the field. This requires detailed information on the propensity of animals to locate and consume poison baits, as well as the likelihood of mortality if baits are consumed. Still stronger evidence may be obtained if predator baiting causes non-target mortality in the field (with toxin detected by post-mortem examination). Conclusive proof of a negative impact on populations of non-target species can be obtained only if any observed non-target mortality is followed by sustained reductions in population density. 4. Such proof is difficult to obtain and the possibility of a population-level impact cannot be reliably confirmed or dismissed without rigorous trials. In the absence of conclusive evidence, wildlife managers should adopt a precautionary approach which seeks to minimize potential risk to non-target individuals, while clarifying population-level effects through continued research.

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The ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer region was amplified and sequenced from a selection of specimens of the Sporobolus smut Ustilago sporoboli-indici. Phylogenetic comparison with other Ustilago and Sporisorium species revealed strong support for an evolutionary radiation of Ustilago species infecting the Chloridoideae and Pooideae, of which U. sporoboli-indici forms a major lineage. Comparisons are made with other groups of plant pathogenic fungi, and it is concluded that phylogenetic analyses of potential biocontrol agents are useful for identifying pathogens that are derived from evolutionary lineages that parasitize a wide range of unrelated plants. Such pathogens are less desirable as biocontrol agents as they may have a greater likelihood of infecting plants outside their normal host ranges.

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BACKGROUND: Glyphosate-resistant cotton varieties are an important tool for weed control in Australian cotton production systems. To increase the sustainability of this technology and to minimise the likelihood of resistance evolving through its use, weed scientists, together with herbicide regulators, industry representatives and the technology owners, have developed a framework that guides the use of the technology. Central to this framework is a crop management plan (CMP) and grower accreditation course. A simulation model that takes into account the characteristics of the weed species, initial gene frequencies and any associated fitness penalties was developed to ensure that the CMP was sufficiently robust to minimise resistance risks. RESULTS: The simulations showed that, when a combination of weed control options was employed in addition to glyphosate, resistance did not evolve over the 30 year period of the simulation. CONCLUSION: These simulations underline the importance of maintaining an integrated system for weed management to prevent the evolution of glyphosate resistance, prolonging the use of glyphosate-resistant cotton.

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From a study of 3 large half-sib families of cattle, we describe linkage between DNA polymorphisms on bovine chromosome 7 and meat tenderness. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) for Longissimus lumborum peak force (LLPF) and Semitendonosis adhesion (STADH) were located to this map of DNA markers, which includes the calpastatin ( CAST) and lysyl oxidase (LOX) genes. The LLPF QTL has a maximum lodscore of 4.9 and allele substitution of approximately 0.80 of a phenotypic standard deviation, and the peak is located over the CAST gene. The STADH QTL has a maximum lodscore of 3.5 and an allele substitution of approximately 0.37 of a phenotypic standard deviation, and the peak is located over the LOX gene. This suggests 2 separate likelihood peaks on the chromosome. Further analyses of meat tenderness measures in the Longissimus lumborum, LLPF and LL compression (LLC), in which outlier individuals or kill groups are removed, demonstrate large shifts in the location of LLPF QTL, as well as confirming that there are indeed 2 QTL on bovine chromosome 7. We found that both QTL are reflected in both LLPF and LLC measurements, suggesting that both these components of tenderness, myofibrillar and connective tissue, are detected by both measurements in this muscle.

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A restricted maximum likelihood analysis applied to an animal model showed no significant differences (P > 0.05) in pH value of the longissimus dorsi measured at 24 h post-mortem (pH24) between high and low lines of Large White pigs selected over 4 years for post-weaning growth rate on restricted feeding. Genetic and phenotypic correlations between pH24 and production and carcass traits were estimated using all performance testing records combined with the pH24 measurements (5.05-7.02) on slaughtered animals. The estimate of heritability for pH24 was moderate (0.29 ± 0.18). Genetic correlations between pH24 and production or carcass composition traits, except for ultrasonic backfat (UBF), were not significantly different from zero. UBF had a moderate, positive genetic correlation with pH24 (0.24 ± 0.33). These estimates of genetic correlations affirmed that selection for increased growth rate on restricted feeding is likely to result in limited changes in pH24 and pork quality since the selection does not put a high emphasis on reduced fatness.

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The objective of this study was to examine genetic changes in reproduction traits in sows (total number born (TNB), number born alive (NBA), average piglet birth weight (ABW) and number of piglets weaned (NW), body weight prior to mating (MW), gestation length (GL) and daily food intake during lactation (DFI)) in lines of Large White pigs divergently selected over 4 years for high and low post-weaning growth rate on a restricted ration. Heritabilities and repeatabilities of the reproduction traits were also determined. The analyses were carried out on 913 litter records using average information-restricted maximum likelihood method applied to single trait animal models. Estimates of heritability for most traits were small, except for ABW (0·33) and MW (0·35). Estimates of repeatability were slightly higher than those of heritability for TNB, NBA and NW, but they were almost identical for ABW, MW, GL and DFI. After 4 years of selection, the high growth line sows had significantly heavier body weight prior to mating and produced significantly more piglets born alive with heavier average birth weight than the low line sows. There were, however, no statistical differences between the selected lines in TNB or NW. The lower food intake of high relative to low line sows during lactation was not significant, indicating that daily food intake differences found between grower pigs in the high and low lines (2·71 v. 2·76 kg/day, s.e.d. 0·024) on ad libitum feeding were not fully expressed in lactating sows. It is concluded that selection for growth rate on the restricted ration resulted in beneficial effects on important measures of reproductive performance of the sows.

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This paper describes the development of a model, based on Bayesian networks, to estimate the likelihood that sheep flocks are infested with lice at shearing and to assist farm managers or advisers to assess whether or not to apply a lousicide treatment. The risk of lice comes from three main sources: (i) lice may have been present at the previous shearing and not eradicated; (ii) lice may have been introduced with purchased sheep; and (iii) lice may have entered with strays. A Bayesian network is used to assess the probability of each of these events independently and combine them for an overall assessment. Rubbing is a common indicator of lice but there are other causes too. If rubbing has been observed, an additional Bayesian network is used to assess the probability that lice are the cause. The presence or absence of rubbing and its possible cause are combined with these networks to improve the overall risk assessment.

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Avian haemophili demonstrating in vitro satellitic growth, also referred to as the V-factor or NAD requirement, have mainly been classified with Avibacterium paragallinarum (Haemophilus paragallinarum), Avibacterium avium (Pasteurella avium), Avibacterium volantium (Pasteurella volantium) and Avibacterium sp. A (Pasteurella species A). The aim of the present study was to assess the taxonomic position of 18 V-factor-requiring isolates of unclassified Haemophilus-like organisms isolated from galliforme, anseriforme, columbiforme and gruiforme birds as well as kestrels and psittacine birds including budgerigars by conventional phenotypic tests and 16S rRNA gene sequencing. All isolates shared phenotypical characteristics which allowed classification with Pasteurellaceae. Haemolysis of bovine red blood cells was negative. Haemin (X-factor) was not required for growth. Maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis including bootstrap analysis showed that six isolates were related to the avian 16S rRNA group and were classified as Avibacterium according to 16S rRNA sequence analysis. Surprisingly, the other 12 isolates were unrelated to Avibacterium. Two isolates were unrelated to any of the known 16S rRNA groups of Pasteurellaceae. Two isolates were related to Volucribacter of the avian 16S rRNA group. Seven isolates belonged to the Testudinis 16S rRNA group and out of these, two isolates were closely related to taxa 14 and 32 of Bisgaard, whereas four other isolates were found to form a genus-like group distantly related to taxon 40 and one isolated remained distantly related to other members of the Testudinis group. One isolate was closely related to taxon 26 (a member of Actinobacillus sensu stricto). The study documented major genetic diversity among V-factor-requiring avian isolates beyond the traditional interpretation that they only belong to Avibacterium, underlining the limited value of satellitic growth for identification of avian members of Pasteurellaceae. Our study also emphasized that these organisms will never be isolated without the use of special media satisfying the V-factor requirement.

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A replicated trial to determine effective chemical control methods for the invasive species, basket asparagus (Asparagus aethiopicus L. cv. Sprengeri) was conducted at Currumbin Hill, Queensland, from June 1999 to August 2000. Four herbicides (metsulfuron-methyl, dicamba, glyphosate and diesel) were applied at different times of the year (winter, spring, summer and autumn). Neat diesel applied to adult crowns effectively killed basket asparagus. However, germination of basket asparagus and other weeds was not prevented. An overall spray of 0.06 g metsulfuron-methyl (0.1 g Brush-Off®) + 1 mL BS 1000® L-1 water gave slower but more selective long-term control of basket asparagus when compared to diesel, especially when applied in winter and spring. High rates of foliar applied dicamba were most effective in spring and glyphosate splatter gunned on base of stems in autumn. The combination of increased selectivity, ease of application and likelihood of reduced environmental impacts on native plants, other than coast she-oak (Casuarina equisetifolia L. var. incana Benth.), of metsulfuron-methyl makes it more suitable for controlling large infestations of basket asparagus.